As for the this private deal, you either believe Elon or you don't. If you think Elon is lying, you would be crazy to hold this stock since Elon will go to jail. If Elon is telling the truth and Tesla goes private, you'll get close to 20% return by holding. Basically the shorts are betting Elon went all crazy and risked going to jail and completely ruining his reputation so he could juice the stock temporary for a day or two. For what? It's not like he's going to sell his shares.
Tesla's board has not received a detailed financing plan from him and is seeking more information, Reuters reported on Thursday.
The board will make a decision on whether to hire advisers and launch a formal review of Musk's take-private proposal in the coming days, based on how much detail on the financing plan it receives from Musk, a third source said.
This is how Elon is going to fund the Tesla private deal. He's going to sell official short shorts Tesla merchandise.
Imagine if Wall St. was involved. There would've been leaks everywhere and all the rich assholes would've ran in front of the news and all the asshole short sellers like Chanos, Einhorn, and others would've got the insider news and covered before you and I read the tweet. This is why everyone is mad at Musk. They couldn't make illegal easy money on this news like they do for every other deals. Which is why I love Elon and love his tweet move and the lack of leak.
Sigh. So many lemmings....
The total buyout price will be nothing close to $84 billion. It will likely require less than $30 billion when it's all said and done.
Everyone is in the dark. I don't know anything but neither does anyone else. I'm just trying to correct some of the FUD and irrational hate in regards to Musk and Tesla.^Dude, you're starting to sound like whatisface leading up to the big "I absolutely know what is going to happen with RAMBUS" and those posts, just before the thing....ouch.
....and I think he had way, way, way more tied into that group.
Chill.
Of course Wall Street is involved. But this is not a traditional deal and Musk and Tesla never went about conducting the business and this potential deal the traditional way. Which is why they're upset. I don't know of any deal where small retail investors like myself were told we might have an option to follow and invest in the private shares. That's unprecedented and unorthodox. But Musk didn't get to where he is today by following the traditional rules. Think about the odds Tesla and Space X overcame when everyone including myself said was impossible. Musk makes impossible, possible. At least he tries his very best.You're mistaken. Wall Street IS involved. That is why it's a big deal. There are rules to follow, and while I think shorting being a thing is counterproductive and should be abolished, it doesn't change the fact that you don't do what he did. Basically you are so in love with him that you fail to see the significance of what transpired. In fact, unless he produces that 'funding', the SEC letting it go with nothing and not being indicted over it would actually be that 'illegal' part you are talking about. Granted, I think this will just 'go away' because all anyone on that end cares about are the rich assholes (so I do agree there).
Your math is flawed. Musk owns way more than 2 million shares of Tesla. He owns 20% of the company. Musk along with the 5 biggest institutional holders own almost 54% of the company shares. And we got the news before Musk's now famous tweet about going private that Saudis bought almost 5% on the open market with the help of JP Morgan Chase. So that's 59% of the shares. Small retail like myself make up and hold about 12% of the shares. So if you add that to the mix, it's now 71% of the shares. Saudis just bought their 5% so they're not going to sell. And if Musk can convince the top 5 shareholders along with most of the retail to follow him to private and hold private shares, that's only 30% of the remaining float Musk has to buy out. $70 billion x 30% = $21 billion. Who knows what the final percentage and numbers end up being. But one thing I'm certain. It won't require anything near $80 billion to get this deal done.Ponyo, most of the time I agree with you, but to call others "shorts and lemmings" is beneath you. I am neither a short nor a lemming. I dont care what happens to TSLA and am not motivated to see it fail or succeed. But I do like the story of TSLA and the man who created it.
Lets do some math, shall we?
Based on current market cap and share price, TSLA stock float x $355 per share is $59 BILLION
But wait, theres more. Here is where $80+ BILLION comes into play:
I made the quick Excel spreadsheet just using basic math skills and functions. Very simple to see. You have to pay off public share holders AND you have to buy off debt holders. Cost? $83.79 BILLION.
And if you have to keep using that $2.4 billion in cash on hand, because TSLA has always been a non-profit organization.
I now put the odds at 50/50. Before explanation this morning by Musk, I felt the odds were 90/10 going private. I put the risk/reward at similar odds with +-$70 either direction depending on if this private deal passes or not. Based on the new odds and risk/reward scenario, I would avoid Tesla and wouldn't go long or short but instead just watch from the sideline. The payoff isn't worth the new odds.TSLA will not be able to go private. It can't. Its been a non profit organization (up to now) with a cumulative loss since 2008 of over $2,000,000,000, of which $700,000,000 was just THE LAST QUARTER.
Just look at Amazon. They were not in the business of making profit for most of their existence up until no too long ago. Up until 2012-2013, shorting Amazon was fashionable as they made no profit but continued to grow revenues in things like cloud services. Then the stock took off from $350 to $1925 today.
