***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[KB]

Putting more money in today! Banks should be going up with rising interest rates, not down. People are throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Selling not done yet although a tiny bounce might happen tomorrow. Lots more downside risk as people try to protect savings

 

[dullard]

Selling not done yet

My crystal ball is blurry, but I think that I'll wait to get in until we reach a classical double bottom (a big drop, followed by a 10% or so gain, followed by a big drop again about a month later). We might not get a double bottom, but it just feels like it will happen this time. I'll wait it out probably until March to see what the longer term direction seems to be.

 

[Ns1]

daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamn -1000

time to put in more money tomorrow. LOL

 

[fleshconsumed]

Yep, two days in 2018 with 1000 point drops so far...

At this rate it'll be safer to keep your money in cryptos

 

[Blackjack200]

S&P 500 is down 10.2% from it's record high on Jan 26. Still up 12.5% YoY.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-markets-20180208-story.html

 

[Blackjack200]

At this rate it'll be safer to keep your money in cryptos

Only figuratively speaking since I haven't heard of any brokerage accounts getting hacked and securities stolen

 

[eng2d2]

call me smart but I liquidate today. See you guys on the down low.

 

[ponyo]

People have been asking for a correction for a long time. We might be finally getting one. They say be careful what you wish for.

Things I don't like:
1) Even with the drop, I don't feel the fear in the market. I sense lot of complacency and people anxious to buy the dip.
2) The sharp rebound off the low on Monday was too quick and set us up for more downside. The oversold condition was worked off that rally so we could see much further downside.
3) Big daily fluctuations are usually early signal big crash is coming.

Things I like:
1) Crypto and cannabis are trading dry. This risk asset group crashed first and led on the downside. Now while the rest of the market is crumbling, they're holding pretty steady.
2) Seasonality. It's not Sept/Oct so we might only see small correction rather than big crash.

I think it's too early to buy and hold. I like this kind of market. It's made for trading and more my style. With the increased volatility, I can trade more frequent and use smaller position sizes.

 

[FIVR]

i was up 40% YTD as of friday morning but at market close today I'm only up 12%

 

[Charmonium]

 

[Ns1]

I hope it keeps crashing so I can feast on dividend stocks.

 

[Kwatt]

I hope it keeps crashing so I can feast on dividend stocks.

I hear ya!

I turned on the tv to catch the news after dinner. Heard about the ~1000 point drop. So I checked and not one of my "Dividend Aristocrats" or "Dividend Champions" announced a dividend cut. So ho-hum...

If the dividend isn't cut the price can go anywhere.

.

 

[Ns1]

evidently we have the same investing strategy.

 

[ImpulsE69]

That's what I'm doing. *crosses fingers*

 

[FelixDeCat]

All depends on the jobs report today. We are due for a bounce, but I suspect another down day on Wall Street.

 

[ponyo]

All depends on the jobs report today. We are due for a bounce, but I suspect another down day on Wall Street.

Job report is only noise and something for the talking heads to talk about. Focus on maximum pain and the weekend.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Job report is only noise and something for the talking heads to talk about. Focus on maximum pain and the weekend.

Actually this what started the sell off last Friday - a substantially stronger than expected jobs report stoking fears of a sharper spike in rates that would slow down the economy.

 

[Charmonium]

If that fear is for real, then the fed must think that strong job growth is going to propagate quickly and cause greater demand for goods and services pretty quickly. I would have imagined it would have been a slower effect especially since the impression I get is that most of the job demand is in tech and health sectors which are pretty specialized with high entry barriers.

 

[Charmonium]

I thought this was interesting and was a pretty good rationale for the crash - much better than the jobs bullsh**.

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/big_change_in_bull-bear_spread/

Turns out the fed upped their asset buying to $20B/mo in January and they bought the whole lot at the end of the month. That must of hurt. Oh, yeah, it did.

 

[Blackjack200]

All depends on the jobs report today. We are due for a bounce, but I suspect another down day on Wall Street.

Actually this what started the sell off last Friday - a substantially stronger than expected jobs report stoking fears of a sharper spike in rates that would slow down the economy.

What are you talking about? There's one jobs report per month. There was no jobs report today.

 

[Charmonium]

Doesn't ADP put something out every week?

 

[FelixDeCat]

What are you talking about? There's one jobs report per month. There was no jobs report today.

Doesn't ADP put something out every week?

BLS Jobs Report due:

Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation

Reference Month Release Date Release Time

December 2017 Jan. 05, 2018 08:30 AM
January 2018 Feb. 02, 2018 08:30 AM
February 2018 Mar. 09, 2018 08:30 AM
March 2018 Apr. 06, 2018 08:30 AM
April 2018 May 04, 2018 08:30 AM
May 2018 Jun. 01, 2018 08:30 AM
June 2018 Jul. 06, 2018 08:30 AM
July 2018 Aug. 03, 2018 08:30 AM
August 2018 Sep. 07, 2018 08:30 AM
September 2018 Oct. 05, 2018 08:30 AM
October 2018 Nov. 02, 2018 08:30 AM
November 2018 Dec. 07, 2018 08:30 AM

The ADP report comes out one day before the BLS report.

I was thinking of jobless claims. Continued drops indicate strength in the economy which could indicate what the next BLS report will look like.

Here is the next one

https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/...ay=2018-02-15&offset=0&sf=country_code&st=asc


Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg US 8:30AM EST - - - 224.5 -

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think we are headed for a full on BEAR MARKET in 2018 all based on higher interest rates.

 

[Blackjack200]

BLS Jobs Report due:

I was thinking of jobless claims. Continued drops indicate strength in the economy which could indicate what the next BLS report will look like.

Here is the next one

https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/...ay=2018-02-15&offset=0&sf=country_code&st=asc


Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg US 8:30AM EST - - - 224.5 -

Mmmm, not exactly. New unemployment claims do not need to drop to indicate a strong labor market. In fact, anything under 300,000 is traditionally considered strong, 224.5 is insanely strong.

But that's the traditional wisdom, and I often wonder how much it applies now that we have so many contract workers that are not eligible for unemployment. Compounding that is the fact that most firms will let those workers go first, so not only do that not show up in new unemployment claims, but they actively mask what's going on in the labor market. I don't think the report moves the market too much, there's just too much volatility in it, although I think it's fair to say that if that number starts to spike, that's probably the first indication that our 10 year economic expansion is in some trouble.