***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Is it time to buy yet?

lol, no, apparently not-

Now oil has jumped on the bandwagon, down another $2 to $46. Oil company stocks have single-handedly brought down the entire market before.

Futuers off -.50%, but improving.

I suspect a tiny bounce, maybe more if "bargain hunters" (short covering) start buying in an attempt to find a bottom.....somewhere.
 

DietDrThunder

Platinum Member
Apr 6, 2001
2,262
326
126
lol, no, apparently not-

Now oil has jumped on the bandwagon, down another $2 to $46. Oil company stocks have single-handedly brought down the entire market before.

Futuers off -.50%, but improving.

I suspect a tiny bounce, maybe more if "bargain hunters" (short covering) start buying in an attempt to find a bottom.....somewhere.
Oil futures down another 3% this morning. I guess it is time to go out and buy that giant gas guzzling pickup.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Nasdaq is now in bear market territory at 20% down.

Dow breached the 23,000 floor and is now in the 22,960's range. About 4,000 off the peak.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Its been a fairly orderly descent, which is good, not big flash crash panics so far. I am a bit concerned that the talk of recession will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. People sell the market because of fears of recession

The stock market isn't the economy and shouldn't be considered a barometer of one, especially when the market is so overvalued due to the pumping.

As I mentioned, the media is going to be distracted by the Trump vs the Democrats war, so maybe people won't notice.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
BTW, current odds have 225-250 as the favorite all the way until Jan 2020... and at the end of the year there is for the first time some small amount of betting on easing.
 

Lanyap

Elite Member
Dec 23, 2000
8,127
2,167
136
I don't think we will hit the bottom for another few months. It will go up and down but the overall trend will be down.
I sold and expect to sit out for the next few months.



Heh. I guess I’ll hold on to my cash for awhile.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
Trump is gonna tank the economy.

It's not just Trump. He isn't the one that started QE. Companies took out dirt cheap loans, pumped their own stocks through buybacks, and now QE is no longer supporting that. The monetary base of the US quadrupled in the past decade via QE. In a best case scenario, things simply cool down for a while. In a pessimistic scenario, over-leveraged players will bankrupt and send us into a recession. In the worst case scenario, we are witnessing the "Everything Bubble" popping, which would have been driven/funded by QE in hindsight.

Today is the first day I actually purchased a CD. I'm putting 10% into a small 1-3 year ladder. At least I know I won't lose money there - unless inflation goes rampant, in which case I've also got my small allocations of crypto and PMs for that.
 
Last edited:

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
It's not just Trump. He isn't the one that started QE. Companies took out dirt cheap loans, pumped their own stocks through buybacks, and now QE is no longer supporting that. The monetary base of the US quadrupled in the past decade via QE. In a best case scenario, things simply cool down for a while. In a pessimistic scenario, over-leveraged players will bankrupt and send us into a recession. In the worst case scenario, we are witnessing the "Everything Bubble" popping, which would have been driven/funded by QE in hindsight.

Today is the first day I actually purchased a CD. I'm putting 10% into a small 1-3 year ladder. At least I know I won't lose money there - unless inflation goes rampant, in which case I've also got my small allocations of crypto and PMs for that.

We have been in a secular bull market since 2009. Granted there were lots of down periods along way including 2011, 2013, 2015 and early 2018, but we still set new highs - eventually.

Frankly, people were living in LA-LA-LAND. Markets do not go up forever, just as the business cycle is not perpetually in growth mode. The market seems to think we are due for a pull back in growth and earnings based on higher rates and problems with trade that benefited the richest at the expense of American workers.

A healthy pull back is good for long term investors who average in through 401k plans. It is just hard to see stocks you buy today be worth less in just 24 hours.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
We have been in a secular bull market since 2009. Granted there were lots of down periods along way including 2011, 2013, 2015 and early 2018, but we still set new highs - eventually.

Frankly, people were living in LA-LA-LAND. Markets do not go up forever, just as the business cycle is not perpetually in growth mode. The market seems to think we are due for a pull back in growth and earnings based on higher rates and problems with trade that benefited the richest at the expense of American workers.

A healthy pull back is good for long term investors who average in through 401k plans. It is just hard to see stocks you buy today be worth less in just 24 hours.

Depends on how bad the correction is. With the government shutdown and the issues with trade, we could be in for a very nasty ride.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Those Dow Futures this morning...

If you're looking at Yahoo, something is wrong. The futures are down but not nearly as much as Yahoo lists (down 650 according to Yahoo). Bloomberg and others have them down around 33 (the Dow).

Regardless, it's another negative day in the making.
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,076
136
If you're looking at Yahoo, something is wrong. The futures are down but not nearly as much as Yahoo lists (down 650 according to Yahoo). Bloomberg and others have them down around 33 (the Dow).

Regardless, it's another negative day in the making.
I was, and was fairly shocked. Glad to hear it's not that bad.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
I was, and was fairly shocked. Glad to hear it's not that bad.

With that said, the futures are turning sharply negative, at -154 right now. Earlier, were at +90. Near a 250 point drop already. Not looking good. I wonder how many are going to look at Yahoo's numbers and just throw their hands up in panic and start dumping? It will happen.....

Cheeto has broken the market badly. Too much stupidity and chaos.
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,076
136
With that said, the futures are turning sharply negative, at -154 right now. Earlier, were at +90. Near a 250 point drop already. Not looking good.

Cheeto has broken the market badly. Too much stupidity and chaos.
But but stable genius! Best businessman ever!
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,076
136
Mnuchin working the phones to CEO's this weekend. Is meeting with his "Plunge Protection Team" this morning. A real shit show.
Early this year I was a bit disheartened that because I bought a house this year, I would be unable to put the type of money into the markets that I usually do (at least certainly not as early in the year). Now, though, boy am I glad. Happy to be spooling up to buy now...ish.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Mnuchin working the phones to CEO's this weekend. Is meeting with his "Plunge Protection Team" this morning. A real shit show.
Mnuchin calling the CEO of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citibank on Sunday while on vacation in Cabo is the reason why we're plunging. Mnuchin claims he called them to check for bank liquidity levels and to make sure it was ample.

You want to start a panic? This is how you start panic and bank run. Who calls bank CEOs on Sunday before Christmas to ask about bank liquidity if everything is ok and then says don't worry, everything is fine, I just checked? That's totally amateur hour and of course people will now freak out. Mnuchin just made Baghdad Bob very proud. "Don't worry, everything is fine. No need to panic!" He who panics first panics best. Mnuchin and Trump is supposed to meet with Plunge Protection Team today. You can bet the market will now test the PPT.
 
Reactions: Ken g6

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
If this washout holds, it might prove to be a bottom. This is what you want to see - capitulation.

If not, there is no bottom.

Sell.
 
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