***Official*** 2019 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Ok so the January Effect week of buying will be coming to a close this week or next.

After that the market will be made up of buyers vs sellers probably flat to lower until 2/1/19.

Good time to sell calls.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
We have had a few straight days of gains - here is to hoping the volatility dies down a bit since trade talks have been going well....
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,583
2,946
136
Sometimes I think the market is like a drunk girl at a bar. If you tell her what she wants to hear, all that's left to do is slide home. Risk assets were definitely over valued. If you look at a long term chart of the Dow, it was virtually hyperbolic from about 2016 to 2018. That's never a good sign. But if you look at the trend line from 2009 til now, we're pretty much on the linear, upward slope we saw before 2016.

I still think we're headed for a recession but as I've said before, there don't seem to be any serious issues with the economy on a fundamental level. So any recession we do see shouldn't be dire enough to cause any serious investor to sh*t their pants.

 

AznAnarchy99

Lifer
Dec 6, 2004
14,705
117
106
Debating buying NFLX before tomorrow's earnings. I wanted to buy it back right before New Years but kept holding out for a small drop to my mental buy price. What a huge mistake that was.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Interesting...

NFLX announced quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, beating expectations by 25%...

Yet as of right now stock is down ~4-5% after hours.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Interesting...

NFLX announced quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, beating expectations by 25%...

Yet as of right now stock is down ~4-5% after hours.
Stock was up like 50% the past couple weeks. Stock is down less than $10 after hours after the report. I call that a win.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Holy Crap! Tesla got kicked in the nuts today.

I was tempted to buy the $317 puts intraday THIS MORNING for $5 each (30 mins after the open) but I thought the stock had fallen too much. They were expensive and risky because they expired today!

By the end of the day they TRIPLED in value and were worth $15 each.

If TSLA breaks $300....look out below!
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
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So folks, I could use a little advice based on what everyone here is feeling. Personally, I love it when the stock market falls. It's what tells me it's the perfect time to buy.

However, for once, I can honestly look at the losses and say "This might not be the time inwhich the knife has hit the floor"... meaning more might be coming. Statistically, were still vastly overvalued, no?

Basically, I finally have some significant funds in my HSA - and I'm also ready to invest in my IRA for the year - however, I want to buy at the low end. What is everyone's general feeling? Have we hit the low point of the year or is there still a real recession to come?
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
So folks, I could use a little advice based on what everyone here is feeling. Personally, I love it when the stock market falls. It's what tells me it's the perfect time to buy.

However, for once, I can honestly look at the losses and say "This might not be the time inwhich the knife has hit the floor"... meaning more might be coming. Statistically, were still vastly overvalued, no?

Basically, I finally have some significant funds in my HSA - and I'm also ready to invest in my IRA for the year - however, I want to buy at the low end. What is everyone's general feeling? Have we hit the low point of the year or is there still a real recession to come?

I am sure that the right answer will be available for you after it happens, which is all it can ever be.

Just put money in as you normally do and don't bother trying to time things. It basically never works, and when it does, it is only because of dumb luck. Chances are, you put money in now, you really only miss a couple of percentage points of growth from the true bottom.
 

DietDrThunder

Platinum Member
Apr 6, 2001
2,262
326
126
Debating buying NFLX before tomorrow's earnings. I wanted to buy it back right before New Years but kept holding out for a small drop to my mental buy price. What a huge mistake that was.
I've got 700 shares I'll sell you. I just don't see how all of Netflix buying original content is going to work in the long run if they don't start putting quality over quantity.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
I've got 700 shares I'll sell you. I just don't see how all of Netflix buying original content is going to work in the long run if they don't start putting quality over quantity.

Quantity is how Netflix works. Technically it isn't the same business model as say HBO has been for the last 30 years. Netflix is 1 price for everything. HBO just represents one video in the Netflix lineup (for example). It is up to the users to decide what is quality - and that is strongly a personal thing. As long as they aren't chock full of only movies by The Asylum company, they should be just fine. I do think however they may be overstepping the money they are throwing at things. I think their old model was much more sustainable, at least until every channel decided it needed it's own streaming company.
 

DietDrThunder

Platinum Member
Apr 6, 2001
2,262
326
126
Quantity is how Netflix works. Technically it isn't the same business model as say HBO has been for the last 30 years. Netflix is 1 price for everything. HBO just represents one video in the Netflix lineup (for example). It is up to the users to decide what is quality - and that is strongly a personal thing. As long as they aren't chock full of only movies by The Asylum company, they should be just fine. I do think however they may be overstepping the money they are throwing at things. I think their old model was much more sustainable, at least until every channel decided it needed it's own streaming company.
That's the main reason I'll eventually (in the short run) sell the stock. It is almost getting as bad as Cable and Satellite TV with every channel deciding it needs its own streaming service (like Disney and CBS all access), eventually us cord cutters will be back to paying what we did before for content. The content I've seen lately isn't worth watching. Did you try and watch the Netflix Original Movie IO? It was so boring I eventually fast forwarded to the end, and it ended pretty much like I expected, which sucked.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
That's the main reason I'll eventually (in the short run) sell the stock. It is almost getting as bad as Cable and Satellite TV with every channel deciding it needs its own streaming service (like Disney and CBS all access), eventually us cord cutters will be back to paying what we did before for content. The content I've seen lately isn't worth watching. Did you try and watch the Netflix Original Movie IO? It was so boring I eventually fast forwarded to the end, and it ended pretty much like I expected, which sucked.

Yeah I don't disagree - which is kinda why I'm worried about TSLA as well.

Similarly, I think both are examples where they were first to market (one pushing electric cars obviously, and the other pushing a streaming service). The problem is, the big established dogs are finally starting to react and what was once a wide open market for Netflix / Tesla is about to get MUCH more competitive.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
PCG - a bankrupt utility went up 75% yesterday on a judges ruling regarding liability over fires - and some idiots bought $500,000 in call options just before the news was announced.

They made close to $9MM in instant profit using what might have been inside information.

I guess no one told them the SEC investigates sh*t like that for violations of the insider trading sanctions act?

Derp!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3425913-timely-trade-pg-and-e-options-reaps-millions-paper-profit
 

overst33r

Diamond Member
Oct 3, 2004
5,762
12
81
PCG - a bankrupt utility went up 75% yesterday on a judges ruling regarding liability over fires - and some idiots bought $500,000 in call options just before the news was announced.

They made close to $9MM in instant profit using what might have been inside information.

I guess no one told them the SEC investigates sh*t like that for violations of the insider trading sanctions act?

Derp!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3425913-timely-trade-pg-and-e-options-reaps-millions-paper-profit
It's technically the best time to committ this type of fraud. Apparently most of the SEC is on furlough, nobody's at the wheel.
Can't blame them for trying to pull a fast one.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
PCG - a bankrupt utility went up 75% yesterday on a judges ruling regarding liability over fires - and some idiots bought $500,000 in call options just before the news was announced.

They made close to $9MM in instant profit using what might have been inside information.

I guess no one told them the SEC investigates sh*t like that for violations of the insider trading sanctions act?

Derp!

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3425913-timely-trade-pg-and-e-options-reaps-millions-paper-profit

It always bewilders me why people try insider trading. Like... I can understand insider trading for a 5% difference... but anything more than 20% or so difference is going to get a lot of scrutiny and overlook of anything that occurred in the days before the big news.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
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So what is ATOT buying these days that you feel will have substantial growth in the coming year or so?

Chipotle (CMG) and AMD were my best buys by far, but sadly I don't think either are going to grow substantially in the next few months.
 
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