***Official*** 2018 Stock Market Thread

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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
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https://www.tesla.com/blog/taking-tesla-private?redirect=no

Elon Musk letter to his employees today.

Taking Tesla Private
August 7, 2018
The following email was sent to Tesla employees today:

Earlier today, I announced that I’m considering taking Tesla private at a price of $420/share. I wanted to let you know my rationale for this, and why I think this is the best path forward.

First, a final decision has not yet been made, but the reason for doing this is all about creating the environment for Tesla to operate best. As a public company, we are subject to wild swings in our stock price that can be a major distraction for everyone working at Tesla, all of whom are shareholders. Being public also subjects us to the quarterly earnings cycle that puts enormous pressure on Tesla to make decisions that may be right for a given quarter, but not necessarily right for the long-term. Finally, as the most shorted stock in the history of the stock market, being public means that there are large numbers of people who have the incentive to attack the company.

I fundamentally believe that we are at our best when everyone is focused on executing, when we can remain focused on our long-term mission, and when there are not perverse incentives for people to try to harm what we’re all trying to achieve.

This is especially true for a company like Tesla that has a long-term, forward-looking mission. SpaceX is a perfect example: it is far more operationally efficient, and that is largely due to the fact that it is privately held. This is not to say that it will make sense for Tesla to be private over the long-term. In the future, once Tesla enters a phase of slower, more predictable growth, it will likely make sense to return to the public markets.

Here’s what I envision being private would mean for all shareholders, including all of our employees.

First, I would like to structure this so that all shareholders have a choice. Either they can stay investors in a private Tesla or they can be bought out at $420 per share, which is a 20% premium over the stock price following our Q2 earnings call (which had already increased by 16%). My hope is for all shareholders to remain, but if they prefer to be bought out, then this would enable that to happen at a nice premium.

Second, my intention is for all Tesla employees to remain shareholders of the company, just as is the case at SpaceX. If we were to go private, employees would still be able to periodically sell their shares and exercise their options. This would enable you to still share in the growing value of the company that you have all worked so hard to build over time.

Third, the intention is not to merge SpaceX and Tesla. They would continue to have separate ownership and governance structures. However, the structure envisioned for Tesla is similar in many ways to the SpaceX structure: external shareholders and employee shareholders have an opportunity to sell or buy approximately every six months.

Finally, this has nothing to do with accumulating control for myself. I own about 20% of the company now, and I don’t envision that being substantially different after any deal is completed.

Basically, I’m trying to accomplish an outcome where Tesla can operate at its best, free from as much distraction and short-term thinking as possible, and where there is as little change for all of our investors, including all of our employees, as possible.

This proposal to go private would ultimately be finalized through a vote of our shareholders. If the process ends the way I expect it will, a private Tesla would ultimately be an enormous opportunity for all of us. Either way, the future is very bright and we’ll keep fighting to achieve our mission.

Thanks,
Elon
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Once you get above a certain number of shareholders you have to report like a public company even if you are private. And he hasn't stated where the funding would come from... kind of think Musk is full of shit and this is one of his schemes to fight the shorts.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Once you get above a certain number of shareholders you have to report like a public company even if you are private. And he hasn't stated where the funding would come from... kind of think Musk is full of shit and this is one of his schemes to fight the shorts.
He just screwed the shorts hard. Nearly 30% of the Tesla float is short. And Musk just locked in the losses for the shorts. Shorts will now have to bend over and take it without any lube because there's now zero chance for them to drop the stock price and get out of their short position. They're fucked and any unrealized paper loss will turn into actual full loss as they will be forced to buy and realize the loss. I can't say I will shed any tears for them, especially Chanos and Einhorn.

The only people full of shit are the shorts and all the Tesla haters. The level of stupidity and hatred spewed are almost comical and eerie similar to Apple bashing in the early days. Musk is not stupid and he wouldn't have tweeted what he did today if he didn't have the funding lined up. He said in his tweet the funding is secured. There are so many dumb people who don't understand Musk can get the money if he really needs it. Look at the news today Saudis approached Musk and asked Musk to issue new shares so they could invest and buy in Tesla. Musk turned them down so Saudis used JP Morgan to buy stakes in the secondary market 3-5% of Tesla or like $2-3 billion. This is the same JP Morgan that has $195 price target on Tesla. Now it makes perfect sense why JP Morgan kept bashing Tesla. They were trying to lower the price for Saudi to buy into cheap.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
So...I don't see how this can be construed as anything but stock manipulation. He states it right in his letter that 'a final decision has not been made'. I'm sorry but this is SEVERELY irresponsible, funding available or not. It is illegal.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
So...I don't see how this can be construed as anything but stock manipulation. He states it right in his letter that 'a final decision has not been made'. I'm sorry but this is SEVERELY irresponsible, funding available or not. It is illegal.
Stock manipulation? wtf? The final decision is depended on the shareholders vote. The proposal to take Tesla private has to pass shareholders vote. That's all. If enough shareholders vote yes, it's done deal. Remember Musk owns ~20% of the shares.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
Stock manipulation? wtf? The final decision is depended on the shareholders vote. The proposal to take Tesla private has to pass shareholders vote. That's all. If enough shareholders vote yes, it's done deal. Remember Musk owns ~20% of the shares.

