***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

All eyes on the Federal Reserve on December 18/19. One rate hike expected bringing the US Prime Interest Rate to 5.5%. The language for future hikes will set the tone for the market.

I think next week we might start to see some dip buying for 2019, but then who really knows....

 

[Engineer]

Until then, futures are currently down a couple of hundred. Pain may not be over just yet.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Bear market? Looks at Tesla. Shrug. What bear market?

So far I'm loving TSLA. I just keep waiting for it to inevitably go back to $250... then resell at $350. It's just a constant wave that never ends.

 

[JEDI]

whats the point of Opec oil cuts?
sure, it will raise the price of oil. but they will sell less barrels because of the cuts.

how is it a net positive to them??

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

whats the point of Opec oil cuts?
sure, it will raise the price of oil. but they will sell less barrels because of the cuts.

how is it a net positive to them??

I don't disagree. Higher oil prices = Competition keeps pushing forward.

Low oil prices = competition busts...

But what do I know, I only work in oil/gas.

 

[IronWing]

Sub 24k, oh my.

 

[Engineer]

Sub 24k, oh my.

Maybe going back down to test the year lows (lower 23,xxx range).

Dow down 3,000 points or so from the yearly high.

 

[BurnItDwn]

I sold some of my employer company stock and bought some low cost small cap index funds last week (FSSNX).
Now it's down 6%

 

[ponyo]

I bought some Apple and Costco shares today for a trade. I think there's decent support level for Apple at $160 so I see about $5 potential downside short term vs maybe $25-35 upside if we get a bear market rally. Costco, I'm just adding to my existing position. I just think Costco is the best retailer and immune to even Amazon. Hopefully I can make some Christmas present money out these two.

 

[ponyo]

Sold the Costco trading shares I picked up on Monday during the dip. Costco reports earning today after the close and while I expect good results, who know how the market will react. I rather take the sure thing and lock in the profits while I can. I accomplished what I wanted and picked up some Christmas presents and spending money. I’m still holding on to the Apple shares.

 

[ponyo]

Bought back some of the Costco shares this morning at nice discount. Just the usual market earnings drama. Not worried about Costco.

Tesla is strong. Some of the shorts have/are covering so the short interest is down to around 21% as of 11/30/18. But 21% is still crazy high short interest. If Tesla can break its all time and then break through $400, we could see decent short squeeze. Especially as it approaches the now famous $420 take private price. I can see it rocketing it up to $460-480 pretty quick then. But we need the Nasdaq and the rest of the market to cooperate.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought back some of the Costco shares this morning at nice discount. Just the usual market earnings drama. Not worried about Costco.

Tesla is strong. Some of the shorts have/are covering so the short interest is down to around 21% as of 11/30/18. But 21% is still crazy high short interest. If Tesla can break its all time and then break through $400, we could see decent short squeeze. Especially as it approaches the now famous $420 take private price. I can see it rocketing it up to $460-480 pretty quick then. But we need the Nasdaq and the rest of the market to cooperate.

I am surprised how strong Tesla is right now. I think it is just a matter of time before something happens causing it to go down 15% in a day as it inevitably always does.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This week the Fed takes control. Probably not much action until Wednesday's outlook for rates is announced.

 

[Engineer]

This week the Fed takes control. Probably not much action until Wednesday's outlook for rates is announced.

Market is scared right now. I guess 2008-2010 still rings in many people's heads and hearts (emotions) right now.

Edit: Dow down another 400 as of this edit. Might retest the lows of 23,3xx soon, at this pace. If it goes below that on any type of volume, I suspect the bottom will drop out....again.

Side note: Companies bought a record 1 Trillion + of stock buybacks this year because of tax cuts. Looks to me like the trickle stopped at the top and didn't make it to the 'down' part (the heart of the economy).

 

[FelixDeCat]

Rally? You get a lump of coal!

-Santa Claus to stock market

 

[Engineer]

Dow was 100 points away from the 52 week low. Enough of a test or follow through with more pain?

What a shit show the market has become lately.

S&P500 took out the 52 week low. Nasdaq 80 points from 52 week low. (Edit: Now at 14 month low).

It doesn't feel like the economy is sinking but if this keeps up, CEO's are going to start cutting to get the price back up and that generally undercuts the economy and there goes the recession.....

Edit: General market is on pace to be the 2nd worst December EVER!

 

[jpiniero]

It doesn't feel like the economy is sinking but if this keeps up, CEO's are going to start cutting to get the price back up and that generally undercuts the economy and there goes the recession.....

At some point, you have to let it go. Besides, I imagine most companies have already blown their load taking on debt for stock buybacks.

 

[Engineer]

At some point, you have to let it go. Besides, I imagine most companies have already blown their load taking on debt for stock buybacks.

Not sure about debt but with the tax cuts, there was a record 1 TRILLION plus in stock buybacks this year. Tax cuts, buybacks, 49 year low in job loss, unemployment near a record (if not there) high.....and yet here we are falling faster than gravity, lol.

I suspect the Fed, deficits and the rising interest rates on the deficits/debt, trade war, government threatened shutdown = too much negativity and insecurity for the bigger investors and I'm sure the high speed trading systems are at sell....sell.....sell.

Edit: Forgot corporate record earnings....strong holiday sales....rising wages (so they say...I haven't seen it, lol).

 

[jpiniero]

Basically they're so addicted to pumping and need another hit. Either they need another round of Tax Cuts (unlikely now) or the Fed to stop raising if not cut rates.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Think I'm just not going to look at my stuff for 3-5 years.

 

[KB]

Its been a fairly orderly descent, which is good, not big flash crash panics so far. I am a bit concerned that the talk of recession will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. People sell the market because of fears of recession. Market selling causes people to concern about their retirement and wealth so they stop spending. Recession follows. We are no where near a 2008 recession though and pessimism typically means we are not at a top, so I hold.

 

[Engineer]

Market gravity took hold again....300+ on the Dow to -50 right now.

All three indexes have taken respectable gains and are now in the red. I'm getting too old for this shit.

 

[Engineer]

Market didn't like the Fed's language....has flipped the script from +350 to -500 and still falling.

What a shit show.....

 

[DietDrThunder]

Market didn't like the Fed's language....has flipped the script from +350 to -500 and still falling.

What a shit show.....

Shit show is right.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Today was quite frankly....an over reaction.

We all knew a bear market was imminent, but sometimes you can have nice rallys along the way. If you are short (I am not), they call them "rip your face off rally", when the DOW can be up 850+ points IN ONE DAY (3%+).