***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[woodman1999]

Am I the only one getting a bit antsy with this market? I feel like at some point, some shoe is going to drop and this market is going to nose dive by a few thousand points. I have no data whatsoever to support this, but there are lots of profits out there to be taken and if everyone jumps ship around the same time, the selloff could be spectacular. It just seems like we've had it pretty good for to long and all good things must come to an end at some point.

 

[DietDrThunder]

Am I the only one getting a bit antsy with this market? I feel like at some point, some shoe is going to drop and this market is going to nose dive by a few thousand points. I have no data whatsoever to support this, but there are lots of profits out there to be taken and if everyone jumps ship around the same time, the selloff could be spectacular. It just seems like we've had it pretty good for to long and all good things must come to an end at some point.

HA! You are only now feeling antsy? My antsiness started in January of 2015.

 

[dasherHampton]

It's going to happen, probably sooner than later.

If my MU shares get called away in October I might park that money on the sidelines for a while. Same thing for my EPD shares in December.

 

[woodman1999]

HA! You are only now feeling antsy? My antsiness started in January of 2015.

It didn't really start now, but it's becoming a much more nagging feeling than it was in the past. For the most part it may have to do with being more heavily invested now then i was in the past and having more at risk. I am not trying to brag, but I see a lot of positive numbers in my accounts and I think it's making me think long and hard about taking some of those profits. I've been on stock roller coasters in the past and they never seem to come back up like I think they should.

 

[KB]

Am I the only one getting a bit antsy with this market? I feel like at some point, some shoe is going to drop and this market is going to nose dive by a few thousand points. I have no data whatsoever to support this, but there are lots of profits out there to be taken and if everyone jumps ship around the same time, the selloff could be spectacular. It just seems like we've had it pretty good for to long and all good things must come to an end at some point.

Sure I have been antsy for years when the DOW hit 21000, but I still hold on. Tax cuts and earnings growth should support growing dividends and buybacks.
The market "climbs a wall of worry" as they say. We have been through so many trying times from Treasuries above 3%, Greek Debt Crises, Trade worries and yet still it climbs. You should be worried when you aren't antsy, when everyone is overcome with euphoria and trying to get greedy.

 

[AznAnarchy99]

Highly considering selling my NVDA and ATVI stock to buy another AMZN stock.

 

[woodman1999]

NVDA, AMD, TRXC, AAPL, V, SDY, and KBE are all names I am interested in trimming at the least and then just leaving those proceeds in cash.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Sure I have been antsy for years when the DOW hit 21000, but I still hold on. Tax cuts and earnings growth should support growing dividends and buybacks.
The market "climbs a wall of worry" as they say. We have been through so many trying times from Treasuries above 3%, Greek Debt Crises, Trade worries and yet still it climbs. You should be worried when you aren't antsy, when everyone is overcome with euphoria and trying to get greedy.

Yeah, well said - I think I'm going to stay out from any mass buys - especially from well established stuff. I'm also a tax person, so just paying capital gains instead of income tax on my sells alone is enough to entice me not to sell my AMD or CMG just yet.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It didn't really start now, but it's becoming a much more nagging feeling than it was in the past. For the most part it may have to do with being more heavily invested now then i was in the past and having more at risk. I am not trying to brag, but I see a lot of positive numbers in my accounts and I think it's making me think long and hard about taking some of those profits. I've been on stock roller coasters in the past and they never seem to come back up like I think they should.

Always remember - buy high - sell low.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Okay, so I was thinking about buying a put on TSLA now that I am more familiar with the company. Unfortunately, TSLA stock spreads are wide and price is volatile, which causes options to be, well, pricey.

Now I can finally afford to buy one put on TSLA.

Funding secured!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, Advanced Micro Devices is overpriced, over hyped and will eventually get crushed by Intel like it always does. I think I will short AMD after the next earnings report.

 

[zinfamous]

Also, Advanced Micro Devices is overpriced, over hyped and will eventually get crushed by Intel like it always does. I think I will short AMD after the next earnings report.

someone hasn't been reading....

But I do think it went way too high way too fast this week.

Intel's biggest problem right now is Intel. It looks like they are going to be taking a bath over the next two years while Epyc on 7nm does its thing. The GloFo news may only be a problem if there is just not enough space to share with Nvidia, Apple, and AMD over at TSMC and too much demand for Epyc, but this was apparently already in the books for AMD a year ago. It seems they were already planning for this, and the other plus is they are going to be re-negotiating their WSA with GloFo...so less fees going outside of GloFo, on top of some more debt reduction.

Fact is, Intel has been outright lazy and boring for the last 5 years. No one is really all that wowed by them. AMD is a totally different story. Both are completely different companies with completely different leadership (well, one actually has a leader right now...), and one seems to have a real solid plan in the works through at least 2021-2022 when it comes to grabbing and holding a giant chunk of the server market.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Okay, so I was thinking about buying a put on TSLA now that I am more familiar with the company. Unfortunately, TSLA stock spreads are wide and price is volatile, which causes options to be, well, pricey.

Now I can finally afford to buy one put on TSLA.

Funding secured!

The put has been sold for a small profit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

someone hasn't been reading....

But I do think it went way too high way too fast this week.

Intel's biggest problem right now is Intel. It looks like they are going to be taking a bath over the next two years while Epyc on 7nm does its thing. The GloFo news may only be a problem if there is just not enough space to share with Nvidia, Apple, and AMD over at TSMC and too much demand for Epyc, but this was apparently already in the books for AMD a year ago. It seems they were already planning for this, and the other plus is they are going to be re-negotiating their WSA with GloFo...so less fees going outside of GloFo, on top of some more debt reduction.

