***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Tesla is going to start producing Model 3 in the new Shanghai Gigafactory in 2019. That's insanely fast. They just secured and closed on the land transaction last week! This kind of quick building and construction pace sounds impossible to me but I'm basing that on US new construction pace. Shanghai Gigafactory was supposed to come online in late 2020. Tesla has filed with the Chinese government that they're planning to build Model 3 and Model Y in the Shanghai Gigafactory. This is news because Tesla and Elon only mentioned building Model 3 there. If they're also building Model Y there, I bet the Shanghai Gigafactory is going to pump out 1 million cars a year for the Chinese market. 500,000 Model 3 and 500,000 Model Y a year.

 

[FelixDeCat]

LOL!! I told you guys to watch out with AMD. There was too much "hope" in that stock and it was bound to disappoint one way or another.

I thought $22 would be the low but DAMN - $17!! Is this the buying opportunity you were waiting for? Will AMD go back up to $22 or higher eventually?

I am hoping the market is about to reach a short term bottom and start going back up to maybe $175 on the QQQs. Otherwise, the other shoe will drop if earnings stink and we could break $160.

 

[FIVR]

Assuming you held those calls, congrats!

I did. Unfortunately I also held my AMD calls.


All in all I should make money. This is my first failure to correctly predict an earnings report since 2016. This is a bad omen.


I will hold my AMD calls because most of them are 2020 and 2021 but I am definitely taking profit on TSLA.

 

[FIVR]

LOL!! I told you guys to watch out with AMD. There was too much "hope" in that stock and it was bound to disappoint one way or another.

I thought $22 would be the low but DAMN - $17!! Is this the buying opportunity you were waiting for? Will AMD go back up to $22 or higher eventually?

I am hoping the market is about to reach a short term bottom and start going back up to maybe $175 on the QQQs. Otherwise, the other shoe will drop if earnings stink and we could break $160.

Good job, you got one right.


I doubt it will stay below 20 for long but there is no way to be sure.

 

[jpiniero]

Good job, you got one right.
I doubt it will stay below 20 for long but there is no way to be sure.

I was kind of thinking the issue is more the consoles and the demise of crypto, but it does suggest they aren't doing as much Epyc business as people may have anticipated. They might be waiting for Zen 2.

 

[FIVR]

I was kind of thinking the issue is more the consoles and the demise of crypto, but it does suggest they aren't doing as much Epyc business as people may have anticipated. They might be waiting for Zen 2.

Console revenue is highly cyclical and was forecasted correctly, it was the crypto (GPU) revenue that caught investors off guard. They actually met their own guidance on revenue (barely) but investors had gotten used to the sugar high of crypto GPU revenues that were not sustainable. Lisa Su knew this and planned for it, but there was no way to convince the analysts that it wasn't sustainable so analysts own projections for revenue growth were not met by this report even though AMD's guidance was met.

Add in a market-wide selloff that has disproportionately affected both tech and companies that have recently made big gains and you get crazy overreactions like -23% on met guidance.

It will recover somewhat tomorrow. I am not the only one who realizes AMD's potential. There was nothing in this report that says the story about AMD has changed.

 

[zinfamous]

yup. The crypto nonsense was always nonsense. That revenue had died off almost 2 quarters ago, and anyone that was paying attention knew it. Q4 is where Q4 always is in this sector. Everyone is basically going to be down a bit. AMD gets hit hardest because it is a highly manipulated (day traded) stock. Intel is in...2 days? expect the same, but far less panic.

I think I am going to be buying some more AMD soon, lol. Rome is Q1-Q2, and that is the big play. I thought this year was $20 if lucky a few times, $15-18 value.

But that is without Rome.
Hail Caesar.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

CMG beats expectations again. Stock is up 8%.

I'm probably going to double down on AMD and buy a bit more. I'm not sure if it will hit $32+, but I would definetly say it's more than 18.

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol @amazon

sales and revs disappoint, shares tumble

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

lol @amazon

sales and revs disappoint, shares tumble

I wouldnt laugh at Amazon for too long. Even if their sales suck a given quarter they are killing it with their cloud storage and shit.

It's like trying to laugh at Walmart... in the end it's like laughing at the winner.

There are plenty of examples in life that I wish I had the extra capital to invest in - because if I did amazon would have been one of them hands down. Of course, at the time I was a broke college student or working my way up (maxing 401 before worrying about taxable)

 

[jpiniero]

I wouldnt laugh at Amazon for too long. Even if their sales suck a given quarter they are killing it with their cloud storage and shit.

You're talking about a 140 PE though. It was inevitable that the PE was going to come down.

