***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Mnuchin calling the CEO of JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Citibank on Sunday while on vacation in Cabo is the reason why we're plunging. Mnuchin claims he called them to check for bank liquidity levels and to make sure it was ample.

You want to start a panic? This is how you start panic and bank run. Who calls bank CEOs on Sunday before Christmas to ask about bank liquidity if everything is ok and then says don't worry, everything is fine, I just checked? That's totally amateur hour and of course people will now freak out. Mnuchin just made Baghdad Bob very proud. "Don't worry, everything is fine. No need to panic!" He who panics first panics best. Mnuchin and Trump is supposed to meet with Plunge Protection Team today. You can bet the market will now test the PPT.

"Only the best people".
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,803
29,553
146
Early this year I was a bit disheartened that because I bought a house this year, I would be unable to put the type of money into the markets that I usually do (at least certainly not as early in the year). Now, though, boy am I glad. Happy to be spooling up to buy now...ish.

well, yeah. But aren't you a bit concerned that the housing market is going to drop 5-10% on you this year? I am!
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,076
136
well, yeah. But aren't you a bit concerned that the housing market is going to drop 5-10% on you this year? I am!
I don't plan on selling any time in the near, or intermediate, future. Fortunately. We also got really lucky with some very motivated sellers.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Shortened trading day and many traders out (but the high speed computers are working overtime) - down 250 so far. The volume Friday was the heaviest of the year which shows how much this market wants to drop.

Dow into 21,xxx territory (400+ point drop). S&P 500 down 19.5% from high....another 1/2 % on the close and the S&P will join the Nasdaq and several other markets in a bear market.
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
I don't have a problem holding, but when the h3ll to buy i'm not very good at.

If you have a long term horizon, then anytime is good. That said, I would wait til there is some conviction buying. They only conviction now is down.

People are selling at any price at this point and the weak hands are folding. Unless the recession truly comes, prices are a good deal right now. All my extra money is going into the market Soon.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
prices are a good deal right now.

Not really. Still way overpriced. Kind of feel like the time to sell was a couple days ago however.

Until (Unless?) the Fed says they won't raise rates anymore, the market is headed downward until it actually hits historical norms on valuations.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
Not really. Still way overpriced. Kind of feel like the time to sell was a couple days ago however.

Until (Unless?) the Fed says they won't raise rates anymore, the market is headed downward until it actually hits historical norms on valuations.

The S&P is already below the 10 year average on evaluations and that was before the drop today.

S&P now in a bear market. Worst Christmas Eve on record.
 
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njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
The economy should be able to continue to function and grow with 3-4% rates. What I do have major doubts on is what the SP500 valuation should be under those circumstances. We are going to have flush out all of those who can't hack it unless they're being printed free money.

I'm guessing we skip a hike in Q1 to allow the market to stabilize and maybe even rally a bit, before another comes in Q2.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
I should add that you shouldn't assume a recession is coming, however, unless companies use the selloff as an excuse to start laying off people.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
I should add that you shouldn't assume a recession is coming, however, unless companies use the selloff as an excuse to start laying off people.

Like I said for some time now and seems to be picking up steam - All of this recession talk, down markets, etc. becomes self fulfilling. Of course it may not happen but the Fed doesn't have much dry powder to work with in pulling us out and the government has already shot it's load on tax cuts to the top that didn't trickle down (dumped into the stock market and didn't help much).
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
how are the stock sectors doing after the xmas eve massacre?
link?
(my google failed)
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Like I said for some time now and seems to be picking up steam - All of this recession talk, down markets, etc. becomes self fulfilling.

Not entirely disagreeing, but I don't think people are going to stop spending unless they start losing their jobs. A lot of that is because people are just putting it on their credit cards; and as long as they can make the payment they are not going to change.

I would not be surprised if things unravel however.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Not entirely disagreeing, but I don't think people are going to stop spending unless they start losing their jobs. A lot of that is because people are just putting it on their credit cards; and as long as they can make the payment they are not going to change.

I would not be surprised if things unravel however.

Thats the thing.

Even though we are in a VERY healthy economy, with relatively low interest rates (when compared to the old norms) and all time low unemployment - the extended stock market decline based on lowered profit expectations could wind up being a "self fulfilling prophecy".

When hundreds of millions of people feel "poorer" because their 401k's take a big hit, they tend to spend less which works its way into the economy.

Less factory orders, less economic activity, lower profits, lower stock prices and again, less spending. Its a downward spiral which may lead to job losses.

Hopefully bargain hunters will start buying soon to help stabilize prices.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Thats the thing.

Even though we are in a VERY healthy economy, with relatively low interest rates (when compared to the old norms) and all time low unemployment - the extended stock market decline based on lowered profit expectations could wind up being a "self fulfilling prophecy".

When hundreds of millions of people feel "poorer" because their 401k's take a big hit, they tend to spend less which works its way into the economy.

Less factory orders, less economic activity, lower profits, lower stock prices and again, less spending. Its a downward spiral which may lead to job losses.

Hopefully bargain hunters will start buying soon to help stabilize prices.

The stock market downs are based entirely on global economic fear mongering is really what it boils down to.

Americans will continue to buy their shit like the money is burning a hole in their pocket.

The current situation can simply be summed up with China, Saudi Arabia, and oil glut.

I honestly doubt the majority of people bat an eye at their 401k. Hell, I'm willing to bet they don't even read their QUARTERLY statements let alone daily activities.
 
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