***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

Even banks, which benefit from rate increases sold off. Maybe a 10% correction but it would be hard to keep the market down when wages and earnings are growing.

at the expense of National Debt

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looks like my market prediction was way off. Hopefully it goes back up on Monday.

 

[Zeze]

hahaah stock market? suckers.

Come to bitcoin.

 

[dasherHampton]

I got put 20,000 shares of Micron, mostly on margin.

Should be able to sell calls to cover the margin interest until it rebounds.

 

[Ken g6]

Well I'm buying the dip on Monday. I just hope it doesn't rebound too soon.

 

[Charmonium]

I think this is a typical overreaction. Things have been too good for too long and everybody has been suspicious of this market for quite a while now. Virtually any solid news that the party might be ending was going to spook the market.

I seriously doubt that you're going to see interest rates or inflation spike soon. The fed might accelerate it's asset buying and might raise the fed funds rate a bit faster, but they're not going to clamp down hard w/o a damn good reason. Lending is still increasing so new money is still being generated but I don't think we'll see any significant inflation for a while yet. That's based largely on what people expect to happen and right now no one is worried about inflation except the market and maybe the fed.

 

[TheVrolok]

I wish I had the money to buy. Unfortunately/fortunately, closing on a house!

 

[KB]

hahaah stock market? suckers.

Come to bitcoin.

I can barely handle 5% weekly moves in the market. The 20% daily moves in bitcoin are way too much for me to handle.

 

[Engineer]

I can barely handle 5% weekly moves in the market.

Watching my 401k become a 201k and nearly a 101k between 2007-2009 causes that (at least for me).

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

the end is near! Stocks will crash on Monday! SELL SELL SELL!

No but srsly, this seems like a typical dip as far as I can tell right now. No where near the 10% requirement to be deemed a "correction". My hand is getting awfully close to the buy button though for maxing out my IRAs for 2017/2018 though since this dip will probably be the lowest we will see until April deadline... we will see monday if it loses significantly more enough for me to buy.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

No skin off my back. I don't usually time the market, but I happened to put a bunch in right around Christmas,
so I still kept a fair amount of the gains since then.

 

[JEDI]

I seriously doubt that you're going to see interest rates or inflation spike soon.

I hope so.
I need my bonds to go up b4 I sell them and buy stocks after the correction

 

[dasherHampton]

The closer Monday gets the more nervous I become.

I'm not worried about Micron, its a good stock. But if it dives badly I might be subjected to a margin call. That's not great.

Why couldn't the selloff have waited one more day.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The closer Monday gets the more nervous I become.

I'm not worried about Micron, its a good stock. But if it dives badly I might be subjected to a margin call. That's not great.

Why couldn't the selloff have waited one more day.

Everyone knew that the interest rate game was in play starting two weeks ago when the market dropped and recovered four times, just last week on "rising bond yields on the 10 year, approaching 3%". Now the game will be good economic news will be perceived as expected and great economic news on GDP, jobs, etc will be seen as "bad news" because the fear of inflation and rapidly rising rates which would hit the breaks on the economy and bring down stock prices later this year.

For now Friday will be seen as an overreaction and I think we recover a tad. If you are on margin.....SELL the margined half of your position into market recovery and keep the rest (if you think MICRON keeps going up long term otherwise dump it all and get defensive). With all the volatility you dont want to be worrying about margin calls if the market decides to fall 10% in February!

 

[dasherHampton]

You're right. I got fat and lazy. I missed it.

I thought Micron at 41 was the safest put I've done in the last year.

 

[brianmanahan]

hahaah stock market? suckers.

Come to bitcoin.

where instead of a percentage of an actual company, you can own a percentage of nothing

 

[jpiniero]

Everyone knew that the interest rate game was in play starting two weeks ago when the market dropped and recovered four times, just last week on "rising bond yields on the 10 year, approaching 3%". Now the game will be good economic news will be perceived as expected and great economic news on GDP, jobs, etc will be seen as "bad news" because the fear of inflation and rapidly rising rates which would hit the breaks on the economy and bring down stock prices later this year.

Given how overpriced stocks are these days it's only reasonable to assume that once rates get to a certain point there'll be a selloff/correction to finally get it back to reasonable PE ratios.

 

[Charmonium]

I hope so.
I need my bonds to go up b4 I sell them and buy stocks after the correction

I wouldn't count on bonds appreciating in this environment unless you're talking junk bonds. Those tend to move more in sync with equity prices since they're a bet on the solvency of the issuer and companies tend to do better in a good economy. But for investment grade paper, you're probably better off selling now. You might be able to catch a transient price bump but that's definitely not the direction we're going in.

 

[Zeze]

But some vechain (VEN)

 

[Engineer]

Futures have DOW down about 200 right now. This thing might test 25,000. Depends on how it goes from there. Also approaching the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures have DOW down about 200 right now. This thing might test 25,000. Depends on how it goes from there. Also approaching the 50 day and 200 day moving averages.

Ruh roh!

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm seeling off at open tomorrow.

I don't know why I was even sweating it. MU is at 40.82 right now, so I'll take a little hit but I'll still end up with a couple hundred bucks factoring in the options I sold. Enough for a nice steak dinner.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ill just put this right here....

The Super Bowl Indicator is a superstition that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in the '70s when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).

Eagles are NFC!

 

[Engineer]

Ill just put this right here....



Eagles are NFC!

You know, what's really funny is that the market is based on emotions and feelings. If enough people believe something, like this for example, it could happen. Although with so much automated trading today (non emotion), things could go up or down in a heartbeat for no real apparent reason.

Wouldn't surprise me to see a giant leg down in the morning and close positive in the evening or even the reverse, up in the morning and collapse in the evening.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

So it's Monday morning... What's the word?

Stocks down roughly 0.5% in premarket.