***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
The light inflation report is pretty big.

I tend to agree with Cramer that the Fed is behaving like the commander in Aliens, trying to do everything "by the book" without much actual feel or experience for how fragile and nebulous the situation is.

If a disaster begins to unfold they'll freeze just like he did.

Define disaster.. after all QQQ before this dive was up over 60% since the last elections and tripled since 2011. Where is the next round of pumping going to come from?
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Bottom just dropped out....down 360 now. Was up about 60 earlier today.

Nasdaq taking a beating too.....

Might be getting close to a buy....lol!
 
Reactions: Ken g6

FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
My AMD stocks are still way, way up. Gonna buy more calls. Earnings coming up.


After I make bank on this earnings I'm putting half my funds into super long term AMD and TSLA calls, then 1/2 will go into puts on value traps like MU, F, and INTC. That should serve me well when we get to bear market territory.


Companies with huge top line growth like AMD and TSLA are the only solution to a bear market. Nobody cares about dividends if your stock goes down 50% in a year.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
Just saw an offer from TD saying they are participating in Barclay's step up notes, 3% for the next year, and then 4% for the following year. It makes me a bit nervous about stocks when it's starting to become appealing to do the stress free option for a little while... The only problem is I don't see anything about these being FDIC insured so I'll have to ask about them.

I don't know, I think another rate hike or two and this bull market is over.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Just saw an offer from TD saying they are participating in Barclay's step up notes, 3% for the next year, and then 4% for the following year. It makes me a bit nervous about stocks when it's starting to become appealing to do the stress free option for a little while... The only problem is I don't see anything about these being FDIC insured so I'll have to ask about them.

I don't know, I think another rate hike or two and this bull market is over.

Same feeling on stress free. Just picked up a few 15 month CD's from NASA FCU at 3.25%. Wish I would have done more now.

I'm not sure the FED will risk killing the economy.....as stocks go, the CEO's will do whatever to bring the prices back up (or stabilize them)....and starts with layoffs usually.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Thank you for your helpful reply. This is for 8-10 years investment. It is now down to $9,600 from 10,000. But after reading the responses here, I would just leave it be. Thank you again

It should be noted that the current drop you are seeing is basically because the overall market is just tanking right now, in this moment. It might be a longer-term trend (month or months), but nothing to really worry about for your goals. In fact...assuming you aren't limited by annual contributions (I'm not really sure about the limits on a 529), then this is actually a good time (maybe even better if the price keeps dropping) to buy more shares in that fund. This sorta edges into the stupidity of market timing, but the market is already falling. selling is obviously the wrong move, so it makes sense to buy buy buy when things look to settle out a bit (of course no one knows what the trough is, but you can be certain that prices on those shares now are already much better than what you will see on any given day in the next 8-10 years).
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
I'm not sure the FED will risk killing the economy.....as stocks go, the CEO's will do whatever to bring the prices back up (or stabilize them)....and starts with layoffs usually.

That's the other reason why I think this is the perfect time to get valuations back in order... it's a good excuse for mass layoffs.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Same feeling on stress free. Just picked up a few 15 month CD's from NASA FCU at 3.25%. Wish I would have done more now.

Thats a damn good rate. My stock portfolio is averaging at this point about 4.6% dividend yield (big yields from REITS, telecoms, MLPS, even banks and insurers are yielding > 3%), of course it has more a lot more volatility to the down and upside.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
lol I told you guys to sell a few days ago...

Expect a tiny bounce before the close or definitely tomorrow.

Remember Alcoa kicks off earnings season next week, and dip buyers will be hoping for a bounce.

We are already down 12% from the 52 week high in the QQQs, and its probably not over until at least next week.
 
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Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
NASDAQ in correction now. Dow and S&P not there yet. The S&P just slipped out of previous correction about a month or so ago. Too much FED and too much trade war.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Hmmm.. NVDA 210 puts for 1/18/19 are over $1000.

How far could Nvidia possibly fall? Their outlook seems very good.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
NASDAQ in correction now. Dow and S&P not there yet. The S&P just slipped out of previous correction about a month or so ago. Too much FED and too much trade war.

The rise in the 10 year bond has been blamed (rising interest rates) for the market decline. The computer algorithms that manage most retirement funds in the world are keyed to sell based on the price of that bond.

The Fed left the rate alone from 2008-2015, an unprecedented move, but since then they have raised rates eight times. This has been called "normalization", and we are still not done yet as the economy is on fire!

The 10 year bond, however, has mostly ignored the Fed moves and been flat. Now its playing catch up and the algorithms are freaking out.
 
