Tesla at $3k share might sound crazy today but if Tesla keeps executing and things go well, it can easily happen. In fact, Elon Musk entire compensation package depends on Tesla hitting $650 billion market cap in the next 10 years. He gets $65 billion if they do. He gets nothing if Tesla is not at least $100 billion.
What will be the worth of Tesla energy in 10 years? I bet Tesla energy will be just as big as Tesla auto. What's the worth of possible fully autonomous driving and replacing Uber and Lyft? What's the worth of having worldwide Supercharger network replacing gas stations? What's the worth of owning worldwide auto service stations and body shops for repairs and keeping the new car, used car, and repair/service profits? What's the worth of not having dealer network and keeping the 3-5% dealers typically make on auto sales? What's the worth of selling 10 million electric cars a year direct at 25-30% margin?
Not all legacy automakers will go out of business. But anytime there's disruptive tech and paradigm change, there will be major casualties. What's the legacy automakers are going to do with all those ICE motor factories they currently have? Some will be switched to make electric motors but they don't need all those factories for that. So what's going to happen to those excess factories when their ICE cars sales drop? Legacy automakers have 100 years worth of experience building ICE cars. But batteries, electric motors, and computers, software, and programming are new ballgame. Tesla will not be the only company selling electric cars in the next 15-20 years. There's no way single company can meet the worldwide demand when the switch to electric happens. There will be other companies too. Probably couple legacy automakers will make the successful switch. Which ones, I don't know. But too many will be entrenched in the old ways and not adapt fast enough and die. And new auto companies from China will take their place. China will copy, learn, and steal as much as they can from Tesla. I expect China to be world leader in electric and Tesla like Apple today fighting all these Chinese Android phone makers.