***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[woodman1999]

would now be a good time to mention that i am long amd and intel? just wondering how fivr will handle that...

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm thinking hype of crypto-mining might be a bump in the road for AMD... what are your thoughts? Will Ryzen be able to keep it for long-term gains?

 

[woodman1999]

If you're asking me that, I think crypto is certainly a short term boost, but it seems as though Ryzen can hold it's own in this day and age and should be able to for the foreseable future.

Honestly, my reasoning behind holding both is because it's only these two in the server/desktop CPU market. AMD can't go away for fear of giving INTC a monopoly. If the stock gets low enough, maybe some PE shop goes for buyout and I should make money there too. And while FIVR may or may not be right about INTC's issues, they are "to big to fail". I know it can be abnormal to hold both sides of a product war and not pick a winner, but in this case, I just can't see an actual loser.

Quick Edit: I have not done piles of research to come to hold these positions. Both are longer term plays (I bought INTC in 2014 and AMD in 2016) and as of now I am still comfortable with them in the longhaul.

 

[jpiniero]

The problem with Intel is that their main business is in decline (PCs) and they've covered that up by cutting costs for the time being (layoffs, end of the Intel Inside program, etc) and by jacking up prices for both PC processors and servers. With AMD being competitive now you have to figure they will have to at least cut prices back, which will hurt margins. You might not feel it now but it is coming.

And that's just the beginning, considering how badly things are going with 10 nm. There was a time where I thought that they were holding back 10 nm because the margins were better at 14... but it's obvious that there are serious problems that might not be completely fixable without EUV.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

CMG has 1000 empty stores that nobody wants to eat at because they don't want hepatitis.

Quoting just to go neener neener

You forget America is an outrage culture. They get outraged for a short duration... then proceed to continue as normal.

 

[Mermaidman]

would now be a good time to mention that i am long amd and intel?

INTC killing it. Congrats.

 

[woodman1999]

Gracias. It'll probably tumble again in a week so FIVR can say the sky is falling, but i'll take the phantom gains after this week.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This is one of those violent updrafts. Tomorrow will be even more violent to the upside.

....but where will it be on Monday?

 

[FIVR]

Quoting just to go neener neener

You forget America is an outrage culture. They get outraged for a short duration... then proceed to continue as normal.

Damn. I really got CMG wrong. Those are biblical returns for holding a stock.


What were your other ideas again? lol

 

[FIVR]

INTC killing it. Congrats.

Decline in datacenter growth. Loss in GM. No 10nm products to speak of and only vague promises about "products" for the future.


yeah, they killed it. Lol


Totally going to average down on my puts if it holds any of the gains it made AH

 

[FIVR]

Tbh I was pretty stupid to hate on CMG considering I still eat there once a week. It's good, cheap, healthy food and I realize it's statistically unlikely for me to get e-coli. That said, they definitely seem less crowded than they were at one point in time.

 

[FIVR]

would now be a good time to mention that i am long amd and intel? just wondering how fivr will handle that...

I get your strategy and I admit it probably made you a lot of money. I will say that I don't think in this market it is a great investment. In fact, I think most people with knowledge of technicals would say it is due for a pullback even if they were bullish.

This earnings report is a mixed bag. Hidden inside that bag of tasty investor treats are a bunch of cat turds like "loss of gross margin" and "slowing datacenter growth". Don't ignore that ****

 

[woodman1999]

I get the argument on technicals, but I just am not sure it applies here as much. Even with INTC having some "cat turds" in their earnings, the fact again remains that it's really just them and AMD. At this point, the barrier to entry in the desktop/server CPU market is so incredibly absurd (similar to ISRG in the robotic surgery market) I just can't see these two crumbling in the long run.

And if there is a reversion to the mean for INTC, I see that more as a buying opportunity than anything else. If it dumps back down to at or below my cost basis, something has gone horribly wrong globally...

 

[dullard]

the fact again remains that it's really just them and AMD. At this point, the barrier to entry in the desktop/server CPU market is so incredibly absurd (similar to ISRG in the robotic surgery market) I just can't see these two crumbling in the long run.

Two words: Apple and China. At the moment, we have a duopoly with AMD and Intel. But either Apple or China can break that. They have the funds and the willpower to overcome that barrier to entry. So do Qualcomm and ARM but their focus is different.