Fact is, Intel has been outright lazy and boring for the last 5 years. No one is really all that wowed by them. AMD is a totally different story. Both are completely different companies with completely different leadership (well, one actually has a leader right now...), and one seems to have a real solid plan in the works through at least 2021-2022 when it comes to grabbing and holding a giant chunk of the server market.

You are right about AMD. It is successful and will continue to be so. The last time AMD held the lead over Intel was just before the release of Northwood Pentium Chips. At the time, AMD was the only one that integrated memory controllers into the CPU itself, thus giving it a significant advantage over Intel.

Then came Northwood Pentiums and AMD was relegated back to the ash heap of history for another 10+ years.

AMD currently has a lead over Intel but do not expect the challenge to go unanswered (SUCCESSFULLY) for long. Sure, Intel my try different ways of regaining momentum, and they might all fail near term, but when it finally succeeds at doing so - watch out. They will put their mighty foot so far AMD's ass, it may take another 10+ years for AMD to recover.

I hope AMD can continue to innovate however and avoid such a thing from happening.

Competition benefits us all!

 

[dasherHampton]

IQ is vexing the shit out of me.

9/7 puts are incredibly juicy: $145 a contract. That means the options world believes it's almost certainly going below.

If I throw down 20 puts it'll be close to 3 grand, then throw out 11/6 35 calls at $125 a contract if I get put the shares, for another $2500.

If IQ goes above 35 by 11/6 (which is very likely) it's a $15,000+ haul.

Of course, it could go bad (like any play that involves some risk).

Any thoughts?

 

[FelixDeCat]

I dont know enough about IQ to give a good enough opinion, but at first blush they look like the general business model is consumer discretionary services business that is sacrificing profit over growth. The market cap looks pretty generous ($20B). The growth over profit model works well as long as Wall Street is pleased with the growth number percentage. It seems as the stock can go anywhere at anytime - Trump's blustering affecting China stocks (that are already in a bear market) vs. another positive growth # release.

The last quote on IQ is $28.90. I was looking at the weekly September 7 puts and it looks like you are willing to take delivery at $30.00, a difference of $-1.10.

The bid on the $30P is $1.40, last trade $1.45, so your real net profit form "buying up to" $30 as of Tuesday will be $.35 cents. If you really want to own the stock, it would seem the $29.00 puts offer more profit (.75 cents net) and also give a little room for downward risk.

 

[dasherHampton]

The 29 puts were selling for a little less that half of the 30 puts iirc. But if I'm truly confident in the belief that IQ could be over 35 in November that extra dollar per share will be worth $2000 anyway.

So:

30 puts

20 contracts ( 30 puts) @ $145 a contract = $2900
if exercised
20 contracts (11/16 35 calls) @ $125 a contract = $2500
profit if options are exercised - $10,000
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
$15,400

29 puts

20 contracts (29 puts) @ $75 a contract = $1500
if exercised
20 contracts (11/16 35 calls) @ $125 a contact = $2500
profits if options are exercised - $12,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
$16,000

You're absolute correct sir, in pretty much every way. There's almost no chance the puts won't be exercised on Friday.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gee I hope you didnt short those puts .. oof!

 

[dasherHampton]

I scaled back the entire operation. Ended up selling 10 28.5 Friday puts instead of 20 29 puts. I'm still a little leery of IQ. I need to get comfortable.

A friend of mine turned me on to BILI. I sold 10 9/21 12.5 puts for a grand. He says if I get put the stock I'll be looking at some fat calls.

And, as everyone knows - the calls are where the money is, not the puts.

 

[KB]

Okay, so I was thinking about buying a put on TSLA now that I am more familiar with the company. Unfortunately, TSLA stock spreads are wide and price is volatile, which causes options to be, well, pricey.

Now I can finally afford to buy one put on TSLA.

Funding secured!

Speaking of TSLA, Elons at it again. This time he raised the stakes and called "pedo" guy an outright "child-rapist".
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...ave-rescuer-calls-him-child-rapist-2018-09-04

With a CEO like Elon and some amazing competition out there like Mercedes, I would be scared to own TSLA.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/class...-auto-mercedes-eqc-launch-20180904-story.html

 

[zinfamous]

Speaking of TSLA, Elons at it again. This time he raised the stakes and called "pedo" guy an outright "child-rapist".
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/e...ave-rescuer-calls-him-child-rapist-2018-09-04

With a CEO like Elon and some amazing competition out there like Mercedes, I would be scared to own TSLA.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/class...-auto-mercedes-eqc-launch-20180904-story.html

This guy is going full Trump. Never go full Trump.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Meanwhile TSLA stock falls to $280, I think it may find a floor at $220.

Too bad I sold my put.

 

[dasherHampton]

Me keeping my MU shares is looking pretty damn likely right now. Pocketing the premium on the calls isn't the worst thing in the world. I think they were just shy of $40,000.

MU has so many great fundamental things supporting it: 10 billion in share buybacks, massive expansion of existing operations, many patents involving tech that's emerging. It'll be back.

 

[FelixDeCat]

MU down 10% tho is going to sting lots of other investors. Next earnings better shine or it might be a $30ish stock soon.

 

[dasherHampton]

I'm not going to deny I'm taking it on the chin right now but I can afford to hold it. MU is one of the best tech companies in the world. They'll be back.