***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

[s0me0nesmind1]

Jesus... fuck.... How the fuck is Tesla up to $330. That thing is a cult...

In the last WEEK it is up $70, in the last month up $105

 

[jpiniero]

Jesus... fuck.... How the fuck is Tesla up to $330. That thing is a cult...

In the last WEEK it is up $70, in the last month up $105

Accounting Fraud?

 

[ponyo]

Jesus... fuck.... How the fuck is Tesla up to $330. That thing is a cult...

In the last WEEK it is up $70, in the last month up $105

Short squeeze. Over 26% of TSLA float was short going into 3rd quarter earnings. The bloody scream and burnt smell you're smelling is stupid shorts roasting in fire.

Tesla is going to be the next Apple and Amazon and Elon will be the richest person in the world. Looking back it will be plainly obvious and people will wonder how they missed it.

 

[jpiniero]

Tesla is going to be the next Apple and Amazon and Elon will be the richest person in the world. Looking back it will be plainly obvious and people will wonder how they missed it.

Revenue was down YoY (6.3B versus 6.8B).

The car business is awful, and millennials hate cars so there isn't much of a future for any of them. I would not want to own stock of any car company.

 

[zinfamous]

Revenue was down YoY (6.3B versus 6.8B).

The car business is awful, and millennials hate cars so there isn't much of a future for any of them. I would not want to own stock of any car company.

Tesla doesn't just make cars though...and to me their true value is not in the cars they build but their position with battery and, soon, solar tech.

 

[ponyo]

Revenue was down YoY (6.3B versus 6.8B).

The car business is awful, and millennials hate cars so there isn't much of a future for any of them. I would not want to own stock of any car company.

Revenue was down YoY quarter because Tesla sold lot more cheaper Model 3 this quarter than this time last year. 3rd quarter last year, Tesla only sold long range rwd, awd, and performance Model 3. There was no cheaper short range Model 3. They sold crap load of Model 3 Performance Q3 last year at close to $80k each. This year Q3, Tesla sold crap ton of Model 3 SR+ which is $39k car. And Tesla lowered the prices on all their cars this year by huge amount, especially the higher price Model S, X, and Model 3 Performance.

Tesla also sold like 10k fewer S and S models which also lowered the ASP. And Tesla didn't offer lease on Model 3 Q3 last year. Q3 this year, Tesla leased 6,498 Model 3. And because of accounting rules, Tesla can't fully realize full sales price on lease vehicles at the time of sale. So that also lowered the revenue. Revenue down YoY quarter argument is super weak one and bears grasping at straws. The stupid Tesla shorts got their face ripped off the past two days after Wednesday Q3 earnings report. If they're too stupid to realize why Q3 revenue was down YoY, then they deserved to get their face ripped off. But their pain is not going to end here. Shorts are going to get their arms and legs chopped off before this is all over.

As for car business being awful, it will be awful going forward for legacy ICE automakers. Most will go bankrupt due to Tesla and Chinese EV. Millennials don't hate cars. They hate ICE cars. They love Tesla. And there won't be much future for cars that's not EV and autonomous in the future. Tesla checks all the boxes and Tesla is going to dominate. You just watch.

Tesla doesn't just make cars though...and to me their true value is not in the cars they build but their position with battery and, soon, solar tech.

Tesla held conference call today after the market closed and revealed Version 3 of their solar roof tile. It's good listen.
https://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/solar-roof-conference-call-webcast

I just checked the solar tile prices on Tesla website and it's about 40% cheaper than before and cheaper than getting new regular roof + new solar panels. Tesla is going to ramp up production of the solar roof tiles and bundling it with Tesla Powerwalls. They're going to sell crap load of this in about a year or two. In about 5 years, I suspect Tesla energy will be just as big if not bigger than Tesla auto. Tesla is going to print money in couple of years. Guaranteed.

 

[turtile]

Revenue was down YoY (6.3B versus 6.8B).

The car business is awful, and millennials hate cars so there isn't much of a future for any of them. I would not want to own stock of any car company.

Once millenials move out of cities, they will all have cars. It's just that they currently don't have the need to justify one currently.

In my opinion, a long term investment in this industry requires self-driving tech and cars that are low maintenance. It's likely that self-driving cars will make car ownership unjustified for some people and thus raise the price of cars. In turn, making ownership more expensive.

