***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

The futures market (at this moment) is pointing to a half percent rise.

Next week may be flat to up ASSUMING Alcoa's earnings and outlook aren't too negatively impacted by tariffs. Otherwise, expect the tariff tax to start working its way through earnings in a negative way for multinational conglomerates. Some companies might post surprise increases as tariffs work in their favor.

Lower earnings however only mean one thing - lower markets.

Meh, Americans will spend their money regardless of tariffs and if it's China junk. At the end of the day they just buy whichever is the cheapest item on the shelf - regardless of how much it costs.

They will buy the item they want no doubt - how much they pay is simply determined by whatever item is cheapest at the time.

 

[FIVR]

AMD up 5% pre market. Why is the stock market so easy?

 

[FelixDeCat]

AMD up 5% pre market. Why is the stock market so easy?

What would you do if AMD hit $22. after earnings?

 

[dasherHampton]

So far BILI has been an ATM for me. I hope it continues. If you're into trading cheaper stocks its definitely worth a look.

I'm still down on my IQ stock but I'm about break even if you include the calls I've sold. Hopefully I can go black from here on out.

 

[woodman1999]

So far BILI has been an ATM for me. I hope it continues. If you're into trading cheaper stocks its definitely worth a look.

I'm still down on my IQ stock but I'm about break even if you include the calls I've sold. Hopefully I can go black from here on out.

Are you trading BILI through options or actual stock? You seem to be an options guy which is why I ask as that is way past me at this point.

 

[dasherHampton]

I sold 10 12.5 contracts the first time out for a little over $1000. The stock dropped below the strike price but the options weren't exercised.

The second time out I made a decent move (for once, lately) and sold 20 12.5 contracts for about $2700 when the stock dropped under $12.

BILI options are monthly, so if BILI stays above 12.5 by next Friday I'll make about $3700 in two months. Thats not bad for a stock a little over $10. Pretty low risk investment all things considered.

Its not like I'm playing around with a $100 stock.

 

[zinfamous]

What would you do if AMD hit $22. after earnings?

I would be mildly sad that I am only up 270% at that point.

 

[FIVR]

What would you do if AMD hit $22. after earnings?

I would hold my hundreds of 2020 calls which are up 300-600% and would still be up 200-400% at $22 share price. I plan on rolling the 2020s into 2022 next year and holding these 2021 calls all the way through AMD's killer roadmap. That means late 2021 I might sell.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sell.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I would be mildly sad that I am only up 270% at that point.

Poor guy. Hopefully Donald Trump's tax cuts will help.

 

[FIVR]

Sell.

You told me to sell AAPL when it was 155. You have a bad habit of prediction the wrong thing every single time


Things you predicted that were wrong (off the top of my head):

- Apple crashing
- AMD crashing
- JC Penny rising
- A bear market
- Oil going over 100 a barrel
- Kavanaugh being voted down


I'm sure there's way more that I don't remember

 

[FelixDeCat]

You told me to sell AAPL when it was 155. You have a bad habit of prediction the wrong thing every single time


Things you predicted that were wrong (off the top of my head):

- Apple crashing
- AMD crashing
- JC Penny rising
- A bear market
- Oil going over 100 a barrel
- Kavanaugh being voted down


I'm sure there's way more that I don't remember

Oil has a fair chance of seeing 100, but I hope not. I hate $4 gas with all my heart.

JCP might stand to gain long term from a Sears liquidation if they can stay afloat long enough.

AMD might see $75 one day but will see $22 first. Thats a correction from $33 - a crash, if you will, and maybe a good buying opportunity or good shorting opportunity.

And we are only 8-9 % away from a technical bear in large cap techs QQQ.

Kavanugh I will admit I was wrong on, unless the Dems take power one day and are successful in removing him. Hopefully it wont happen but you never know.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I was also wrong about Apple.

 

[zinfamous]

Poor guy. Hopefully Donald Trump's tax cuts will help.

I am not in the 0.5%, so it's only a Trump-loan for me....and for basically the rest of you.

 

[dasherHampton]

I think that market swing gave me whiplash.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think that market swing gave me whiplash.

You aint seen nothing yet.

3rd and 4th quarter earnings will bring lots of volatility.

 

[FIVR]

Go look at a historical chart of AMD from october into november. Only an idiot would sell AMD now.

 

[dasherHampton]

You aint seen nothing yet.

Dow went negative just as I had to take a short phone call. As soon as I hung up I looked and it was back to 150 positive.

Maybe I'm getting my mojo back. I've been ignoring the NBR swings but finally pushed back in when it dropped under 6. Now it's back to 6.13.

9 minutes to decided whether its a day trade or not.

 

[dasherHampton]

lol I've been meaning to do this for a while but I keep forgetting.

The next time Tilray is down I'm betting my lunch on them. I'm going to buy a single share and use whatever amount it goes up on lunch.

If it goes down it'll be a sandwich and water for lunch that day.

 

[jpiniero]

I am not in the 0.5%, so it's only a Trump-loan for me....and for basically the rest of you.

The only reason the stock market hasn't crashed yet is because of the tax cuts. I am not a fan but that's just the reality of it.

Go look at a historical chart of AMD from october into november. Only an idiot would sell AMD now.

The PE is 90 even now. That seems a bit much, even with Rome coming.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The only reason the stock market hasn't crashed yet is because of the tax cuts. I am not a fan but that's just the reality of it.

The PE is 90 even now. That seems a bit much, even with Rome coming.

I can understand the enthusiasm surrounding AMD. As you pointed out the P/E for AMD is approaching 6x the average for semiconductor stocks, so I think the enthusiasm really did get out of hand but has corrected some (falling from $34 to $26). I think AMD will see $22 after earnings because expectations are so high that it will be easy to disappoint.

All that being said, long term execution of a high growth plan might bring a $50 - $75 stock price some day, but it will be a long struggle I think with lots of drops along the way. If you are a long term stock holder, you do not need to sell.

Certain segments of the the stock market (like large cap tech stocks) however have been overheated for some time. And that you can sell!

 

[FIVR]

The only reason the stock market hasn't crashed yet is because of the tax cuts. I am not a fan but that's just the reality of it.



The PE is 90 even now. That seems a bit much, even with Rome coming.

P/E will change with earnings report. Forward P/E was over 130 last earnings report too. At one point trailing P/E was over 400. This is what happens when a company goes from making consistent losses to consistent profits. PE has to go from negative to positive and as a result at some point it will have to be very very high. There is no way to avoid this. It is a mathematical certainty. No company can go from negative P/E to positive without crossing a point where they will make very small profits (which results in very high P/E).

 

[FIVR]

AMD might make it back to 30 before earnings!


I love this stock so much, I wish I could marry it. You really don't need any other stocks in your portfolio. Just sell everything and buy AMD calls (or shares if you're a pussy). The stock market really is that easy.

 

[FelixDeCat]

timber!!!!

 

[FIVR]

timber!!!!

AMD is recession-proof.