 

[ponyo]

It's war everyday with Tesla. Stock was up another $25 today in a day when the market and techs are getting killed. But like clockwork at 1:57 pm, Dow Jones reported that DOJ is looking into possible criminal probe of Tesla over its Model 3 production disclosure dating back to early 2017. It's unreal. It's crazy how much the big powerful people like the Koch brothers and short sellers are trying to spread FUD and stop Tesla from succeeding. There are really powerful rich people in the oil and auto industry who have powerful friends in SEC and DOJ. It's ridiculous how quickly SEC brought charges against Elon and Tesla. It was literally like 2 months. That's unheard of. SEC is government agency that moves at snails pace and any other normal case would've been like 1.5 to 2 years. But this is Tesla and they must be stopped from succeeding. Tesla stock dropped like $25-30 immediately on that news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/tes...ion-numbers-and-misleading-investors-wsj.html

It has since recovered couple dollars but still way off the high of the day. Larry Ellison has come out and defended Elon Musk and Tesla of all the negative media coverage and bias. Ellison has disclosed Tesla is his second largest investment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-says-tesla-is-his-second-biggest-investment
I love Larry's quote, "“This guy is landing rockets,” Ellison said. “You know, he’s landing rockets on robot drone rafts in the ocean. And you’re saying he doesn’t know what he’s doing. Well, who else is landing rockets? You ever land a rocket on a robot drone? Who are you?”

 

[zinfamous]

It's war everyday with Tesla. Stock was up another $25 today in a day when the market and techs are getting killed. But like clockwork at 1:57 pm, Dow Jones reported that DOJ is looking into possible criminal probe of Tesla over its Model 3 production disclosure dating back to early 2017. It's unreal. It's crazy how much the big powerful people like the Koch brothers and short sellers are trying to spread FUD and stop Tesla from succeeding. There are really powerful rich people in the oil and auto industry who have powerful friends in SEC and DOJ. It's ridiculous how quickly SEC brought charges against Elon and Tesla. It was literally like 2 months. That's unheard of. SEC is government agency that moves at snails pace and any other normal case would've been like 1.5 to 2 years. But this is Tesla and they must be stopped from succeeding. Tesla stock dropped like $25-30 immediately on that news.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/26/tes...ion-numbers-and-misleading-investors-wsj.html

It has since recovered couple dollars but still way off the high of the day. Larry Ellison has come out and defended Elon Musk and Tesla of all the negative media coverage and bias. Ellison has disclosed Tesla is his second largest investment. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...n-says-tesla-is-his-second-biggest-investment
I love Larry's quote, "“This guy is landing rockets,” Ellison said. “You know, he’s landing rockets on robot drone rafts in the ocean. And you’re saying he doesn’t know what he’s doing. Well, who else is landing rockets? You ever land a rocket on a robot drone? Who are you?”

Well, it's not like Elon is the one landing rockets on drone boats, but I like the comment.

This is one of those theories that triggers my nutjob conspiracy alarm...but I also find it to be highly credible. Don't know what to think about it...

 

[ponyo]

Well, it's not like Elon is the one landing rockets on drone boats, but I like the comment.

This is one of those theories that triggers my nutjob conspiracy alarm...but I also find it to be highly credible. Don't know what to think about it...

It pisses me off that Wall St Journal can publish some BS story based on unidentified sources about DOJ and FBI probe to clearly halt powerful Tesla stock momentum during the trading day without any consequence. Elon got hit with lawsuits from short sellers and got sued by SEC for this "Funding Secured" comment during the trading day. He had to pay $40 million in fine ($20 for him and $20 for Tesla which he paid) and is going have to step down as chairman of Tesla for 3 years. Wall St. Journal and unidentified sources are going to get nothing even though Tesla released statement to refute the Wall St Journal story. Musk is right that SEC stands for Short seller enrichment commission. And Wall St Journal hates Tesla.

Tesla’s entire statement in response to Wall Street Journal story:

“Earlier this year, Tesla received a voluntary request for documents from the Department of Justice about its public guidance for the Model 3 ramp and we were cooperative in responding to it. We have not received a subpoena, a request for testimony, or any other formal process, and there have been no additional document requests about this from the Department of Justice for months.

When we started the Model 3 production ramp, we were transparent about how difficult it would be, openly explaining that we would only be able to go as fast as our least lucky or least successful supplier, and that we were entering ‘production hell.’ Ultimately, given difficulties that we did not foresee in this first-of-its-kind production ramp, it took us six months longer than we expected to meet our 5,000 unit per week guidance. Tesla’s philosophy has always been to set truthful targets – not sandbagged targets that we would definitely exceed and not unrealistic targets that we could never meet. While Tesla gets criticized when it is delayed in reaching a goal, it should not be forgotten that Tesla has achieved many goals that were doubted by most. We are enormously proud of the efforts of the whole company in making it through this difficult ramp and getting us to volume production.”

https://www.rgj.com/story/money/bus...-shares-momentum-stalled-fbi-news/1777803002/

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

It pisses me off that Wall St Journal can publish some BS story based on unidentified sources about DOJ and FBI probe to clearly halt powerful Tesla stock momentum during the trading day without any consequence. Elon got hit with lawsuits from short sellers and got sued by SEC for this "Funding Secured" comment during the trading day. He had to pay $40 million in fine ($20 for him and $20 for Tesla which he paid) and is going have to step down as chairman of Tesla for 3 years. Wall St. Journal and unidentified sources are going to get nothing even though Tesla released statement to refute the Wall St Journal story. Musk is right that SEC stands for Short seller enrichment commission. And Wall St Journal hates Tesla.