Will Google license their tech like Android to car manufacturers? Who knows how this will turn out.

 

[zinfamous]

Tesla held conference call today after the market closed and revealed Version 3 of their solar roof tile. It's good listen.
https://ir.tesla.com/events/event-details/solar-roof-conference-call-webcast

I just checked the solar tile prices on Tesla website and it's about 40% cheaper than before and cheaper than getting new regular roof + new solar panels. Tesla is going to ramp up production of the solar roof tiles and bundling it with Tesla Powerwalls. They're going to sell crap load of this in about a year or two. In about 5 years, I suspect Tesla energy will be just as big if not bigger than Tesla auto. Tesla is going to print money in couple of years. Guaranteed.

That's awesome to hear. ...I do hope the process improves though (haven't watched your video yet), but from the couple of reports I've seen from actual owners of the tiles (I think maybe...a couple dozen at most right now? haha), the process is a bit of a nightmare--constant delays to get an estimator out there, original estimate was wrong, so needed another tech, first install was done wrong, ...and something like 8 months overall time for one of the customers. I think a lot of the delay though was because they just didn't have any inventory?

 

[JEDI]

since the s&p500 is within inches of its all time high, hopefully this means the 10% predicted drop will start

 

[FelixDeCat]

since the s&p500 is within inches of its all time high, hopefully this means the 10% predicted drop will start

Um no. Stocks are rallying now despite less than expected results - eg: Amazon.

I expect all time highs next week. The time to worry is *after* earnings season is over and we start to negotiate phase 2 of the China trade deal. Then you might get a pullback.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, you can forget about a rate cut for now.

 

[jpiniero]

Also, you can forget about a rate cut for now.

It's currently 93% for a cut.

 

[ponyo]

That's awesome to hear. ...I do hope the process improves though (haven't watched your video yet), but from the couple of reports I've seen from actual owners of the tiles (I think maybe...a couple dozen at most right now? haha), the process is a bit of a nightmare--constant delays to get an estimator out there, original estimate was wrong, so needed another tech, first install was done wrong, ...and something like 8 months overall time for one of the customers. I think a lot of the delay though was because they just didn't have any inventory?

V3 solar tiles sounds like it's the real deal and ready for prime time. V1 & V2 were Tesla R&D experiments and difficult to install. V3 should be lot simpler to install and you can get cost estimate instantly on Tesla website by plugging your address. And Tesla is working with regulators to have automatic permits which should eliminate much of the delays due to building permits. It sounds like Musk is real happy with V3. He compared V3 to being like Windows 3.1 and V1 & V2 to Windows before it.

It's still going to take couple months before Tesla can ramp and install 1,000 solar tile roofs per week. Since this is their first attempt at ramping and installing solar tile roofs, I expect similar production hell the Model 3 went through during its initial ramp up. But once they sort it out, I expect Tesla to ultimately get to 10,000 solar tile roof installs a week. And I expect Tesla to relentlessly cut costs and improve the solar tiles just like they do with their cars. There's no product or company with anything similar to solar tiles out there. All other companies only make solar panels which Tesla also makes. So Tesla is going to have monopoly on solar tiles until someone else comes along with something similar.

Tesla should do considerable solar business in California in 2020 and going forward since all new houses there require solar power. And I'm sure PG&E blackout is causing people who live there to consider solar with Tesla Powerwall as well.

In about 20 years, it's going to be silly for a homes not to have solar with battery storage in most parts of the country. And it's going to be silly to drive a car that's not electric. It might be silly for people to drive since I expect most cars will be fully autonomous as well. And I expect Tesla to be huge player in all of those things.

 

[FelixDeCat]

It's currently 93% for a cut.

The yield curve is no longer inverted.

Bonds / gold are pulling back so if the Fed wants to skip on Wednesday they can get away with it. If anything the market will fall temporarily intraday, Trump will rant on Twitter and scold the Fed decision.....then the selloff will be bought because everyone knows there is nothing wrong with the best economy in 50 years.

Of course, who knows what happens after that.

 

[jpiniero]

Of course, who knows what happens after that.

Again, the cuts are more about juicing up stock prices and nothing else. When the recession comes they will drop to 0 immediately.

