***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[Ken g6]

I don't know what the big deal is. WF has 431 stores total. Kroger has over 2700. Yes I get that this now gives Amazon that many physical outlets but w/o spending a shit ton of money on expansion and redesign, they're not going to be able to use these for much more than selling groceries. Even Peapod wasn't able to use their existing stores for their home delivery service. Shoprite does but by the time you pay for your 'personal shopper' it almost isn't worth it.

Two words: drone launchpads.

 

[JEDI]

Even Peapod wasn't able to use their existing stores for their home delivery service.

im surprised.
why couldn't they?

 

[Charmonium]

im surprised.
why couldn't they?

I'm not sure. I did ask someone in corporate about that once when I was calling to complain about something but I can't remember if they gave me a plausible answer.

My guess is that there's too much volume to handle employees picking orders and customers roaming the aisles. I used to order from peapod and I can't remember what their cutoff time was but I think it was pretty early. I'm thinking around 4pm maybe? So while you had the overnight period to do the picking I don't think that was enough time.

There's also the issue of stock management. The demands for the home delivery service and in-store customers is probably different.

Edit - but shop rite does it that way - at least last time I used them. But they're more expensive since they charge you for the 'personal shopper.'

 

[JEDI]

Uh oh ... unexpected rate hike ... timber!!!

wait... what?!
1.25% now?
so prime=4.25%?

time to pay off my HELOC!

 

[Scarpozzi]

I don't know what the big deal is. WF has 431 stores total. Kroger has over 2700. Yes I get that this now gives Amazon that many physical outlets but w/o spending a shit ton of money on expansion and redesign, they're not going to be able to use these for much more than selling groceries. Even Peapod wasn't able to use their existing stores for their home delivery service. Shoprite does but by the time you pay for your 'personal shopper' it almost isn't worth it.

That was my point in stating that Kroger is a solid buy, but they're hurt by debt and inability to grow. Whole Foods stock may have less room to climb based on the stock valuation, but they have plenty of markets to expand into and with the help of Amazon can warehouse and sell many products using prime shipping, Pantry, and Prime Now services where it's available.

Grocery stores make their money by managing perishables and being accessible to their patrons. I don't see a grocer as large as Kroger failing for quite a few years until the stores get bought out and displaced by another, more successful chain.

 

[ponyo]

That was my point in stating that Kroger is a solid buy, but they're hurt by debt and inability to grow. Whole Foods stock may have less room to climb based on the stock valuation, but they have plenty of markets to expand into and with the help of Amazon can warehouse and sell many products using prime shipping, Pantry, and Prime Now services where it's available.

Grocery stores make their money by managing perishables and being accessible to their patrons. I don't see a grocer as large as Kroger failing for quite a few years until the stores get bought out and displaced by another, more successful chain.

Aldi and Lidl are going to put real hurt on Kroger and everyone else. This Whole Foods/Amazon deal is just noise. But Aldi is really gaining steam in the US and between Aldi, Trader Joe's, Lidl, and new focused Walmart, it's going to get real ugly in the grocery business.

 

[Scarpozzi]

Aldi and Lidl are going to put real hurt on Kroger and everyone else. This Whole Foods/Amazon deal is just noise. But Aldi is really gaining steam in the US and between Aldi, Trader Joe's, Lidl, and new focused Walmart, it's going to get real ugly in the grocery business.

Yeah....Aldi is expanding into new markets and can cover a lot of grocery needs....they're also somewhat vertically integrated and staffed to minimize waste to the max. Their business model is amazing. However, grocery stores' success are often maximized based on location....and the number of patrons AND products you can fit in the store... What you'll see is that the single lane Aldi insists on creating to have people walk by snack foods and cereals is what has people filling up their carts before they can divert to the other areas. This creates a bottleneck and they ultimately can only support a smaller number of patrons as a result of it.

At some level, Aldi reminds me a lot of discount or salvage grocery stores, such as Save-a-lot: https://save-a-lot.com/ They both display their inventory in very similar fashion, but Save-a-lot is typically better-staffed...while Aldi typically has better specialty food selections. I expect Aldi to continue growth, but you'll see a large number of traditionalists continue to shop at the typically massive grocery stores we grew up going to and perhaps, Aldi will thrive the population-dense areas they tend to expand into.

What cracks me up is this article:
https://research.capitaloneinvestin...articles&symbol=KR&&doc=2477-9618805-12819251

It suggests that Kroger lost steam as a result of the Amazon news. The 12% loss happened before the Amazon announcement. I only know because I was watching.

 

[Charmonium]

I thought Aldi was mainly a low-end retailer targeting budget conscious shoppers. Is that not accurate? If so, I'll have to check one out.

I eat a lot of prepared food and the best store for that in my area is a super stop and shop. And even they scrimp on the space they give to brands like Morning Star. Yet they have 3.5 rows of frozen food freezers.

What would I find in the way of prepared food at an Aldi?

 

[FelixDeCat]

I don't like Aldis to be honest. If you like it - more power to you!

