***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[RockinZ28]

Your not very diversified with a stock index fund and a targeted fund with a long target date. Almost all of your money is in equities. The 2040 fund probably has some bonds but is probably heavily in equities.

You might want to look into more diverse investments like REITs and commodities. There are funds for both but be sure to check their expenses and fees as well as any redemption restrictions.

Anything in particular for REITs? I see Vanguard has funds.

Was looking at a REIT investment website a few weeks ago, but it seemed profits were taxed as regular income, not long term capital gain rates?

Ah I see. surprised they wouldn't offer an institutional version of the total stock index, which is often better than admiral. Was it a smallish company? (I don't know the cutoff, but you might need employee #s in the 10-2k plus range to qualify for that). Otherwise, yeah--I would roll it into your personal IRA if I were you. Nothing to lose, only gains when you do that.

Pretty large international corporation. It's through Prudential Retirement. Know when I first started, Vanguard funds were not even an option, only like .8%+ expense funds. Then they added some Vanguard and I switched to that. What's weird is they have international stock admiral shares, but no VTSAX.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TIMber!!!

Don't be fooled however. Goldman was selling puts to the less informed all day long today.

As predicted, the puts Goldman sold were to suckers.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anything in particular for REITs? I see Vanguard has funds.

Was looking at a REIT investment website a few weeks ago, but it seemed profits were taxed as regular income, not long term capital gain rates?

Pretty large international corporation. It's through Prudential Retirement. Know when I first started, Vanguard funds were not even an option, only like .8%+ expense funds. Then they added some Vanguard and I switched to that. What's weird is they have international stock admiral shares, but no VTSAX.

I've been watching REITs since the 1990s. Here is my list of favorites:

AGNC....good, stable payer ... yield 11.11%
CMO....another long term winner....yield 8.69%
IVR......diversify.....yield 10.22%
NAT.....shipping company.. risky but well managed...yield 11.11%
NRZ....residential mortgages....yield 11.96%
NYMT....kind of volatile....yield 11.96%

And my favorite...issuing more shares recently and higher on the risk scale...but sill a stable player...

ORC....risk of another drop, but yield is very juicy...16.00%+ (if you never sell, and are not on margin, price doesn't matter that much). It also pays monthly dividends.

Spreading money evenly on all the above would be nice.

 

[Charmonium]

Anything in particular for REITs? I see Vanguard has funds.

Was looking at a REIT investment website a few weeks ago, but it seemed profits were taxed as regular income, not long term capital gain rates?

No idea for REITs. See if you can find a site that has a stock finder. That will let you select stocks based on various categories, past return, p/e range, capitalization, etc.

It makes sense that REIT dividends would be considered income. You're technically an owner of the properties in the REIT. So rent paid to the REIT is partially being paid to you - as income.

Sale of property in the REIT probably would be taxed as capital gains.

 

[bookem dano]

Any advice for investing and diversifying about 80k that's going to waste in my savings account? Probably minimum of 5 years.

Vast majority of my investments are in retirement accounts, and of that it's mostly VTSMX and Vanguard 2040 fund. Maxed out my Roth IRA, company has no 401k unfortunately, and I'm putting $500/wk into Betterment. Just opened a LendingClub account and threw 6k in there, will see how that goes.

Debts are a couple car loans, one at 0%. Other at 2.3%, but that should be easily beatable. Making double payments anyway so it will be paid off in 2.5 years.

Interested in playing with some individual stocks as well, with maybe a couple grand I don't mind losing to start. Free/super low cost trades?

If VORX is your Vangaurd 2040, it already has 51.91% in VTSMX.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:VFORX

If you have quicken, it has a portfolio X-ray feature that drills into your funds to show you where your money is actually invested. At the interpreter tab it shows high level and sector information and at the stock intersection level it shows you all your stocks and percentage of your portfolio. Without looking into the top holdings of some funds you may not know that you are over exposed on a company.

For instance I have JNJ by itself. The stock intersection tells me that my VFINX, MADVX, SPY, and TRRMX also have that as part of their current portfolio bringing JNJ up to 6.85% of my portfolio.

I bought Unilever 2/27/2017, it's up 15.5%. They bought the dollar shave club prior to my investment and they just made a couple acquisitions and rejected a Berkshire Hathaway takeover.

Look into IDEXX - I turned down a job there, and since then their stock is up 275% the last 5 years.
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:IDXX

 

[zinfamous]

Look into IDEXX - I turned down a job there, and since then their stock is up 275% the last 5 years.

:beer:

 

[FelixDeCat]

The QQQs have risen from 115 to 141 since Trump was elected (25%). Typically stocks give back a little in the summer months but this rally simply keeps going. I think any sign of legislative progress will give the market another 5-10% kick. Otherwise a good 10% correction might be in the cards before year end.

 

[Charmonium]

I'm torn between thinking this is a lot like 1999 and thinking that maybe the market really does know something we don't. I always make the argument that p/e's are trailing measures while expected earnings are leading measures. So if the leading measures are pointing to improved profitability, then who cares what the trailing p/e's are. Then again, when p/e's seem too high or 'priced to perfection' as they said back in 1999, you should probably take that as a warning. I don't think things are priced to perfection just yet but we seem to be going in that direction.