Would taking Amazon private at the wrong time been helpful to the company? No. And now its on the verge of being Americas next trillion dollar company.
TSLA should remain public to access public markets and fund growth (losses). If Musk succeeds taking the company private by 10/31/2018, I'll eat my hat!
I now put the odds at 50/50. Before explanation this morning by Musk, I felt the odds were 90/10 going private. I put the risk/reward at similar odds with +-$70 either direction depending on if this private deal passes or not. Based on the new odds and risk/reward scenario, I would avoid Tesla and wouldn't go long or short but instead just watch from the sideline. The payoff isn't worth the new odds.
The capital market today is different from years past. In the old days, you had to go public to access the capital market. But that's no longer the case. The venture capital and the private equity market are flush with record levels of cash. The world cash and sovereign funds are now all chasing the next big thing and instead of waiting for the public market, they all want to invest at the VC level. So in the past, companies rushed to become public so they could access the vast public money. Now, unicorn companies can access the private funding and get just as good rates if not better by remaining private. Look at companies like Uber and AirBnB. Uber is losing billions and is still able to raise tons of easy money while remaining private. It's different world now in the capital market. Unicorn companies can afford to stay private for lot longer and still get funding. This wouldn't have flied in the years past.
As for Tesla continuing to post losses, that's going to change starting this upcoming quarter. If you take Elon at his word, Tesla should be profitable from now on. And based on projected Model 3 sales and margin numbers, he should be correct. As for your 10/31/18 private deadline or you eat your hat, that's about the safest and the weakest prediction you can make. There's virtually no chance any deal can close that fast even if it's approved and with funding. This thing is going to drag on for about a year even if Musk gets his funding. This is far from over and there will be plenty of twists and turns.
Cepak, Tesla has big plans for the SUV and pickup market. Just like they have big plans for the Semi and the new Roadster. Please give Musk and Tesla more credit and stop thinking they're idiots and research some into Tesla plans. I don't know about GM but Ford is dead man walking. Tesla is going to eat Ford's lunch in the truck and SUV market just like what's going to happen to BMW and most of the Germans in the sedan market. The only automaker I think might do ok in the future might be Volkswagon because their recent big push into EV. The irony is the repercussions from Dieselgate is what's probably going to save Volkswagon. The other ICE automakers like Ford are living on borrowed time.67% (11.5 million) of the 17.25 million vehicles sold in the US in 2017 were pickups and SUVs. US Auto sales 2017
If you look at US auto sales through March of 2018, 78% of the vehicles for GM and Ford, 89% for Chrysler, and 59% for Toyota sold were Light Trucks.
US Auto sales March 2018
Trucks and SUVs have HUGE markups and this is where the auto industry in the US makes all of its profits. Have you seen the sticker prices on a new pickup lately? It is almost entry level Corvette pricing.
It is my opinion that Tesla made a mistake by going with an expensive entry level model 3. I know it has a base price of $35K, but there haven't been any $35K models actually shipped. I know Tesla has the Model X crossover with a starting price of $79K, but I just don't see how they are going to sustain themselves without a cutting edge light pickup.
Cepak, Tesla has big plans for the SUV and pickup market. Just like they have big plans for the Semi and the new Roadster. Please give Musk and Tesla more credit and stop thinking they're idiots and research some into Tesla plans. I don't know about GM but Ford is dead man walking. Tesla is going to eat Ford's lunch in the truck and SUV market just like what's going to happen to BMW and most of the Germans in the sedan market. The only automaker I think might do ok in the future might be Volkswagon because their recent big push into EV. The irony is the repercussions from Dieselgate is what's probably going to save Volkswagon. The other ICE automakers like Ford are living on borrowed time.
Yet Tesla defeated all those odds and is still here. If you can't see EV is the future and Tesla is going to be big part of it, then you can't see the demise of Ford, Chrysler, and other ICE automakers. As they say, you can lead horse to the water, but you can't make it drink.Big plans. Preston Tucker had big plans as well. Getting into the auto industry is tough. Staying in the auto industry is even tougher.
List of defunct automobile manufacturers of the United States
I never said that I didn't see EV as the future, I'm just not so sure I'm a Tesla fanboy. For that matter, other than classic automobiles, I'm not any auto manufacturer's fanboy. In my opinion, Musk comes across as a snake oil salesman. Too many distractions to divert attention away from Tesla's problems. It is too short of a time period for anyone to say "Yet Tesla defeated all those odds and is still here."Yet Tesla defeated all those odds and is still here. If you can't see EV is the future and Tesla is going to be big part of it, then you can't see the demise of Ford, Chrysler, and other ICE automakers. As they say, you can lead horse to the water, but you can't make it drink.