China is my biggest worry for AMD and Intel. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201801/15/WS5a5c19f0a3102c394518f3f3.html Going from a duopoly to a more competitive environment could destroy much of the profit margins for both AMD and Intel. China's economic goals are to become the world leader in technology. CPUs are one of their paths there. China has pledged to invest $150 billion into the semiconductor industry. https://www.forbes.com/sites/inside...-soon-be-the-worlds-tech-leader/#2e0a8116fb40

AMD has good products, but terrible pricing (for stock holders). They have lots to gain but just as much to lose if China comes in as the low price option. Where does AMD fit in the picture if customers no longer see AMD as the low-priced underdog when China is now the low priced underdog? So, AMD stock is a very big gamble for me. AMD stock could do quite well if AMD can place themselves as a premium brand with premium prices. Or AMD could crash and burn if it continues to compete on price while China always can undercut them on price.

I admit that I was wrong to say to avoid Intel 6 months ago. Intel has been moving away from their core CPU business and is diversifying into many other areas (cloud, communications, internet of things, artificial intelligence, programmable solutions, non-volatile memory, FPGA, etc). Those non-CPU items are doing quite well for Intel (these subgroups combined are larger than all of AMD) and likely will stay doing quite well for the forseeable future.

 

[dasherHampton]

I guess we'll have to see what the hedge fund boys are wiling to pony up for MU calls on Monday.

Hopefully they'll open up their wallets again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I guess we'll have to see what the hedge fund boys are wiling to pony up for MU calls on Monday.

Hopefully they'll open up their wallets again.

I like MU but I don't think it's time be getting long anything until the Fed stops raising rates. That and Trumps tweets are on the markets neck until then.

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm not thinking long.

The 53 calls went for $9500 two weeks ago and $12200 last week. I just want that pattern to continue.

 

[FIVR]

Who made money shorting INTC this morning? I closed half my positions when it went down 1% after being up 5% at open. Made 26% on my options.



Probably a good time for leap puts. I see INTC trading down to 45 over the next couple months. There is really no reason it was ever above 45 anyway.

 

[FIVR]

I get the argument on technicals, but I just am not sure it applies here as much. Even with INTC having some "cat turds" in their earnings, the fact again remains that it's really just them and AMD. At this point, the barrier to entry in the desktop/server CPU market is so incredibly absurd (similar to ISRG in the robotic surgery market) I just can't see these two crumbling in the long run.

And if there is a reversion to the mean for INTC, I see that more as a buying opportunity than anything else. If it dumps back down to at or below my cost basis, something has gone horribly wrong globally...

Well, you can't say i didn't warn you. I basically told what would happen and that's exactly what happened.


Now I'm telling you it will trade down to 45 over the next few months. Would you prefer to ignore me and attain 15% losses or will you sell? My guess is you ignore me again and lose money again.

 

[woodman1999]

Apple is Apple. Do you actually see them developing their own X86 processor? I would be pretty surprised if they went that route, but I guess it's certainly possible.

As for China, I have absolutely ZERO clue on how long it takes to put something into mass production so maybe I am off in assuming we'd see something from them by now. But with a new CPU from China, wouldn't we still need massive adaptation for sockets by mainstream motherboard manufacturers before seeing anything of any serious impact from this? I feel like that kind of thing takes time...

As for you FIVR, you're right, it did end up going back down. Now I am only up about 71% in INTC. And it may clip back to 45, at which point I may just buy more. I am happy for you that you're making money hand over fist trading options, but that's not my thing.

 

[FIVR]

You guys holding through AAPL earnings? I've got a few hundred shares and some 2020 185 leap calls. I think they blow it out again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm not thinking long.

The 53 calls went for $9500 two weeks ago and $12200 last week. I just want that pattern to continue.

You're not thinking long but talking about long calls? Hmmmm okay.

Puts are what you need to be thinking about.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You guys holding through AAPL earnings? I've got a few hundred shares and some 2020 185 leap calls. I think they blow it out again.

Sell. ....now.

 

[dasherHampton]

You're not thinking long but talking about long calls? Hmmmm okay.

Puts are what you need to be thinking about.

You think weekly calls are long? I've never considered that "long".

 

[dasherHampton]

WDC crushes it and gets slammed.

I have my bounce stock for Monday. lol