Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Dont worry, our government will come to the oil companies rescue. No company is allowed to fail these days. Not cruise lines. Not airlines. Not anybody.

Airlines will be saved. No way the government will allow all the airlines to fail. Buffett owns the airlines. He won't save the airlines himself but he'll definitely work behind the scenes to make sure his airline investments won't fail if they get in trouble.

Cruise lines can fail. Government won't care. Banks won't fail. Again, too important. Oil companies? They're fine. Only morons think oil companies are in trouble right now. Longterm, they're in trouble because of Tesla but that's another topic.

 

[ponyo]

leveraged oil

So tell us the instrument.

 

[FelixDeCat]

STOCK Futures looking very ugly, but that of course could change. Gold about to top $1700 any moment now, only $4 away from highs not seen in a decade.

Edit: I hope they dont over do this, now down almost 5%. It could prompt stupid sh*t like market halts or outright holidays.

Market volatility regulations

​

Circuit breakers Circuit-breaker points represent the thresholds at which trading is halted market-wide for single-day declines in the S&P 500 Index. Circuit breakers halt trading on the nation's stock markets during dramatic drops and are set at 7%, 13%, and 20% of the closing price for the previous day. The circuit breakers are calculated daily. Level 1 halt (7%) Trading will halt for 15 minutes if drop occurs before 3:25 p.m. At or after 3:25 p.m.—trading shall continue, unless there is a Level 3 halt. Level 2 halt (13%) Trading will halt for 15 minutes if drop occurs before 3:25 p.m. At or after 3:25 p.m.—trading shall continue, unless there is a Level 3 halt. Level 3 halt (20%) At any time during the trading day—trading shall halt for the remainder of the trading day.

 

[FelixDeCat]

OIL futures experiencing HORRIFIC crash - off 20% and falling. Expect trading curbs to kick in.

 

[brianmanahan]

i wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow's drop sets a record

 

[jpiniero]

Interesting, I thought it was the circuit breaker was based upon the opening price, not based upon the ending price the previous day.

Longterm, they're in trouble because of Tesla but that's another topic.

Oil is still useful as a heat generation option so I doubt it will go away completely, even though it is far less popular now than in the past. Yes cars is where most of the demand is. But you still have to generate the electricity for electric cars with something...

 

[jpiniero]

.25-.50 now a heavy favorite for March. I wonder if the Fed will just get it over with and go to zero.

 

[Svnla]

Shale oil and gas companies around here will be in a world of serious hurting. Local and state government budgets will have huge holes to fill from expecting revenue streams vs. soon to be shortfalls.

 

[ponyo]

Interesting, I thought it was the circuit breaker was based upon the opening price, not based upon the ending price the previous day.



Oil is still useful as a heat generation option so I doubt it will go away completely, even though it is far less popular now than in the past. Yes cars is where most of the demand is. But you still have to generate the electricity for electric cars with something...

Future power generation is solar roof bundled with batteries to store the energy. It's going to completely alter how we view and design power utilities. Tesla energy will be the world's largest utility. Tesla cars could act as Powerwall but I don't know if that's what Tesla wants. They could easily enable that option in the future once they release their million mile batteries.

In the future, dumb roofs are going to be uncommon as house not having central air. The whole power industry is changing before your eyes if you choose to look forward. Tesla Megapacks is game changer for power utilities and going to replace most of the gas peaker plants in the future.
https://electrek.co/2019/11/14/tesl-megapack-project-replace-gas-peaker-plant/

 

[JEDI]

OIL futures experiencing HORRIFIC crash - off 20% and falling. Expect trading curbs to kick in.

and what a cliff it is.
oil premarket opened at $30.65/barrel! (it closed at $41/barrel.)
but there's lots of time between premarket and market open.

if it holds, I am printing 6figure profits!!!

edit:
oil recovering slowly. it's at $33/barrel now 2hrs after premarket open

 

[FelixDeCat]

The problem with zero or negative rates is that it also kills the banking industry margins.

 

[JEDI]

My short term prediction:
1) oil will test the multi-year low of $26/barrel when gas at the pump was $0.99/gallon. (might not happen now with all the new gas taxes levied by states )

2) Saudi's are bound by the supply cut agreement till the end of March.
they are currently pumping 9.7M barrels/day.
Beginning of April, they will ramp up to 12M barrels/day almost immediately.

