***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[jpiniero]

Hmm, if Trump really is in trouble re:Flynn it might be a good time to pop the asset bubble instead of taking the tax cuts and postponing it a year or two.

Just sayin'...

 

[zinfamous]

SO, this is the Trump effect, right?

 

[ImpulsE69]

Well on the other hand, it MOSTLY rebounded. I watched my portfolio drop 10% and come back about 8%.

 

[dullard]

I'd actually stay clear of both at the moment. Both stocks are overvalued in my mind, unless you are looking at short term plays...With stocks, it isn't AMD vs. Intel since neither and both are also options.

You don't know how to value a company, that is pretty clear. Both overvalued? Lmao

AMD is a steal while INTC is an overvalued pig of a stock that can't get out of its own way. Watch an learn - AMD will be $20 in less than 6 months while INTC will be back in the 30s if they're lucky.

~1 month checkup since Nov 2 prices: AMD down 7.82%, Intel down 6.87% all while the bulk of the stock market is up.

Can you please keep making projections, since I clearly don't know how to value a company? I'd like to keep doing the opposite of what you say to do.

 

[FIVR]

~1 month checkup since Nov 2 prices: AMD down 7.82%, Intel down 6.87% all while the bulk of the stock market is up.

Can you please keep making projections, since I clearly don't know how to value a company? I'd like to keep doing the opposite of what you say to do.

lol. Did you think I could predict the future? Sorry to disappoint you.


I will keep making predictions and keep making money. How is your INTC investment doing this week? Not so good? My AAPL 170 strike calls are still doing fine. Today I bought AMD January 2019 $10 strike calls. for 2.23. Why don't you bookmark this post so you can come back later to see if I've lost money and "prove" that I am not really from the future? I'm sure your findings will be revelatory!

 

[dullard]

How is your INTC investment doing this week? Not so good? My AAPL 170 strike calls are still doing fine. Today I bought AMD January 2019 $10 strike calls. for 2.23. Why don't you bookmark this post so you can come back later to see if I've lost money and "prove" that I am not really from the future? I'm sure your findings will be revelatory!

I don't own any individual INTC stock, as would be noticed by my repeatedly saying that BOTH AMD and INTC were overvalued. I probably do have some through mutual funds though. Those portions of the mutual funds would be down. Have no fear, I'll keep coming back to see how your 6 month prediction worked out.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Quick question... Come 2018... For my 401k contributions (have 2 of them, one for the wife)...

Which one does ATOT think is most likely to happen...
1) Max out contributions now, prices are as low as they will go for 2018
2) average out contributions so it equals out at the end of the year roughly
3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

 

[zinfamous]

Quick question... Come 2018... For my 401k contributions (have 2 of them, one for the wife)...

Which one does ATOT think is most likely to happen...
1) Max out contributions now, prices are as low as they will go for 2018
2) average out contributions so it equals out at the end of the year roughly
3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

I don't know anything but here is what I think:

Market is going to explode a bit once this tax bill passes. Wall street sees their Golden God in the sky and goes berserk for several months. If the correction happens, it will be later in the year when the likely democrat surge happens and retakes the House...unlikely the Senate but who knows. ....but IIRC, the corporate tax breaks don't kick in until 2019 or 2020 is that correct? I know they have to cover the deficit that this creates but I don't remember if the new bill delays the corporate break or ends the piddly income tax breaks to cover that sooner than planned...or both.

Anyway, WS is going to be high as fuck for several months regardless of when their Golden Showers start, so I think when it corrects, it will be ~Octobrish to November and may end up being something like 3-5% less than what we see now...which added to a hypothetical year's high at that point might end up being an actual 10-15-20% drop in a manner of weeks....which actually means real panic, right?

So come January 2019...I dunno. I plan on perfecting my shoe leather soup recipe by then, because I will probably need it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Quick question... Come 2018... For my 401k contributions (have 2 of them, one for the wife)...

Which one does ATOT think is most likely to happen...
1) Max out contributions now, prices are as low as they will go for 2018
2) average out contributions so it equals out at the end of the year roughly
3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

I have used option 3 for a while now. Ill start using a Health Savings Account to meet my outrageous Obamacare deductible in 2018, so I have to redirect about $200 a month there. That does not include the monthly premium!