I'm interested to see what they say after the cut. If they say no more cuts after this one, how the market will react.

 

[woodman1999]

Anybody have any thoughts on BYND? It releases excellent earnings, raises guidance, and has partnerships with a number of fast food joints. It's down 20% this morning and I am trying to understand why. Is it just because of the lockup ending? If so, are you looking at a large bounce tomorrow?

Personally, I'll never eat one, but a lot of people are buying into it, and not just in the U.S.

 

[jpiniero]

Anybody have any thoughts on BYND? It releases excellent earnings, raises guidance, and has partnerships with a number of fast food joints. It's down 20% this morning and I am trying to understand why. Is it just because of the lockup ending? If so, are you looking at a large bounce tomorrow?

I think they've come to the realization that while profitable, the valuation is too much. Possibly there might have been some hope that the numbers would have been even better, enough to keep the insiders from selling.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Again, the cuts are more about juicing up stock prices and nothing else. When the recession comes they will drop to 0 immediately.

I'm interested to see what they say after the cut. If they say no more cuts after this one, how the market will react.

The tail does not wag the dog. The market only reacts well to a good news which are good economic data and earnings. Rates play a role.

We need to start RAISING interest rates while the economy is good. That process is good to maintain economic strength. It kills off the weak and prepares us for the future.

Unfortunately we are addicted to the sub-normal rate environment created by the credit crises of 2008.

All things being equal, the prime rate should be 8.5% and home mortgages should be 10% in this economy.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anybody have any thoughts on BYND? It releases excellent earnings, raises guidance, and has partnerships with a number of fast food joints. It's down 20% this morning and I am trying to understand why. Is it just because of the lockup ending? If so, are you looking at a large bounce tomorrow?

Personally, I'll never eat one, but a lot of people are buying into it, and not just in the U.S.

I ate the Burger king impossible burger. It was ok, but it was missing the satisfying taste of real beef.

BYND is a cult stock. It can be any price.

 

[KB]

Anybody have any thoughts on BYND? It releases excellent earnings, raises guidance, and has partnerships with a number of fast food joints. It's down 20% this morning and I am trying to understand why. Is it just because of the lockup ending? If so, are you looking at a large bounce tomorrow?

Personally, I'll never eat one, but a lot of people are buying into it, and not just in the U.S.

The lockup had a big part in it.
I enjoyed my impossible burger and will order one again, but the business has a lot of competition coming out. Most people order the impossible burger once to try and don't order it again. Once the one-time tasters go away, the partnerships will too.

 

[jpiniero]

The Fed did indeed cut by a quarter point but is saying no more for now. We'll see how long that lasts.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Um no. Stocks are rallying now despite less than expected results - eg: Amazon.

I expect all time highs next week. The time to worry is *after* earnings season is over and we start to negotiate phase 2 of the China trade deal. Then you might get a pullback.

Gooooaaaal!!

All time highs reached. Earnings season is not over yet and the phase 1 trade deal should be signed soon. Baring anything extraordinary (or pure profit taking) we should continue to make new all time highs.

Its a great time to be an American.

 

[ponyo]

Anyone of you aware or following along Robinhood infinite margin cheat code discovered by WallStBet subforum on Reddit? I've been reading and following since end of last week and Robinhood still haven't patched the exploit and people are selling deep in the money covered calls to gain infinite margin. The guy who discovered the trick used $2k to margin like $58k in Apple put options day before earnings and blew up his account the next day. Couple people leveraged $4k into close to $1 million in options. Another guy used $15k and leveraged with Tesla stocks and calls for over $1 million leverage. Pretty crazy and funny stuff.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/drqaro

 

[zinfamous]

wow...that's uh, a problem no?

yet another SV-tech wizard "disrupter" platform leading to hilariously (criminal?) unforeseen consequences!

 

[ponyo]

wow...that's uh, a problem no?

yet another SV-tech wizard "disrupter" platform leading to hilariously (criminal?) unforeseen consequences!

If I had Robinhood account and I was young, foolish, and judgement proof I would try this. Actually I would open 2 accounts and simultaneously take opposite bets with calls on one account and puts on another account on a stock that's going to report earnings. And then cash out the account that wins and let the other account self destruct. And then move to a country that doesn't have extradition treaty with the US.