***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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FIVR

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2016
3,753
911
106
The Fed Rate increases is what's causing the pain. The Tax Cuts pretty much saved the stock market crash... for now. Don't expect it to last however.
*sigh*


Fed has to increase rates to prevent runaway inflation because Tariffs increase commodity prices.



It's like half the people on this forum have zero idea how the economy works. No wonder you people thought the stock market would crash if Dems won the house.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
*sigh*


Fed has to increase rates to prevent runaway inflation because Tariffs increase commodity prices.



It's like half the people on this forum have zero idea how the economy works. No wonder you people thought the stock market would crash if Dems won the house.

Do you know what a tariff is? A tariff is a tax but only on certain items. It is not considered inflationary because taxes pull money out of the economy.

The Fed is not raising rates because of tariffs, so it is pretty stupid to say that.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Lmfao. Perfect example of Trump pumpers in their bubble. It was only weeks ago you were talking about a bear market, but somehow this is the best performance in years? Do you even remember what the stock market was like during Obama?

You continue to conveniently ignore the fact that the market rose 42% since Trump took office in 2017 (QQQ 121 to 171). Thats 21% over two years. Even if QQQs continue to fall we will still be over the historical average of 10% a year.

The ecomomy is better now that it ever was thanks to tax cuts and deregulation. But even under the best circumstances the business cycle (and thus the stock market which is always betting on the future) WILL contract.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
The thing is I do support increasing the rates, but the Fed should have done it a long time ago to prevent this stock market bubble. At some point the correction has to happen, and now is the perfect time.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Okay, so now a "stronger dollar" is something else to worry about.

I'll add it to the so called "worry" list:

1) Rates continue to increase, Fed expected to raise rates in December. Current WSJ Prime Rate = 5.25%
2) Housing prices and demand continuing to fall
3) Oil crash signaling recession
4) Iphone sales declining, parts orders being cancelled, Apple in tailspin
5) Tariffs taking hold
6) Mexico and Brazil electing Nationalists like Trump
7) Unemployment at historical lows, GDP very strong, might need higher rates to prevent inflation
8) Stronger Dollar means higher prices for American goods overseas, meaning less sales and lower profits and stock prices - blah, blah, blah

Will any of this matter tomorrow?
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Okay, so now a "stronger dollar" is something else to worry about.

I'll add it to the so called "worry" list:

1) Rates continue to increase, Fed expected to raise rates in December. Current WSJ Prime Rate = 5.25%
2) Housing prices and demand continuing to fall
3) Oil crash signaling recession
4) Iphone sales declining, parts orders being cancelled, Apple in tailspin
5) Tariffs taking hold
6) Mexico and Brazil electing Nationalists like Trump
7) Unemployment at historical lows, GDP very strong, might need higher rates to prevent inflation
8) Stronger Dollar means higher prices for American goods overseas, meaning less sales and lower profits and stock prices - blah, blah, blah

Will any of this matter tomorrow?

Some of it really needed to be done though. House prices were already starting to get out of control. Approving shit credit people with 3% loans just sounds like pure retardation.

Prices need to stabilize. At the same time, we really need to ramp up production of building new homes. Something tells me the strong dollar and rising wages won't help with that though
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,544
3,471
136
Apparently my part of the country is exempt from the housing price decline. I put 5% down on my place last October and am about to get it reappraised to prove that I officially have 20% equity and can kill PMI after making the normal minimum payment for the past year. Probably going to do it after the busy season in the spring, I hope I'm not kicking myself for waiting when the time comes.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Will any of this matter tomorrow?

Looks like something still matters. Market seems hell bent on going down....so down it goes (again).

Edit: And like a yo-yo, it whiplashes back to positive territory, lol.

Fucking market......ugh! I'm getting too old for this shit.
 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
im thinking of triple shorting oil for 2 weeks.
symbol: oild

it ran up 30% in 2 days.
too late to get in?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
im thinking of triple shorting oil for 2 weeks.
symbol: oild

it ran up 30% in 2 days.
too late to get in?

I think you might be late to the party.....but then I do remember Oil dipping into the $20s a few years back.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,544
3,471
136
Upsa daisy.....downs a daisy....

Do you think it will be anything more than a day trading opportunity or long term SHORT?

I have no idea, I suck at stocks. I sold it at $280 after a 50% run up which was pretty lucky. P/E is still 36 which seems pretty high, but that number seems to be ignored when it comes to tech stocks.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
While the overall market has been struggling for the past month, Tesla has been kicking ass. It's showing incredible strength in face of weak market. If we have Santa Claus end of the year rally, I can see Tesla hitting all time high. I can already see all the future headlines talking about how Tesla hit the $420 take private price while staying public. Still the most undervalued growth company in the entire stock market.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
While the overall market has been struggling for the past month, Tesla has been kicking ass. It's showing incredible strength in face of weak market. If we have Santa Claus end of the year rally, I can see Tesla hitting all time high. I can already see all the future headlines talking about how Tesla hit the $420 take private price while staying public. Still the most undervalued growth company in the entire stock market.

Just sold today @ $363.

I honestly don't think they will hit $400 anytime soon. Definitely before then will be some other tweet, or someone smoking weed, or Elon calling someone a child-toucher for it to plop down to $250 again for me to buy at.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
I have no idea, I suck at stocks. I sold it at $280 after a 50% run up which was pretty lucky. P/E is still 36 which seems pretty high, but that number seems to be ignored when it comes to tech stocks.

It was a definate short. NVDA down hard another day.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Just sold today @ $363.

I honestly don't think they will hit $400 anytime soon. Definitely before then will be some other tweet, or someone smoking weed, or Elon calling someone a child-toucher for it to plop down to $250 again for me to buy at.
Always nice to book a profit. Tesla is holding remarkably strong while every other tech stocks are getting crushed but even it will eventually get dragged down if we don't get a bounce in the FAANG and the market soon. It's looking pretty ugly out there.

I don't know how soon Tesla will hit $400. It needs to break through its all time high first before we worry about $400. But my ultimate target for Tesla is lot higher than $400. I'm looking for $4000+. It doesn't mean I won't trade around the name with trading shares but I'm not touching my core position til $4,000.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Stocks off to another bad start today. Might do an intraday reversal after Europe closes at 10:30AM CST, or if the market tests another low later in the day.

APPL off anther $4 and NVDA down another $6.

edit: LOL - Goldman lowers APPL target price from $209 to $182. Talk about kicking something when its already down.
 
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Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Love how people thought Apple would be immune.

As if constantly being a money-hugging piece of shit company that no longer innovates but rather simply keeps milking the same product over and over wasn't going to catch-up to them eventually.

With companies like Samsung always driving to add new features, new hardware, etc... Apple was just always playing retroactively.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
I find it odd how weed stocks are down too in all of this.

If anything, bad economic times = people more depressed = people more willing to resolve to drinking/smoking for stress relief, no?
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,525
27,829
136
Love how people thought Apple would be immune.

As if constantly being a money-hugging piece of shit company that no longer innovates but rather simply keeps milking the same product over and over wasn't going to catch-up to them eventually.

With companies like Samsung always driving to add new features, new hardware, etc... Apple was just always playing retroactively.
Apple should have seen it coming. The iPhone X sold at stupid numbers. Upgrading phones has reached the point of diminishing returns where one has to skip a few versions to see noticeable improvements (unless Apple gimps the older phones ). Phones have arrived at the point where PCs were in ~2010. Doubling hardware specs doesn't improve the average user experience much.
 
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