Tesla is EV. You're saying you agree EV is the future yet think Tesla will fail and have no part in the EV future. And I'm sure the old ICE automakers will just turn on a switch and convert everything to EV and destroy Tesla. Just like Barnes and Noble turned on the switch and destroyed Amazon. And Blockbuster turned on the switch and destroyed Netflix.I never said that I didn't see EV as the future, I'm just not so sure I'm a Tesla fanboy. For that matter, other than classic automobiles, I'm not any auto manufacturer's fanboy. In my opinion, Musk comes across as a snake oil salesman. Too many distractions to divert attention away from Tesla's problems. It is too short of a time period for anyone to say "Yet Tesla defeated all those odds and is still here."
I hope the best for Tesla, but I will stay firmly planted on the sidelines, not buying or shorting any of its stock, and just watch.
- Packard (1899–1958)
- Duesenberg (1920–1937)
- Stanley Steamer (1897–1927)
- DeSoto (1928–1961)
- Hudson (1909–1957)
When the automobile buying public demands more EVs, production of EVs by other manufacturers will increase. It is called supply and demand, and right now there isn't a great demand for EVs (maybe in California there is). This is why I pointed out light truck sales in previous posts where sales are greater than 75% of ALL vehicles sold. And your analogy is incorrect as far as "turning on a switch and convert everything to EV." All of the major auto manufacturers make and sell EV's or Hybrids. Right now, this isn't where the money is. It is more profitable to manufacture light trucks. In the short term, not every vehicle made even remotely needs to be an EV. If it makes economical sense, then the industry will adopt, otherwise it will adapt.Tesla is EV. You're saying you agree EV is the future yet think Tesla will fail and have no part in the EV future. And I'm sure the old ICE automakers will just turn on a switch and convert everything to EV and destroy Tesla. Just like Barnes and Noble turned on the switch and destroyed Amazon. And Blockbuster turned on the switch and destroyed Netflix.
I don't care if you or anyone else buy or short Tesla. It's your money. But I'm done here. cya.
I’m not going to waste my time educating you on EV. What’s the point? You will believe what you want to believe no matter how wrong. But I will say this. You’re wrong as far as demand and supply. Even now the demand is far greater than supply. Not just for Tesla but pretty much for everyone. It’s not a demand problem. It’s supply problem. And once you start looking at why that is so, you’ll discover and connect the dot it’s because of the batteries. And then you investigate why it’s battery problem, you might start to understand why many feel Tesla will dominate and the only automaker with a chance to compete with Tesla is VW. You need to open your eyes and stop looking Tesla as car manufacturer and look at their battery and energy. That’s the key to Tesla. There’s a reason why Tesla mortgaged everything to build these Gigafactories and plan to build ten total.When the automobile buying public demands more EVs, production of EVs by other manufacturers will increase. It is called supply and demand, and right now there isn't a great demand for EVs (maybe in California there is). This is why I pointed out light truck sales in previous posts where sales are greater than 75% of ALL vehicles sold. And your analogy is incorrect as far as "turning on a switch and convert everything to EV." All of the major auto manufacturers make and sell EV's or Hybrids. Right now, this isn't where the money is. It is more profitable to manufacture light trucks. In the short term, not every vehicle made even remotely needs to be an EV. If it makes economical sense, then the industry will adopt, otherwise it will adapt.
As a consumer, if I were looking for an economical vehicle, an EV would not be my first choice. It makes more sense money-wise to buy a $15K Hyundai with a highway mpg of 38 than it ever would to buy a $35K Tesla. Gasoline would have to be close to $8 a gallon, and break-even would still be at near the 100,000 mile mark if you include 11 cents per kilowatt hour for the Tesla. And this still doesn't show the whole picture because if gasoline was $8 a gallon, electricity would be much higher than 11 cents per kilowatt hour, making the break even point more like 120,000 miles of driving.
But what we are really looking at is Tesla is a luxury brand like Apple. For it to succeed, it will need to maintain that cult like following. Apple has done a fairly good job of keeping its fans loyal. It has stumbled at times, especially with the macbook pros. Will Tesla be able to do the same as Apple? This is a question no one can answer.
EV Sales
I’m not going to waste my time educating you on EV. What’s the point? You will believe what you want to believe no matter how wrong. But I will say this. You’re wrong as far as demand and supply. Even now the demand is far greater than supply. Not just for Tesla but pretty much for everyone. It’s not a demand problem. It’s supply problem. And once you start looking at why that is so, you’ll discover and connect the dot it’s because of the batteries. And then you investigate why it’s battery problem, you might start to understand why many feel Tesla will dominate and the only automaker with a chance to compete with Tesla is VW. You need to open your eyes and stop looking Tesla as car manufacturer and look at their battery and energy. That’s the key to Tesla. There’s a reason why Tesla mortgaged everything to build these Gigafactories and plan to build ten total.