The shelves are usually stocked with whatever they could scrounge up for that particular store. The cashiers are half ass and barely care. The no bagging thing really sucks. Did I mention you pay to use carts?

Their store brand is pretty low quality - until you get used it. My parents are big fans, but I rarely if ever shop there. I seem to have one bad experience after another at Aldis.

In a nutshell they are a dollar store who pretends to be upscale, with a penchant for extreme stinginess.

 

[KB]

I thought Aldi was mainly a low-end retailer targeting budget conscious shoppers. Is that not accurate? If so, I'll have to check one out.

I eat a lot of prepared food and the best store for that in my area is a super stop and shop. And even they scrimp on the space they give to brands like Morning Star. Yet they have 3.5 rows of frozen food freezers.

What would I find in the way of prepared food at an Aldi?

Last time I went to ALDI, the only prepared foods they had were canned or in a pouch. They had nothing like Wegmans prepared food aisles. They only thing I like about ALDI is the cheap European products like Swiss chocolate and Austrian beer mustard. The ALDIs near me compete with Walmart and shoppers more than Target and Whole Foods.

 

[Cal166]

It's $.25 to borrow their cart and you get it back when you bring the cart back. Think it's a great idea, doesn't require a person to restock the carts and you don't see lazy people leaving their cart all over the place.

 

[zinfamous]

I don't like Aldis to be honest. If you like it - more power to you!

The shelves are usually stocked with whatever they could scrounge up for that particular store. The cashiers are half ass and barely care. The no bagging thing really sucks. Did I mention you pay to use carts?

Their store brand is pretty low quality - until you get used it. My parents are big fans, but I rarely if ever shop there. I seem to have one bad experience after another at Aldis.

In a nutshell they are a dollar store who pretends to be upscale, with a penchant for extreme stinginess.

If you can't bag your own groceries, I consider you sub-human. There, I've said it. I fucking hate waiting for some lazy fatass that just stands there until someone else does the work they are supposed to be doing, holding up the entire line. Bag your own groceries, people. It isn't difficult, and in various states this is already required.

If you can't bring your own bags and do this all yourself, you're subhuman. There, I've said it.

You don't pay for the carts, you put down a "deposit." You get your precious quarter back when you return it. It's the european model of eliminating waste and being responsible. The sooner all US stores adopt these far more sane policies, the better we will all be as humans. The workers there are actually super fast, as I believe they are required to clear your products off the belt within 30 seconds. So, not sure what your complaint is there.

As for the products...yes, they aren't top shelf and most stores do look kind of junky, but that is where they realize much of the savings in their prices. They are far from a dollar store, as the many of their products are actually higher quality than what you will find in most US markets: the cheese is better, but limited in selection. Produce, afaik, is generally more local.

Aldi isn't really a one-stop shop for groceries, but it probably is for some people. They are also currently undergoing a large renovation of many of their stores to try and bring it more in line with typical markets. One of the ones near me has eliminated that single-lane model that forces you through the junk as soon as you enter. It's more open and the produce and meat sections are cleaner and more organized. No wonder it's nearly impossible to find a parking space at that one on weekends.

 

[Charmonium]

It's $.25 to borrow their cart and you get it back when you bring the cart back. Think it's a great idea, doesn't require a person to restock the carts and you don't see lazy people leaving their cart all over the place.

You would think it's a good idea except there must be a reason that most stores got rid of that practice. I remember may 10 or 15 years ago pretty much every supermarket was doing that. It sort of irritated me even though I normally return my cart to a pen or the store anyway. It bothered me that I was, in some sense, being "forced" to. Of course I wasn't and didn't actually care about losing a quarter but the psychology involved is interesting. Most people won't leave their quarter in the cart.

Anyway, several years ago virtually everyone got rid of those devices on their carts. I was happy to see that because it meant extra jobs for low-end store employees - people with no skills who were trying to get started. And honestly, I'm not sure those folks ever really went away since even if the devices were 100% effective, you still needed to have someone round up the carts from the corrals.

edit: oh, as for the bagging issue . . . I think that the both the cashier and customer should do the bagging. That's the fastest solution and that's what I always do.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ set for *another* 52 week high today $143.50....thanks Trump!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gold back to $1150?

 

[dullard]

Gold back to $1150?

Gold tends to do the reverse of interest rates. That is because gold returns 0% interest. The only way to gain on gold is to convince someone else to pay more for it than you did. Compare that to bonds which have a similar "safe" image. If bonds pay nothing, then it is fairly easy to move from bonds that pay ~0% to gold that pays 0%. But as bond rates go up, gold gets less and less attractive. When choosing between a bond that pays 3% or 5% or eventually more vs. gold paying 0%, it gets harder and harder to choose gold as the "safe" investment.

Here is a good image of the inverse correlation of interest rates to gold price changes. It isn't perfectly linear, but it does show a decent trend:
http://www.hindecapital.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/img1.jpg

As another piece of evidence, the US started down the path of putting its interest rates from near 6.5% in Dec 2000 with most of the interest rate cuts done by Dec 2001 (1.8%). While gold hit its last minimum when? March 2001 - right in the middle of a historical major interest rate cut.