 

[Exterous]

3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

I wish I had book marked the study but there was a well researched study that showed that due to the inability to accurately predict a correction most investors who try to time them lose out on more money than if they would have invested as normal and ridden out the correction. A huge part of the issue are the gains before and after the correction and that corrections tend to be short (~100 days). The average correction reduces the stock market by around 14% or so but the rebound usually comes in around 16% or so and those gains come very quickly meaning you really have to do a great job predicting the bottom. When you combine timing difficulties with the benefits of the run up and rebound it found people worrying about corrections enough to change their investment strategy end up with 4% lower returns over a 12 month period (with the correction right in the middle of the 12 months) than those who made not changes to their investment plan

 

[repoman0]

3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

Regardless of what you think will happen, why would you do this? Just keep it maxed and shift contribution investment allocations around. Some international stock market, bonds, hell mine has a money market that returns like 0.1% guaranteed and another strange insurance product that returns 3% guaranteed. Then just shift back to US stock market when the correction comes.

However as others have pointed out, probably best to just keep buying in all year.

 

[dullard]

For my 401k contributions (have 2 of them, one for the wife)...

Which one does ATOT think is most likely to happen...
1) Max out contributions now, prices are as low as they will go for 2018
2) average out contributions so it equals out at the end of the year roughly
3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

My philosophy is to NOT gamble with my retirement. I go with the tried and true method of #2. It is boring, but for those of us without inside information, it has been proven to be the best option over and over again. Plus, most companies don't allow #1 since most companies cap contributions to your 401k on each paycheck. Neither my wife nor I could do #1 if we wanted to.

With any EXTRA money, that is where I am willing to gamble. I own some non-retirement stocks and for the most part, I have timed the bottom quite well with them (I don't usually time the top very well, but I'm constrained with tax timing). But, there are other times that I failed miserably doing so (such as I haven't purchased any non-retirement account stocks this year and I should have). I'm willing to gamble a bit with the money that I don't count on.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I wish I had book marked the study but there was a well researched study that showed that due to the inability to accurately predict a correction most investors who try to time them lose out on more money than if they would have invested as normal and ridden out the correction. A huge part of the issue are the gains before and after the correction and that corrections tend to be short (~100 days). The average correction reduces the stock market by around 14% or so but the rebound usually comes in around 16% or so and those gains come very quickly meaning you really have to do a great job predicting the bottom. When you combine timing difficulties with the benefits of the run up and rebound it found people worrying about corrections enough to change their investment strategy end up with 4% lower returns over a 12 month period (with the correction right in the middle of the 12 months) than those who made not changes to their investment plan

I think I remember reading that same study which is why I asked this question.

That is basically what happened 2 years ago - I had my contributions set to average out for the year - BUT when we had the oil downfall correction towards the beginning of the year that is when I cranked up my contributions to the max because I knew it wasn't getting any lower that year.

 

[JEDI]

Quick question... Come 2018... For my 401k contributions (have 2 of them, one for the wife)...

Which one does ATOT think is most likely to happen...
1) Max out contributions now, prices are as low as they will go for 2018
2) average out contributions so it equals out at the end of the year roughly
3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

I predict correction in Jan.
People are going to take profits.

To answer your question, #1&2 are the same.
Ie: annual basis instead of monthly.

You can max out 401k in Jan 2018?

 

[dullard]

I predict correction in Jan.
People are going to take profits.

You can max out 401k in Jan 2018?

I predict that 2018 will be volatile. People have delayed selling any stock this year as next year will have lower taxes. Thus, there will be a lot of profit taking. Corporations will be transferring their money from overseas (which in many cases is just invested back in the US stocks). So, to transfer that money, they'll have to sell US stocks. But, as soon as the money is back in the country, they'll be buying back their own shares and paying massive dividends which would increase prices. So, ultimately I see strong forces both up and down. Which one wins is beyond my ability to predict, so I will just predict volatility as those forces fight it out.

If he and his spouse both make at least $222k each, and both companies allow ~100% of the salary to go to the 401K, then yes, he can max it out in Jan.

 

[Charmonium]

I'll just leave this here - from Dave Wilson at Bloomberg

U.S. stocks have so much momentum that they’re likely to keep on rising for a while, Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group LLC, wrote in a note Friday. Ramsey cited data on the S&P 500 Index and its 14-week relative strength index, which closed last week at 83.4, its highest level since January 1959. The S&P 500 and the relative-strength gauge peaked at the same time only twice in 15 bull markets since index calculations started in 1928. The simultaneous highs occurred in 1938, not shown in the chart, and 1980.

 

[woodman1999]

So what is everyone's biggest regret of the year? Maybe something more specific than just not buying at the low and selling at the high... or "shoulda played bitcoin"

I think at this point, mine was not taking on more NVDA and not getting into ISRG at all. I used to play ISRG a lot when my previous employer didn't have a 60 day buy and hold policy. Once that came into play, I stopped paying attention to the stock.

