I think we are headed for a full on BEAR MARKET in 2018 all based on higher interest rates.
Interest rates are still very, very low on a historical basis. I've heard some speculation that lower interest rates might be the norm for today's economy, and judging by historical rates isn't appropriate, but that's unproven.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Historically, employment is a lagging indicator. So much so that it's almost counter-cyclical. But that's a very good point about the so-called 'gig' economy. The next recession when it hits is going to hit hard and fast but we're not there yet.Mmmm, not exactly. New unemployment claims do not need to drop to indicate a strong labor market. In fact, anything under 300,000 is traditionally considered strong, 224.5 is insanely strong.
But that's the traditional wisdom, and I often wonder how much it applies now that we have so many contract workers that are not eligible for unemployment. Compounding that is the fact that most firms will let those workers go first, so not only do that not show up in new unemployment claims, but they actively mask what's going on in the labor market. I don't think the report moves the market too much, there's just too much volatility in it, although I think it's fair to say that if that number starts to spike, that's probably the first indication that our 10 year economic expansion is in some trouble.
No one is getting into big pharma?
Diabities and depression. are going to be two HUGE issues in the near future. Bad for the nation but good for stockholders. Hey, it's the truth. In 10 years many people are going to have type 2 diabities. 1/4 Americans. Especially young people. Many are going to be on diabities meds for life. And, as many more countries adopt the Western diet, many are going to come down with type 2.
Depression is going to increase as well. Especially with automation and the loss of jobs. A person on depression meds could be on them for many decades. Worldwide as well.
I'm just currently looking at trends. I don't like the fact that many people are going to suffer from diabities and depression. But, from a stockholders perspective my guess is this is what they want. Am I correct?
Do you guys have the same thoughts?
Diabities stocks: https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/11/27/3-top-diabetes-stocks-to-buy-now.aspx
I look at this like the big housing crash from 10 years ago.
The people with the money made out and bought the homes from the people who got evicted. That's just the way it works. It seems that the people with the money prey on the masses.
I think it's somewhat laughable that there's this hero worship of Bezos and Buffet and somehow they're just a particular brand of genius that can fix Healthcare. As if no one with brains has been trying. I would be thrilled to eat my words, thrilled, but I don't see it happening. This is just Healthcare outsiders thinking "Amazon is awesome! Amazon Healthcare? Awesomer!"Avoid big pharma in 2018 because:
Cant believe this but Trump is trying to save $ by reducing drug costs on Medicare.
maybe hell wont freeze over before Trump over turns rule that Medicare cant competitive pricing on drugs.
Amazon and Warren Buffet is trying to come out with a sensible way to reduce/reform health costs
I think it's somewhat laughable that there's this hero worship of Bezos and Buffet and somehow they're just a particular brand of genius that can fix Healthcare. As if no one with brains has been trying. I would be thrilled to eat my words, thrilled, but I don't see it happening. This is just Healthcare outsiders thinking "Amazon is awesome! Amazon Healthcare? Awesomer!"
Exactly. Which they certainly may do, and I hope they do it well.. Yet, this is how HMOs started and here we are.It looks like they are just saving costs for their own companies...
Could you please elaborate on this point? Who, with power not just brains, has actually been trying to reduce costs in the health care system?As if no one with brains has been trying. I would be thrilled to eat my words, thrilled, but I don't see it happening.
Could you please elaborate on this point? Who, with power not just brains, has actually been trying to reduce costs in the health care system?
Americans don't visit the doctor often enough, turning minor issues into major expensive problems. For example, in Japan the average person visits the doctor 13.1 times per year vs 4.1 visits/year in the US. This is a structural issue since people on hourly work often can't afford to take time off of work and those on salaries find it hard to get the time off. But also, a cost issue. Many Americans can't afford to pay the deductibles and/or copays. And finally it is a trust issue: with doctors spending maybe 5 minutes max with many patients, the patients just don't feel that their concerns and needs are being addressed.
All of those problems could be solved by having more medical schools. More doctors would mean more time with each patient (building trust), less cost per doctor visit (less barrier to see a doctor), and more flexible hours to see a doctor (so you don't have to go during work hours). Who, with brains and power is actually proposing new medical schools? And equally importantly, removing the useless but very expensive requirement for a bachelor's degree to get into medical schools.
Also, the same exact work in the US is far more expensive than the rest of the world. A bypass surgery in the US costs $73k but only $14k in the United Kingdom. Results are the same, but one costs 5x more. We need more doctors and more hospitals to drive down the costs. Who is proposing this? We have similar issues with drug costs that are sky high compared to the rest of the world. Who is honestly changing the patent system, pharmaceutical company profit incentives, and negotiation powers to allow profitable development of new drugs that don't cost $100k/year or more?
All I see is people actually discussing are distractions. Distractions such as of insurance changes or minor cross-border agreements or items with minimal costs compared to the grand scale of the healthcare system (such as tort reform).
Same here but I expect the market to yo-yo for some time to come. Right now I'm playing the Nvidia buy/sell game. When it is up I sell, when it falls again I buy. I made $6K in the past 8 trading days just on Nvidia. I sold on Friday so at some point today I will buy again. Of course I'm doing this in my 401K so I don't have to pay short term capital gains.Very happy today so far.
Between Friday and today I've gained back just about half of pre-correction.
CPI came in higher than anticipated.
Evidently, that's coupled with a fall in retail sales... should make for an eventful day...