***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

Should I panick sell all my stocks at a realized loss?

In most cases that would be an overreaction, but there are quite a few variables that affect your question, probably about 20. The obvious discussions are about what stocks you're holding, but right behind them would be "Are you investing with money you can't afford to lose?" and (related) "Can you wait out a downturn?"

If you're determined to flush your account why not do it with some easy in the money puts? That way you can make some cash while you're pushing down on the handle. But that's a thought for several levels down the road.

Are you paying margin interest?

 

[jpiniero]

Mortgage rates nearing 5%...

 

[KB]

Should've bet my life savings on SHLD when it was $2

Aren't you glad you didn't. I know this is an older post from April, but even then I knew SHLD was going bye-bye soon.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...it-prepares-to-file-for-bankruptcy-2018-10-09

 

[jpiniero]

The broad market still seems grossly overvalued to me.

The current S&P 500 average P/E is over 23.

Edit: make that the 10 year running P/E.

Yeah, and to me, the end of the year/early next year seems like the perfect time for Wall Street to get valuations back to historical norms. With the Democrats likely to get the house, it's very unlikely that they would be getting another tax cut to prop up the market a bit longer.

I don't expect the Fed to raise rates much beyond one more in December; but there is the risk they will continue to do so every couple of months.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Panic on Wall Street!

 

[IronWing]

Panic on Wall Street!

Less than 1% is a panic? Come on, you've been around longer than that.

 

[IronWing]

I get to recycle a joke!

If you drop a super ball and a beach ball from the Sears Tower would either hit the ground faster than Sears stock?

 

[repoman0]

Vanguard online trades are down this morning, just as I wanted to move some of my money into safer assets. I'm going to roll my Vanguard accounts over to Fidelity, tired of having everything split anyway and Fidelity trades are cheaper.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Less than 1% is a panic? Come on, you've been around longer than that.

You cant look at one day off 2.24% and say, "bah, humbug".

My favorite market barometer is the QQQs. The 52 week high for the largest tech heavy Nasdaq 100 stocks was $187.53, we are now off 12 points (a total of 6.50%) from just SEVEN DAYS ago.

If we fall another 2.50%, that is called a correction. We probably fall another 2.50% if the 10 year bond keeps going up before earnings season begins 10/17/18.

If earnings are not to Wall Street's liking - KATY BAR THE DOOR next week! If earnings are good, the market could easily rise past the 52 week highs.

 

[IronWing]

Sounds good, I need to buy in.

 

[Ns1]

Aren't you glad you didn't. I know this is an older post from April, but even then I knew SHLD was going bye-bye soon.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...it-prepares-to-file-for-bankruptcy-2018-10-09

lol just came in here to post this, looks like SHLD is finally imploding.

 

[John McCabe]

I opened a 529 college plan, using this portfolio from Vanguard - it is a balanced Growth portfolio.

https://investor.vanguard.com/529-plan/profile/4510

I put in $10K. It has been 1.5 months and in that time, it has lost $200. Every day it seems to lose more.

Is this normal, or have I chosen the wrong portfolio. Not experienced with investing, so would appreciate any advice.

Thank you.

 

[zinfamous]

I opened a 529 college plan, using this portfolio from Vanguard - it is a balanced Growth portfolio.

https://investor.vanguard.com/529-plan/profile/4510

I put in $10K. It has been 1.5 months and in that time, it has lost $200. Every day it seems to lose more.

Is this normal, or have I chosen the wrong portfolio. Not experienced with investing, so would appreciate any advice.

Thank you.

It's 75% into their Institutional Index fund, which is very safe and very solid. You shouldn't worry too much about movement over a 2 month period as it isn't really going to tell you much. Your goal here is long term, not short term. Are you looking at ~20 years or so or less for this (Assuming new-born or maybe even older kid?).

If it were me....I would likely just dump it all into the Stock Index fund and go 100% stocks, which is more aggressive but has the most growth potential out of the funds in that portfolio....but it is also relatively safe because it owns shares in the entirety of the market. Bonds are typically considered "safe" and a good place to park a giant wad of cash now if you currently depend on that cash for living expenses (say, you are retired), but they can definitely be effected by temporary market trends.

Basically: you are fine where you are if you want something near 8% year-to-year growth that they claim with that fund. Just ignore the short term and yes, it is easy to hover over something like that when you just opened it with a big wad of cash. But you didn't open it to turn a big profit within a year, did you?