It's all about timing and intent. It doesn't matter that he went through with it or what the actual outcome of the vote is.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
It's all about timing and intent. It doesn't matter that he went through with it or what the actual outcome of the vote is.
Say what? Is this your first rodeo? If the shareholders approve the vote to go private, Tesla is 100% going private. There's no if or buts. That's what Elon wants and there will soon be a vote. I've been through couple public to private buyouts but this is the first time I'm going to be given the option to convert from public to private shares and not be forced to sell at the buyout price.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
It's all about timing and intent. It doesn't matter that he went through with it or what the actual outcome of the vote is.

Hogwash. Musk is not going to sell shares, he is lining up partners to buy out the public shares at a fair price. That is not manipulation because his only benefit is long term and he may never sell shares.

Manipulation would be a CEO pumping up shares before the next earnings report, DUMPING some or all holdings and letting the stock come back to Earth close to or after earnings. Many a CEO has gone to jail or been sued for that.

Speaking of lawsuits, the vulture law firms will strike like they do all buyouts or go private deals, claiming the price was not fair or the company was not shopped around more. All they want is a handout.
 
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ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
Firstly, I am in no way talking about the stock holders. I'm talking about how it was revealed in that 'mulling it over' tone. However, I've done some research and this isn't a precedent. Netflix also did something similar and they didn't go after them. So apparently creating large shifts in markets due to flight of fancy tweets is the new norm. Thank Trump.

Also, for clarity, I don't have any money in the company.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Also, Tesla is not the biggest short in history. Just to name one off hand is Sears Holdings which at one point had a 70% short ratio:

https://www.benzinga.com/general/education/17/02/9028688/why-short-selling-is-a-dangerous-game-sears

According to shortsqueeze.com, Sears currently has a huge short percent of float of 71.3 percent.


Another that comes to mind is (was) Dry Ships, exceeding 80%. I remember people crying how $1000 turned to $15 after multiple reverse splits in DRYS stock as the market cap fell from billions to a few million. It has since recovered to $500MM.
 
Nov 8, 2012
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Meh, I bought my few Tesla stocks @ 250, definitely some of my big wins next to CMG. If I actually have to sell @ $420 I wouldn't cry too much considering it's already overvalued IMO.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Meh, I bought my few Tesla stocks @ 250, definitely some of my big wins next to CMG. If I actually have to sell @ $420 I wouldn't cry too much considering it's already overvalued IMO.
I'm happy and disappointed at the same time. I'm happy because I have way more than the new Tesla Roadster money in the stock and made more than new Model 3 profit in span of couple of months. But I'm sad because Tesla is just starting to succeed and really about to grow. And I mean grow big. But now they will likely do it under as a private company. Musk is promising existing shareholders will have the option to take stake in the private company but I don't know how that will work. My guess is the value won't increase as fast as a private company. Musk says he will likely bring Tesla back as a public company in the future once the growth slows and stabilizes but that could be 5-10 years down the line and at what value? In my mind, there's no doubt Tesla will be $500 billion plus company in 10 years or less if it stays public. As a private company, it's going to be harder to judge the proper value and liquidity of the shares will be an issue. But I'm hanging tight. $420 is peanuts with what Tesla will ultimately be worth in the future.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
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I'm happy and disappointed at the same time. I'm happy because I have way more than the new Tesla Roadster money in the stock and made more than new Model 3 profit in span of couple of months. But I'm sad because Tesla is just starting to succeed and really about to grow. And I mean grow big. But now they will likely do it under as a private company. Musk is promising existing shareholders will have the option to take stake in the private company but I don't know how that will work. My guess is the value won't increase as fast as a private company. Musk says he will likely bring Tesla back as a public company in the future once the growth slows and stabilizes but that could be 5-10 years down the line and at what value? In my mind, there's no doubt Tesla will be $500 billion plus company in 10 years or less if it stays public. As a private company, it's going to be harder to judge the proper value and liquidity of the shares will be an issue. But I'm hanging tight. $420 is peanuts with what Tesla will ultimately be worth in the future.

Whats the point though? I really think all of this is just a bunch of BS. He's pretty close to Trump in that he just likes media spotlight.