3) If Russia doesn't come back to the OPEC+ table by March 31, oil will fall below that $26 support line to the teens.


god, I wished I knew options.
1 contract = 100 shares.
my profits would be multiplied 100x?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Millions of people in quarantine and now in lock down in northern Italy. Permission needed to travel. All major gatherings, movie theatres closed. Movement restricted, military deployed. Weddings, funerals, etc., all banned.

 

[brianmanahan]

if i survive this, it'll at least be a memorable event to tell nieces/nephews about

 

[JEDI]

if i survive this, it'll at least be a memorable event to tell nieces/nephews about

why wouldn't you survive the corona virus?
you're old or have a compromised immune system?

 

[brianmanahan]

why wouldn't you survive the corona virus?
you're old or have a compromised immune system?

i have had a bunch of health problems in the past year and doctors can't figure it out

including chest pain, high blood pressure, painful breathing at times

they say everything looks fine, but still

i think that if i get this it is not going to go well for me

 

[FelixDeCat]

i have had a bunch of health problems in the past year and doctors can't figure it out

including chest pain, high blood pressure, painful breathing at times

they say everything looks fine, but still

i think that if i get this it is not going to go well for me

A lot of it might have to do with stress. That one gets me good! I had terrible indigestion on Friday, stomach and chest pain was unbearable. I went out to eat with my brother and could barely finish my meal. Took some Bayer and went to bed early.

I think I may need to stop watching the stock market, that may help with the stress.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

i have had a bunch of health problems in the past year and doctors can't figure it out

including chest pain, high blood pressure, painful breathing at times

they say everything looks fine, but still

i think that if i get this it is not going to go well for me

But... but... Doctors have everything in the human brain figured out, right?

 

[dasherHampton]

Yikes. I guess maybe it'll take a little longer than expected for my dividend stocks to recover.

 

[brianmanahan]

A lot of it might have to do with stress. That one gets me good! I had terrible indigestion on Friday, stomach and chest pain was unbearable. I went out to eat with my brother and could barely finish my meal. Took some Bayer and went to bed early.

I think I may need to stop watching the stock market, that may help with the stress.

yeah stress is awful, my job doesn't help and i want to retire by 45 (if i can make it that long)

 

[brianmanahan]

But... but... Doctors have everything in the human brain figured out, right?

if they do, they aren't letting on

 

[JEDI]

My short term prediction:
1) oil will test the multi-year low of $26/barrel when gas at the pump was $0.99/gallon. (might not happen now with all the new gas taxes levied by states )

whoa.. premarket oil now at $27 already?! didn't think it would reach this point till nearer the end of the month over built up angst on whether Russia will re-join Opec+ or not.

at this rate, maybe oil will hit the teens even before Saudi gets released from their supply cut agreement at the end of the month.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ok, so USOU, UWTI, WTIU are the 3x LONG OIL ETFs. Now, OIL is down 33% today, so theoretically, these ETFs should go to ZERO.

WTID, DWTI and USOD are the 3X SHORT OIL ETFs. These should be up 100% today.

I know these things have clauses where if the fund manager thinks an ETF has collapsed and is nonfunctional, they can halt trading and cash out it for whatever they think is fair, never to trade again.

 

[JEDI]

Ok, so USOU, UWTI, WTIU are the 3x LONG OIL ETFs. Now, OIL is down 33% today, so theoretically, these ETFs should go to ZERO.

WTID, DWTI and USOD are the 3X SHORT OIL ETFs. These should be up 100% today.

I know these things have clauses where if the fund manager thinks an ETF has collapsed and is nonfunctional, they can halt trading and cash out it for whatever they think is fair, never to trade again.

don't know about going to 0.
every leveraged fund resets it's nav(?) at the beginning of trading day to match something but I forgot what.

by data points, I calc that if oil is at 27, then dwti should be at around $15.
not quite double.
you're right in that 33% decline x 3 should be 100% gain.
and also, if a leveraged short goes down multiple days in a row then there's a slight multiplicative benefit.
it should exceed double!!

we shall see when the market opens since no more premarket can take place tonight. (see below)

oh.. also, U.S. stock futures plunged 5% to hit their daily down limit and halt trading.

the sky is falling, unless you have a large short position.
or at least a large position in Bonds.
fortunately, I have both.

 

[dasherHampton]

It's good and fun on a message board, but in all seriousness:

A lot of retirees have been told over the past decade that oil was safe until at least 2030. It still probably is.

But this will be harsh awakening for folks who have no ability to recover. A nervous cup of coffee, to be sure.