Interest rates are at the cusp of rising:

• The US has increased rates slowly since Nov 2016 (technically Dec 2015 but that had almost no impact on actual rates, the rates are really moving since Nov 2016). Gold has dropped 7% since Nov 2016.
• In June 2017, Europe took the first step towards signaled a possible rise in the future. Gold dropped 5% since then: https://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-drops-reference-to-future-interest-rate-cut-1496923503

 

[Charmonium]

Another way to too look at it is supply and demand. Higher interest rates are associated with a tightening of the money supply since interest rates are the price of money. As money becomes more valuable and the amount of gold remains relatively static, the amount of gold a fixed amount of money buys increases.

This also works well for analyzing the price of gold vis a vis foreign exchange rates. As the value of the dollar declines relative to other currencies, the amount of gold it can buy declines so the price goes up.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Posted March 19, 2017....

Local rabble-rouser and noted investor Steve "M" (<so as to not fall in search results) has laid out a case for SNAP going under $17 that I agree with.

1) First of all, SNAP shares are *not* voting shares so many institutions are boycotting them out of principal. That removes a big layer of support.

2) Second there is lockup period of six months before insiders can start selling shares and the game with IPOs is to short shares before they can sell.

3) SNAP shares were set to go public at $17 and thats seems to be the target of shorts, eliminating all premium for this money loser.

GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!

SNAP Snap Inc. 15.47 -1.52 -8.95%

McGowan was right!

 

[ImpulsE69]

That wasn't unexpected by..well...almost anyone..but then what do I know, I still don't know why people keep dumping money into Amazon.

 

[FelixDeCat]

That wasn't unexpected by..well...almost anyone..but then what do I know, I still don't know why people keep dumping money into Amazon.

Shorting stock is an art. Anyone can go long but it takes timing and guts to be short. Back in March SNAP fell from the $20s back to $17 and change. If you thought the next stop would SOON be $15+ (a nice $2 short) you would have shorted in March......HOWEVER>>>> When the stock did fall that low in March it soon received several upgrades very quickly propping it back up $5 to the price of almost $23!!

Had you been short in March most likely you would have been a PANICKY BEAR and covered before you owed your broker some margin call money.

Only NOW, four months later, do we finally see $15+....... and while that was "predictable" ...... the timing had to be right.



My personal best short was 1500 shares of New Century Financial at $16.00 back in 2007 on a Friday afternoon. They filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the wee hours Monday morning and the stock opened at $2.50. Nice to start the week with an instant profit of $20,000. I covered immediately at the open, which turned out to be premature as the stocked closed at .87 cents by the end of the day.

This was not long after Bear Sterns went belly up. I worked for a mortgage company for 15 years by this point and knew all these companies were in trouble. They were highly leveraged on bad mortgage paper facing margin calls they could not meet.

I had no idea that one year later that these bankruptcies would lead to a GLOBAL credit crises and foreclose mess that would continue until late 2012!! And in the meantime the DOW would fall from 15,000 to 6,000 over the next 18 months starting in 2007 until 2009.

Scary times.

But there were opportunities out there in 2008 - like Apple at $75 ($700 by 2016) - or VRX for $8 ($265 by 2015 now back to $9.25 in 4/2017)

 

[KB]

Posted March 19, 2017....



GOOOOOAAAAALLLLL!!!!

SNAP Snap Inc. 15.47 -1.52 -8.95%

McGowan was right!

Are you short SNAP then? Had SNAP gone public when their user count was 80 million, then the stock would be $50+ now. But they went public just as their user count is plateauing around 161 million and instagram stories came out, which means its still downhill from here. I still won't short though. Facebook did something similar and look at it now.

 

[Banana]

Record sales on 2017 AMZN Prime Day - More than 2016 Black Friday!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/12/amaz...ecord-event-grew-by-more-than-60-percent.html

 

[FIVR]

AMZN is way overweight but it would make sense that a "special" individual like Dethbycows would be heavily invested in a company with a P/E way over 100. I bet you recommend buying NFLX and TSLA right now too.



I'm up over 60% on Jul 28 AMD 13.5 calls. I expect 300% plus gains. AMD has made me so much money since Feb 2016 . There is no better stock.

 

[FIVR]

I'm buying January 2019 INTC 28 Puts and I'm going to ride intel until its fabs get bought out. What a great time to be an investor! Even if the market tanks, I will make bank off of INTC's downfall. If it goes up, I make bank on AMD's rise. I can't lose.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Are you short SNAP then? Had SNAP gone public when their user count was 80 million, then the stock would be $50+ now. But they went public just as their user count is plateauing around 161 million and instagram stories came out, which means its still downhill from here. I still won't short though. Facebook did something similar and look at it now.

I haven't traded anything since April. But I like to watch the markets nonetheless. And yes I do remember FB at $17. I was long some calls at the time and decided to take a loss. If I had just bought the stupid shares and held on when they found a way to monetize mobile successfully I would have done well.

I think SNAP at best wont be much better than TWTR as far as a long term investment.