NVDA was a purchase at the same time i bought AMD. We all know how that played out since June. Anyway, hindsight is pretty unhealthy when trading, but that doesn't mean i don't have it 20/20.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I thought 2017 would have some kind of a dip/correction. Obviously I was mistaken, Oh well, no real loss.

Of course there is the bitcoin narrative, but that's stupid just like saying "I wish I invested in Apple/Amazon 10 years ago".

Overall no regrets, maxed out retirements all around so I'm happy.

 

[Exterous]

So what is everyone's biggest regret of the year? Maybe something more specific than just not buying at the low and selling at the high... or "shoulda played bitcoin"

I'm pretty happy with this year given the chunks of APPL and NFLX I bought in early 2016 but I didn't really make any major moves this year. I already have a fair bit of APPL in index funds and wanted to lock in some of the gains in NFLX so I sold a few shares and moved the proceeds into an index fund. Might find out that was a mistake down the road but I think a decision to lock in gains of that size is defensible for future me. The biggest regret would probably be being slightly underweight in my international holdings (32% instead of the targeted 35%) but it was within my re-balance band and with an aggregate return over 20% for the year at this point thats nitpicking.

 

[JEDI]

I thought 2017 would have some kind of a dip/correction. Obviously I was mistaken, Oh well, no real loss.

im betting the correction will happen in Jan 2018 so sold $500k of my stocks and bought vwetx (long term investment bonds).
lets see what happens a year from now (dec 2018).

 

[Udgnim]

im betting the correction will happen in Jan 2018 so sold $500k of my stocks and bought vwetx (long term investment bonds).
lets see what happens a year from now (dec 2018).

there will be an eventual correction but it's not going to happen in Jan 2018 considering the tax bill that the republicans will be passing

 

[JEDI]

there will be an eventual correction but it's not going to happen in Jan 2018 considering the tax bill that the republicans will be passing

WILL be passing?!

the tax bill effectively passed last weekend and the market reacted on Mon with a 3 digit gain.

now that the tax bill is priced in, I say correction in 1st Q 2018

 

[FelixDeCat]

WILL be passing?!

the tax bill effectively passed last weekend and the market reacted on Mon with a 3 digit gain.

now that the tax bill is priced in, I say correction in 1st Q 2018

The tax bill has been SIGNED!! The market is now looking for the next thing to fixate on.

Sure there are fat gains out there that need to be taken off the table, but nobody wants to sell (apparently). Then of course there is the annual "January effect" sell off the first week of January. I suspect even if there is selling, it will be bought back soon.

There technically is no big reason to sell right now. We keep setting stock market records almost every day.

 

[ImpulsE69]

So what is everyone's biggest regret of the year? Maybe something more specific than just not buying at the low and selling at the high... or "shoulda played bitcoin"

I think at this point, mine was not taking on more NVDA and not getting into ISRG at all. I used to play ISRG a lot when my previous employer didn't have a 60 day buy and hold policy. Once that came into play, I stopped paying attention to the stock.

NVDA was a purchase at the same time i bought AMD. We all know how that played out since June. Anyway, hindsight is pretty unhealthy when trading, but that doesn't mean i don't have it 20/20.

My biggest regret is that for as well as the market did, comparatively I did really poorly. Evreything I was in either stayed flat all year or was down and is just now recovering. Most of the companies that are 'favorites' this year are companies I absolutely hate and want no part of.

I made more money day trading because most days start strong and then just sell off to the end of the day. Every time things would start to go really well, Trump would tweet something, etc etc....and it would all tank again. It's almost like going long is pointless anymore except for a select few non dividend paying companies.

I too am considering selling most of my long positions in preparation for a correction...but I have no idea what to expect. The market did completely the opposite I thought it would this year.

 

[bookem dano]

Quick question... Come 2018... For my 401k contributions (have 2 of them, one for the wife)...

Which one does ATOT think is most likely to happen...
1) Max out contributions now, prices are as low as they will go for 2018
2) average out contributions so it equals out at the end of the year roughly
3) Minimize contributions to just the employer match amount... because the market is going to have a correction sometime through 2018.

Always put as much as you can afford into the 401k. What you do with it while in there is up to you. If you are concerned on the correction you can allocate your funds to a more stable option. You could do the math and have anything over the match go into the stable funds while keeping your other contributions. You should have an option to allocate current and or future allocations to funds you designate.

I max out my 401k and roth each year. I haven't decided what to put the roth money towards. My 401k doesn't give me any investment options. Luckily it seems to return about what I pick in my prior 401k.. I put $50 per paycheck into the HSA then do a transfer at the end of the year to max it out, that way it helps my taxes.

Personally, I'd do the minimum in 401k for match, fill the Roth/HSA, and then fill the 401k.