BTW, has anyone see IMP? He seems to have just disappeared.

 

[KB]

I'm torn between thinking this is a lot like 1999 and thinking that maybe the market really does know something we don't. I always make the argument that p/e's are trailing measures while expected earnings are leading measures. So if the leading measures are pointing to improved profitability, then who cares what the trailing p/e's are. Then again, when p/e's seem too high or 'priced to perfection' as they said back in 1999, you should probably take that as a warning. I don't think things are priced to perfection just yet but we seem to be going in that direction.

BTW, has anyone see IMP? He seems to have just disappeared.

We are no where near 1999 levels, which saw a Shiller PE near 45. We are now near 29.
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

Analysts are still expect earnings will grow this year so we may still have room to go.
http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings-growth

 

[dullard]

I'm torn between thinking this is a lot like 1999 and thinking that maybe the market really does know something we don't.

I think it is more simple than that. The latest batch of numbers from the states have shown a significant drop in income taxes in the last tax year despite growing GDP. Main reason? Income, when possible, was shifted from 2016 to 2017. The easiest way to shift income form one year to the next? Delay selling stocks.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-states-taxes-idUSKBN16Y29T

I think we'll have a stock price run-up until (a) the taxes are cut so that the wealthiest can cash in on the delay which might mean a major correction or (b) taxes are not cut so that the wealthy who wanted to delay give up which would mean a minor correction.

Thus, I predict a very slow increase in stocks until around August when the budget again comes into the news.

 

[debian0001]

I've been not trying to play stocks for the past year or so and have saw things rise.. specifically AMD, APPL, and LL and they have all gone up.. I was thinking there would be a stock crash. I can't imagine how things are all going well.. especially with the housing market. I don't understand how so many people can afford overpriced houses...

 

[jpiniero]

We are no where near 1999 levels, which saw a Shiller PE near 45. We are now near 29.
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

It's still historically high. The median is 16. Hell, even a pushback to 25 would mean stocks would need to fall almost 20%. Stocks however have been pretty much flat outside of a few companies (including Apple, which is mostly iPhone 8 hype)

 

[jpiniero]

So the odds of a rate hike are now at 99.6%. Might actually get over 1! Shocking, I know.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So the odds of a rate hike are now at 99.6%. Might actually get over 1! Shocking, I know.

1%? I think its time for a rate cut.

 

[zinfamous]

So how are we supposed to get magical 6%, er I mean 5%--no wait, 3% GDP growth for 10+ years if the Feds hike the rate again!?

 

[Charmonium]

The effective fed funds rate (EFFR) is at the high end of the current .75-1.00 range.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

So I would expect the fed to wait until we go over 1%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The QQQ's hit an all time high of $143.90 last Thursday, then fell on Friday & Monday by a total of $4.67 to $139.23 (3.25% in two days).

 

[ImpulsE69]

I was playing the bounces of MU most of the day

 

[FelixDeCat]

Uh oh ... unexpected rate hike ... timber!!!

 

[Scarpozzi]

KR - Kroger dropped near 20% yesterday after they downsized their projections. They're one of the larger grocers in the country and despite the debt they have on the books are a solid buy. I got in this morning at $21 at market open. If you're looking for something to buy and hold, you can't beat it right now.

 

[Exterous]

KR - Kroger dropped near 20% yesterday after they downsized their projections. They're one of the larger grocers in the country and despite the debt they have on the books are a solid buy. I got in this morning at $21 at market open. If you're looking for something to buy and hold, you can't beat it right now.

They took another hit from Amazon buying Whole Foods

 

[Scarpozzi]

They took another hit from Amazon buying Whole Foods

That didn't appear to affect their numbers today unless it deterred folks from investing in them on the rebound. The price has been pretty stable all day, only increasing about $1.30 as of now.

Whole Foods only has around 460 stores if I remember....while they're competitors, the acquisition and the organic foods segment of the market shelters Kroger a lot. Kroger is carrying a lot more debt because of their acquisitions and store remodels, but they are huge. Whole Foods was definitely a better buy if you jumped on it before the Amazon announcement, only because the announcement pretty much locked the price.

 

[Exterous]

That didn't appear to affect their numbers today unless it deterred folks from investing in them on the rebound. The price has been pretty stable all day, only increasing about $1.30 as of now.

Whole Foods only has around 460 stores if I remember....while they're competitors, the acquisition and the organic foods segment of the market shelters Kroger a lot. Kroger is carrying a lot more debt because of their acquisitions and store remodels, but they are huge. Whole Foods was definitely a better buy if you jumped on it before the Amazon announcement, only because the announcement pretty much locked the price.

Given how it affected other grocers like Walmart target Costco and the like its almost certain it depressed the stock

 

[FelixDeCat]

What I love about the Whole Foods acquisition is possibly free shipping for all Amazon items (free p/u at the store).

 

[Charmonium]

I don't know what the big deal is. WF has 431 stores total. Kroger has over 2700. Yes I get that this now gives Amazon that many physical outlets but w/o spending a shit ton of money on expansion and redesign, they're not going to be able to use these for much more than selling groceries. Even Peapod wasn't able to use their existing stores for their home delivery service. Shoprite does but by the time you pay for your 'personal shopper' it almost isn't worth it.