***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

You're a true believer of decades of propagandized FUD. You'll never except the real benefits of compounds that your preacher and chosen political idiots have long convinced you are "the Devil's weed."

What's the point in trying to convince you of tested, observed, and real benefits to things that your faith tells you otherwise?

LoL you're a moron. Nobody told me anything. I know from first hand experience not only does weed make people stupid, confused and lazy its also a gateway drug. Youre free to toke all you want, its just not for me. And those who are after any sort of TRUE medicinal benefit besides relaxation and seeking an altered mental state are also welcome to use it. But those who view it as simply as a recreational drug are the reason why I still oppose complete legalization.

CBD does hold medicinal promise as a pain reliever and should be exploited.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Tell us all you know. Your stock picks in this space and why. No, really.

Ok. For this quarter...

Aphria, because it's got the best financials right now of the larger companies (>$1B) and has the lowest cost per gram in production of them. It's focused on slow healthy growth. Relative to the big guys, its undervalued. Canopy, the #1 player, is well established, so betting on them could be like betting on Bitcoin 3-4 years ago. They're the first mover of this industry and have a large advantage because of it. For the smaller guys I've got Kush Bottles because they're the packaging play, and happen to be US based as well. Then my wildcard picks just from reading around, and should at least ride up with the rest of the sector and MPX and CannaRoyalty. The latter is actually breaking out to new ATHs, and the former is close, so you could say they're technical plays more than anything. My one dud of a call right now Sunniva. I'm hoping that turns one around soon, as new lows for the year may have me exiting. Though I got in at $6.8 so I'm not much in the red on that one.

If I lived in Canada, I'll also consider just buying lots of HMMJ ETF, as opposed to the individual companies. 40% of their portfolio is in the larger companies. They have something like a 0.75% maintenance fee, but do offer a 5% dividend yield.

All of this could be dud. It's still early and it's still heavily speculative. But at the same time, it almost seems too obvious. You always see the bubbles in hindsight, and wish you were there. But if you were there, you'd have to be buying in the speculative phase anyway.

This one almost doesn't feel speculative. New York is also now on the verge of legalizing. Once that goes through, >25% of the population in the US will have easy access. We will be comfortably past the "10% tipping point" (https://news.rpi.edu/luwakkey/2902) for fully legalized and regulated use. Feel free to wait until then, but I'm sure you know that once it's there, you're looking at 10% in a good year just like every other sector now.

In 2-3 years, I'd far more regret not being involved knowing what I know right now and missing out, then of losing money on this whole play.

 

[dasherHampton]

And now MU is going buy back 10 billion in shares.

What a ^&*)ing disaster for me. It would cost me way more to buy back those calls than what I got for them.

 

[jpiniero]

Current Fed Rate odds have a hike next time at 100%. Don't think I've seen that before, especially this far out.

 

[JEDI]

Current Fed Rate odds have a hike next time at 100%. Don't think I've seen that before, especially this far out.

there goes my long term corporate bonds

 

[FelixDeCat]

there goes my long term corporate bonds

As if you did not know rates would go up when the Fed itself has said there will be two more rate hikes this year? It wasnt a matter of if but how much. I think two .25 for a total of .50 by 12/31/18.

 

[woodman1999]

TRXC's robot got approved by the FDA for additional procedures... up 14% on this blech day...

 

[dasherHampton]

I think if BoA somehow finds its way under 29 I've going to dive in.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Why is Italy's governmental crisis affecting the stock market?

 

[dasherHampton]

I've been following it vaguely. I think the worry is that if Italy leaves the Euro zone it will be disruptive.

 

[JEDI]

I've been following it vaguely. I think the worry is that if Italy leaves the Euro zone it will be disruptive.

Italy leaving the EC would be a god send.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So the DOW is down 400 but MU hits a 52 week high.


lol

 

[dasherHampton]

Don't rub it in lol

 

[JEDI]

So the DOW is down 400 but MU hits a 52 week high.

lol

hopefully this will be the start of the much anticipated Trump stock market meltdown.
Dow 19.9k, PLEASE?

I got lots of $$$ laying around waiting to buy

 

[FelixDeCat]

Don't rub it in lol

Ok so now Morgan slaps it with a downgrade. Maybe those calls will expire worthless after all.

 

[ctbaars]

Might buy PM and PG for my IRA.

 

[dasherHampton]

Ok so now Morgan slaps it with a downgrade. Maybe those calls will expire worthless after all.

Maybe, but in a way the damage is already done. I going to end up losing a ton of money no matter what (unless it drops under 55 before 10/19 and immediately pops after that). It almost hit 65 ffs.

I keep on telling myself "it's ok, your basis is under 52, you made almost $30,000 selling the calls, your take will be decent if they're exercised - don't sweat it" but it still bothers me quite a bit, and it will for a while.

Why did I suddenly decide to go long on a potential firecracker like MU? I can't quite explain it.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

I should have just put all my money into Amazon vs all of the other hot name stocks. In the end Amazon is up 10% for me in the past 3-4 months.

 

[ponyo]

I should have just put all my money into Amazon vs all of the other hot name stocks. In the end Amazon is up 10% for me in the past 3-4 months.

Don't sweat it. If you trade long enough, you'll have plenty of winners and losers. You'll always feel like you should've bet the house on the winners and grateful you didn't put much in losers. The key to staying in this game long term is to stay disciplined.

 

[KB]

I should have just put all my money into Amazon vs all of the other hot name stocks. In the end Amazon is up 10% for me in the past 3-4 months.

In the short run this works, just like shorting the VIX did for the last 3 years. But one day and no ones knows when, but Amazon will post low single digit growth for the quarter and the stock will plummet. You don't want to be 100% in Amazon when this happens. Single digit growth means they will be near peak growth and close to peak earnings. At this point the stock is no longer a growth stock but will trade on value. I suspect on value the stock is currently worth $50 - $100, but as long as it keeps up growth, it can keep up the stock price.

 

[KB]

Might buy PM and PG for my IRA.

I recently added Altria (MO). It also got beatup like PM because of falling cigarette volumes and concerns over banning menthol. I picked it over PM because it had a similar yield, but lower payout ratio, lower debt ratio and it had diversified in wine. Take a look at both.

 

[dasherHampton]

I could never buy a cig stock. Just feels wrong.

 

[woodman1999]

T
R
X
C

 

[FIVR]

My AMD calls finally hit 100%. But they are out to 2020 so I will just hold.


Micron seems like a decent short right now. It's way overbought.

Intel is pissing me off still. Oh well, you can't win every time. AMD more than makes up for whatever I might lose on my intel short.

 

[FIVR]

I could never buy a cig stock. Just feels wrong.

It's not only wrong, it's financially stupid. People aren't going to start smoking cigarettes again. Their business is basically selling to war torn countries in the Middle east and africa. Once those countries develop they will also stop smoking. It's basically like investing in coal-fired boilers.