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Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
My AMD stocks are still way, way up. Gonna buy more calls. Earnings coming up.


After I make bank on this earnings I'm putting half my funds into super long term AMD and TSLA calls, then 1/2 will go into puts on value traps like MU, F, and INTC. That should serve me well when we get to bear market territory.


Companies with huge top line growth like AMD and TSLA are the only solution to a bear market. Nobody cares about dividends if your stock goes down 50% in a year.
Yeah I was wondering if I should buy more AMD. My problem is simply trying to determine if it was already overvalued though.

This is where I need to use my spidey senses...
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Same feeling on stress free. Just picked up a few 15 month CD's from NASA FCU at 3.25%. Wish I would have done more now.

I'm not sure the FED will risk killing the economy.....as stocks go, the CEO's will do whatever to bring the prices back up (or stabilize them)....and starts with layoffs usually.
No offense, but I don't see the point of doing ANY CDs or the like until the fed is done with interest rate hikes. Ever since the fed started raising rates Discover Bank has been sending me tons of advertisements trying to get me to fall for it.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
It should be noted that the current drop you are seeing is basically because the overall market is just tanking right now, in this moment. It might be a longer-term trend (month or months), but nothing to really worry about for your goals. In fact...assuming you aren't limited by annual contributions (I'm not really sure about the limits on a 529), then this is actually a good time (maybe even better if the price keeps dropping) to buy more shares in that fund. This sorta edges into the stupidity of market timing, but the market is already falling. selling is obviously the wrong move, so it makes sense to buy buy buy when things look to settle out a bit (of course no one knows what the trough is, but you can be certain that prices on those shares now are already much better than what you will see on any given day in the next 8-10 years).
Most people here don't make enough to hit the 529 limits.

But anyhow, I'm honestly not yet sure if this is a buying opportunity. I've been waiting a considerable amount of time now to invest my HSA funds but I just haven't yet seen the correction that I (ultimately) think is coming.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
No offense, but I don't see the point of doing ANY CDs or the like until the fed is done with interest rate hikes. Ever since the fed started raising rates Discover Bank has been sending me tons of advertisements trying to get me to fall for it.

I understand but 3.25% for 15 months was a no brainer. Nothing close to that and much better than any savings account that I have some money parked in....by far. That's exactly the reason that I have not committed any money to anything longer than the 15 months. I feel that rates are going to go up enough to make it worth the wait.....but the market may put the brakes on the hikes.

No offence taken by the way!
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
I understand but 3.25% for 15 months was a no brainer. Nothing close to that and much better than any savings account that I have some money parked in....by far. That's exactly the reason that I have not committed any money to anything longer than the 15 months. I feel that rates are going to go up enough to make it worth the wait.....but the market may put the brakes on the hikes.

No offence taken by the way!
Yeah by all means, that isnt shitty. So it's not like it was stupid.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Most people here don't make enough to hit the 529 limits.

But anyhow, I'm honestly not yet sure if this is a buying opportunity. I've been waiting a considerable amount of time now to invest my HSA funds but I just haven't yet seen the correction that I (ultimately) think is coming.

I think now and until it hits bottom is a buying opportunity. The only game to play is guessing when it hits bottom (no one does that out of pure luck) and best maximize the greed. There is no doubt it will climb back up to and beyond the highs seen earlier this year...but when? before the year is over? Next year? 5 years from now? I don't think it will be that bleak, but point is it's only dumb to start selling.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
I think now and until it hits bottom is a buying opportunity. The only game to play is guessing when it hits bottom (no one does that out of pure luck) and best maximize the greed. There is no doubt it will climb back up to and beyond the highs seen earlier this year...but when? before the year is over? Next year? 5 years from now? I don't think it will be that bleak, but point is it's only dumb to start selling.
I thought we were supposed to sell low and buy high, isnt that how lt works?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
I think now and until it hits bottom is a buying opportunity. The only game to play is guessing when it hits bottom (no one does that out of pure luck) and best maximize the greed. There is no doubt it will climb back up to and beyond the highs seen earlier this year...but when? before the year is over? Next year? 5 years from now? I don't think it will be that bleak, but point is it's only dumb to start selling.

The futures market (at this moment) is pointing to a half percent rise.

Next week may be flat to up ASSUMING Alcoa's earnings and outlook aren't too negatively impacted by tariffs. Otherwise, expect the tariff tax to start working its way through earnings in a negative way for multinational conglomerates. Some companies might post surprise increases as tariffs work in their favor.

Lower earnings however only mean one thing - lower markets.
 
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