I think he just gets pissy having to answer shareholder meetings and stuff. Ultimately, I don't think taking the company private would be best for them...
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
$420 is nothing. Tesla is far more valuable than that. Which is why I won't sell at $420 if Musk really does take Tesla private. .

Tesla is a perfect example of why you never short based on valuation. The big problem with Tesla is that there are simply no metrics to use to value Tesla. If you use FCF, you would price the stock at $0 because it burns through 750 million per quarter in cash. If you price it at PE, it doesn't make any money so again $0. Pricing it on Forward P/E makes the most sense, but figuring out future earnings has been a challenge. Pricing Tesla at $420 means that based on valuation (typically a 10 P/E for Toyota, Ford and Nissan), means the Elon or his backers believes he can make $42/share in future earnings if he ever decides to go public again.

Anyway congrats on this one. You definitely gained big here if you sell. I don't quite understand how Elon will create a fund for people to decide to stay with the company when it goes private. Perhaps it would be a MLP? If it is, then sell! K-1s are so annoying.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
So it appears that Tesla's board is serious about going private; while Musk's "Funding Secured" is a load of crap. We'll have to see if there actually is someone out there willing to blow 60 billion plus assume the debt.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
So it appears that Tesla's board is serious about going private; while Musk's "Funding Secured" is a load of crap. We'll have to see if there actually is someone out there willing to blow 60 billion plus assume the debt.
Of course this is serious and Tesla's board is going to meet to go over the offer. That's their job. As for Musk's "Funding Secured" is a load of crap statement, do you have any proof? Or are you talking out of your ass? If you think Musk tweeted what he did without having a clue where he was going to get funding, you're clueless and dumb as all the shorts. It's been proven time and time again, never bet against Elon. Especially when stakes are this high. Think with your head instead of your ass. Why would he risk going to jail if he didn't have the funding or was very sure he could get it?

So it WAS a bluff? This should be interesting....
It wasn't a bluff. The doubters will be proven wrong once again.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
Of course this is serious and Tesla's board is going to meet to go over the offer. That's their job. As for Musk's "Funding Secured" is a load of crap statement, do you have any proof? Or are you talking out of your ass? If you think Musk tweeted what he did without having a clue where he was going to get funding, you're clueless and dumb as all the shorts. It's been proven time and time again, never bet against Elon. Especially when stakes are this high. Think with your head instead of your ass. Why would he risk going to jail if he didn't have the funding or was very sure he could get it?


It wasn't a bluff. The doubters will be proven wrong once again.

I hope you are right, but can you can it with the over emphantic fanboyisms? You're just coming off as another stocktwits bull dick, not as someone who actually knows what they are talking about.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
TSLA stock is starting to nose dive over doubts about Elons ability to raise buyout cash

Will it go back to $299 or less?*

Scary times ahead.

(I am neither long nor short the stock, )
 
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Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
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TSLA stock is starting to nose dive over doubts about Elons ability to raise buyout cash

Will it go back to $299 or less?*

Scary times ahead.

(I am neither long nor short the stock, )

I bought @ 275 like... less than 3 months ago. Shit goes up and down with the tide.

I hope it falls over this because I know it will be right back up shortly after. I will buy, no question - if it actually has a significant drop. At it's price right now though? Won't touch it.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I bought @ 275 like... less than 30 minutes ago. Shit goes up and down with the tide.

I hope it falls over this because I know it will be right back up shortly after. I will buy, no question - if it actually has a significant drop. At it's price right now though? Won't touch it.
Are you sure you bought the right stock? Because I don't see $275 print anywhere afterhours trading. The lowest print I see afterhours is $353.67 and that occurred at 4:10 pm. And during regular hours, the low was $346.

As for the this private deal, you either believe Elon or you don't. If you think Elon is lying, you would be crazy to hold this stock since Elon will go to jail. If Elon is telling the truth and Tesla goes private, you'll get close to 20% return by holding. Basically the shorts are betting Elon went all crazy and risked going to jail and completely ruining his reputation so he could juice the stock temporary for a day or two. For what? It's not like he's going to sell his shares.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
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Are you sure you bought the right stock? Because I don't see $275 print anywhere afterhours trading. The lowest print I see afterhours is $353.67 and that occurred at 4:10 pm. And during regular hours, the low was $346.

As for the this private deal, you either believe Elon or you don't. If you think Elon is lying, you would be crazy to hold this stock since Elon will go to jail. If Elon is telling the truth and Tesla goes private, you'll get close to 20% return by holding. Basically the shorts are betting Elon went all crazy and risked going to jail and completely ruining his reputation so he could juice the stock temporary for a day or two. For what? It's not like he's going to sell his shares.

Holy fuck, not sure what I was smoking - I meant to say ~3 months ago.

Forgive me for that blooper....
 
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