 

[jpiniero]

If we fall another 2.50%, that is called a correction. We probably fall another 2.50% if the 10 year bond keeps going up before earnings season begins 10/17/18.

I wouldn't really call it a correction (yet at least) until it falls below the low for the year (which was 153). So we have a ways to go.

 

[dasherHampton]

I've been shrugging off the market drops secure in the knowledge that world economic fundamentals are fine but they're starting to come under attack.

China is having economic problems regardless of the trade war.
India is a mess.
South America is a mess.
Oil is going to sky rocket.

If you're going to hold be prepared to hold for a while. Luckily (for me) the sale of my parent's estate closes very soon and I'll have enough cash to ride out whatever happens the next few years.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Down about 5% total on my investments today...

God damnit should have put more into weed stocks. When times get shitty humans get more depressed and abuse more drugs and alcohol.

AMD is down to about 25 or so. Wondering if I should have sold when it was in its 30s or buy now because it will go even higher...

 

[brianmanahan]

 

[Dave_5k]

I opened a 529 college plan, using this portfolio from Vanguard - it is a balanced Growth portfolio.

https://investor.vanguard.com/529-plan/profile/4510

I put in $10K. It has been 1.5 months and in that time, it has lost $200. Every day it seems to lose more.

Is this normal, or have I chosen the wrong portfolio. Not experienced with investing, so would appreciate any advice.

Thank you.

The answer depends on investment horizon and risk tolerance. If this is for a high school student, this is probably too risky. In short term it could easily lose 10%-20% or more. If this is starting a fund for an infant it is probably fine or arguably even too conservative, when looking at 10+ year investment horizon I'd tend closer to 100% stocks personally.
But all of this depends on your risk tolerance, and ability to stay the course during inevitable stock market downturns (like today!). 10% stock market drops (corrections) are not unusual, and 75% of this fund's value will largely mirror the stock market.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Just my honest opinion, but I highly doubt this will be an actual correction. I'm placing it as more of a hiccup.

Anticipating either a full or partial reversal tomorrow unless more negative news comes (not likely)

 

[FelixDeCat]

Just my honest opinion, but I highly doubt this will be an actual correction. I'm placing it as more of a hiccup.

Anticipating either a full or partial reversal tomorrow unless more negative news comes (not likely)

Umm the QQQs are already off nearly 10% from the 52 week. Look up the word correction

 

[FelixDeCat]

Futures looking pretty bad right now. Might recover in the AM.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Umm the QQQs are already off nearly 10% from the 52 week. Look up the word correction

Meh, until I see 10% fall off the dow/s&p within a week I don't consider it.

 

[Engineer]

Futures looking pretty bad right now. Might recover in the AM.

Dow futures down 300. Nasdaq down 60.

Might be a rocky day ahead....

Per CNBC, we're looking at about a 400 point drop on the open for the Dow.

Edit: At 9:00am, futures rocketed up with Nasdaq going positive and Dow at negative 57. Might be one of those yo-yo days......market behaves in strange ways at times.

Edit 2: Looks like the CPI report came in lower than expected. That may push the fed to slow down in interest rate hikes as inflation is under control as of now.

 

[dasherHampton]

The light inflation report is pretty big.

I tend to agree with Cramer that the Fed is behaving like the commander in Aliens, trying to do everything "by the book" without much actual feel or experience for how fragile and nebulous the situation is.

If a disaster begins to unfold they'll freeze just like he did.

 

[John McCabe]

It's 75% into their Institutional Index fund, which is very safe and very solid. You shouldn't worry too much about movement over a 2 month period as it isn't really going to tell you much. Your goal here is long term, not short term. Are you looking at ~20 years or so or less for this (Assuming new-born or maybe even older kid?).

If it were me....I would likely just dump it all into the Stock Index fund and go 100% stocks, which is more aggressive but has the most growth potential out of the funds in that portfolio....but it is also relatively safe because it owns shares in the entirety of the market. Bonds are typically considered "safe" and a good place to park a giant wad of cash now if you currently depend on that cash for living expenses (say, you are retired), but they can definitely be effected by temporary market trends.

Basically: you are fine where you are if you want something near 8% year-to-year growth that they claim with that fund. Just ignore the short term and yes, it is easy to hover over something like that when you just opened it with a big wad of cash. But you didn't open it to turn a big profit within a year, did you?

Thank you for your helpful reply. This is for 8-10 years investment. It is now down to $9,600 from 10,000. But after reading the responses here, I would just leave it be. Thank you again