Tesla’s entire statement in response to Wall Street Journal story:

“Earlier this year, Tesla received a voluntary request for documents from the Department of Justice about its public guidance for the Model 3 ramp and we were cooperative in responding to it. We have not received a subpoena, a request for testimony, or any other formal process, and there have been no additional document requests about this from the Department of Justice for months.

When we started the Model 3 production ramp, we were transparent about how difficult it would be, openly explaining that we would only be able to go as fast as our least lucky or least successful supplier, and that we were entering ‘production hell.’ Ultimately, given difficulties that we did not foresee in this first-of-its-kind production ramp, it took us six months longer than we expected to meet our 5,000 unit per week guidance. Tesla’s philosophy has always been to set truthful targets – not sandbagged targets that we would definitely exceed and not unrealistic targets that we could never meet. While Tesla gets criticized when it is delayed in reaching a goal, it should not be forgotten that Tesla has achieved many goals that were doubted by most. We are enormously proud of the efforts of the whole company in making it through this difficult ramp and getting us to volume production.”

https://www.rgj.com/story/money/bus...-shares-momentum-stalled-fbi-news/1777803002/

Can you guys stop with the whole hardon for Elon? He's a rich investor just like plenty of others. Hes not special. He hasn't done anything that amazing that others haven't. He isnt generous with his money, etc.

Some of you guys I swear must see him in the news and instantly pop a boner.


I got nothing against him overall, but just seeing how crazy you guys go to valiantly defend him tells me why stocks like TSLA are so overvalued.

 

[ponyo]

Can you guys stop with the whole hardon for Elon? He's a rich investor just like plenty of others. Hes not special. He hasn't done anything that amazing that others haven't. He isnt generous with his money, etc.

Some of you guys I swear must see him in the news and instantly pop a boner.


I got nothing against him overall, but just seeing how crazy you guys go to valiantly defend him tells me why stocks like TSLA are so overvalued.

Yes, Elon is now rich. And he will be richer. My guess is in the future, Elon will be the richest person on Earth and on Mars. If you want to understand why I and others have man crush on Elon, you should do some real research into the history of Elon, Tesla, and SpaceX. Then you'll understand why he's super special and why I have more respect for him and what he's doing and trying to do than any other person or company. If you don't think starting and running two successful multi-billion dollar auto/energy and rocket company is amazing, I don't know what to tell you. I would say Elon is very generous with his money and his time. Elon risked all his money and devoted all his time and energy into Tesla and SpaceX so it wouldn't fail. He has benefited from its success but if Tesla succeed in its mission, then we all benefit.

Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy.

Didn't you say you owned some TSLA shares? If you think TSLA is so overvalued, you should immediately sell. And perhaps consider shorting or buying long term puts on TSLA. I will be betting against you but I like my chances as long as Elon is running Tesla. I look at TSLA and think it's the most grossly undervalued growth stock in the world. We can look back in 10 years and see who's right.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bloodbath on Wall Street continues....

(Too bad you didnt sell everything)

Edit ... Get ready for Santa Claus ralley!

 

[Engineer]

New report that the cheeto admin is planning on putting tariffs on the remaining 257 billion Chinese imports if nothing produced during next talks. Once you get the boulder rolling downhill, it's hard to stop....especially if you keep pushing it to make it faster.

 

[jpiniero]

Still nowhere near the YTD low... yet anyway...

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Perfect timing for all of this to be happening as we enter tax loss harvesting season...

 

[jpiniero]

Nice, GE just cut the dividend to one cent per share.

Oh and there's accounting issues too...

 

[John McCabe]

Guys, are these days still ok to put more money in the college 529 plan?

 

[KB]

Guys, are these days still ok to put more money in the college 529 plan?

Its almost always a good time to put money in a 529 plan. Just keep putting in a steady amount like $50 - 100 a month and forget about what the market is doing day to day.

 

[KB]

Nice, GE just cut the dividend to one cent per share.

Oh and there's accounting issues too...

JP Morgan Analyst Stephen Tusa had been downgrading GE for months since it was near $30. The guy won some serious street cred. Everything he said: two dividend cuts, huge writedowns in power, close to the $10 price target, have come to pass.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vide...ve-tusa-thinks-ge-shares-are-overvalued-video

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Perfect timing for all of this to be happening as we enter tax loss harvesting season...

I understand tax loss harvesting from a perspective of selling something like an index fund for a different similar index fund... but how do you guys apply it to something like an individual stock? Especially since after this correction it could very well springboard back in the next 30 days.