Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

People are selling anything of value or have high beta. They went after palladium today which I thought about shorting couple days ago. Bitcoin is also taking a dump. And Netflix is finally taking a hit. People were hiding in that name along with Costco thinking the declines wouldn't be as severe. And of course, Tesla is getting hit as well.

Start making your shopping list. There are some great names going on sale. Personally, I rather bet on individual names than index on the rebound. I remember Apple lost 75% of value from the high at the worst in 2008. You guys already know which horse I'm going to bet on the future rebound.

 

[IronWing]

There's a pretty massive rally happening. How high can it go before it all crashes again tomorrow?

I wonder what triggered it?

 

[jpiniero]

Start making your shopping list. There are some great names going on sale. Personally, I rather bet on individual names than index on the rebound. I remember Apple lost 75% of value from the high at the worst in 2008. You guys already know which horse I'm going to bet on the future rebound.

If people are unemployed, the last thing they will be buying is expensive cars. I don't think the massic economic hit from shutting everything down is priced in at this point. We have a long way to go.

 

[jpiniero]

I wonder what triggered it?

The PPT?

 

[zinfamous]

Don't think it makes some sense to just put it in a money-market account until the storm dies down a bit?

Maybe I'm naively thinking this is just the beginning but.... It looks like were at just the beginning of this pandemic. Majority of people are still going to work, still going to grocery stores, still going out to eat (at least around me they are).

nah, like ponyo said, just stay the course with those. Every day from now on, (and from last week on), you're already "winning" with any retirement cash going into the market. It sounds like you are struggling to convince yourself that you can perfectly time the market.

you can't.

the contributions are really quite limited in the end, so it really isn't that much money compared to what you could throw to, say, buying 20k shares of TSLA (if you're ponyo).

Also consider the saved stress and sleepless nights these days (which could hurt your immunity!) if you just don't worry about it. You're ~35, right? This isn't something that you should worry about.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

nah, like ponyo said, just stay the course with those. Every day from now on, (and from last week on), you're already "winning" with any retirement cash going into the market. It sounds like you are struggling to convince yourself that you can perfectly time the market.

you can't.

the contributions are really quite limited in the end, so it really isn't that much money compared to what you could throw to, say, buying 20k shares of TSLA (if you're ponyo).

Also consider the saved stress and sleepless nights these days (which could hurt your immunity!) if you just don't worry about it. You're ~35, right? This isn't something that you should worry about.

Yeah I get it - and yeah I'm mid 30's.

I just like the thought of buying at substantially lower knowing it's going to recover. I mean, how much are we down now? 30% nearly?

It's just a matter of cranking up my contributions from 20% normal of spreading it out throughout the year to cranking it up to the max of 50% during these times where the market will undoubtedly be a lot lower than in 5 months from now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Trust me guys the volatility will continue. I am hearing panic in peoples voices when guests are interviewed on financial radio.

Im pretty positive we go lower, so if you are buying go small and dont go all in.

Could we bounce up 6,000 points or some crazy shit like that? Yes! Could we fall another 30% or more? Yes!

We now have to figure in reduced economic activity from all these closings and shutdowns. Until we know the impact 30 days or more from now, its hard to value companies right now, so stocks can be any price.

Patience is your friend right now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The other day I bought 400 shares MRRL @ 10.46. The next day I sold for $10.75.

Todays price? $5.50!

 

[Svnla]

One of the things I'm pondering right now:

How much of my paycheck to put towards my 401k investment... Since it's something that can only be changed on a 2-week basis (based on paychecks obviously), it can be hard to quickly pump money in when you believe there is a low.

Actually, now that I think about it - Maybe I should set it to max, but put it in a non-investment fund for now just to hold.... then I can make the final decision of when to move it to my investment account.

IMO, if you are putting money regularly per each pay check (dollar cost average), then continue what you are doing, do not sell. The market is down about 20% now from its record height but 2008-2009, it was down over 50% and I did not sell any of my investments and I did very well until last week.

I am happy and content with my 2.5% to 5% return from my numerous reward checking accounts, decent returns with FDIC backing. Just like Buffet, hoarding cash for now until the water is calmer.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

IMO, if you are putting money regularly per each pay check (dollar cost average), then continue what you are doing, do not sell. The market is down about 20% now from its record height but 2008-2009, it was down over 50% and I did not sell any of my investments and I did very well until last week.

I am happy and content with my 2.5% to 5% return from my numerous reward checking accounts, decent returns with FDIC backing. Just like Buffet, hoarding cash for now until the water is calmer.

Oh I definitely wasn't going to sell... It was just a matter of how much to contribute to each future pay period, and if I should put those in a stable money market for now.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Ugh, DOW just splattered against the wall for a double digit negative closing percentage.

EDIT: Sorry, thought it was closed. It's hovering right now.

Bastards, closed at -9.99%.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Heh, so with stocks down 10% today at closing...

I'm predicting a volatile rally tomorrow of a modest 5%... followed by another bigger loss the following day.

 

[cytg111]

Ok .. that was surreal ... what takes it into twilight territory is that outlook for tomorrow is ~same as today. In 4 days the US is gonna hit the same threshold as where Italy shut down. Imagine the worlds largest economy shutting down? What does that look like? Next week starting monday is gonna be one for the ages...

 

[woodman1999]

dropped 3.4% today, excluding a handful of MFs. If it somehow stays under 5, i am considering it a win...

 

[ThatsABigOne]

Any of you buying SPCE?

UPRO is cheap now...

 

[cytg111]

Any of you buying SPCE?

UPRO is cheap now...

Almost pulled on SPCE @ ~19 ... but figured more panic was to come. More panic came. I figure more panic will rule the narrative next week as well.

 

[snoopy7548]

Disney is closing Disneyland until the end of the month. My finger is getting itchy.

 

[Svnla]

Stock markets in Asia and Australia are down right now. Spreading like them virus.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Any of you buying SPCE?

UPRO is cheap now...

I bought some SPCE at 20.30 on Tuesday looking for quick flip. Damn thing went to $18.50. Took a loss and sold at that price. Then I realized they could be considered just a space travel stock, so I should be buying puts on SPCE since all travel stocks are getting pounded. Loaded up on $19 puts at sold them before the close Tuesday. Yesterday it was the $17 puts as SPCE continued to collapse, made a quick buck.

I did no trading until the last 15 mins of trading today because it was too damn crazy for me, but I finally decided to take a 7% premium payment for owing SPCE at $14 that expires tomorrow.

If it closes at or near $14 (which I doubt) on Friday, Ill keep the premium. Otherwise Ill get assigned 1000 shares, and will probably sell deep calls.

 

[jpiniero]

Futures are up big. More Fed pumping incoming.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Be careful with chasing those futures on the live, shit's gonna hit the fan over the weekend and you don't wanna be holding the potato come Monday.

 

[Captante]

Be careful with chasing those futures on the live, shit's gonna hit the fan over the weekend and you don't wanna be holding the potato come Monday.

Good advice.... long-term things will be fine don't panic and do dumb stuff.

 

[zinfamous]

Trust me guys the volatility will continue. I am hearing panic in peoples voices when guests are interviewed on financial radio.

Im pretty positive we go lower, so if you are buying go small and dont go all in.

Could we bounce up 6,000 points or some crazy shit like that? Yes! Could we fall another 30% or more? Yes!

We now have to figure in reduced economic activity from all these closings and shutdowns. Until we know the impact 30 days or more from now, its hard to value companies right now, so stocks can be any price.

Patience is your friend right now.

yes, this is definitely going lower...significantly. ALl the sports leagues shutting down only this week, the travel industry, hospitality, all of the consuming (and the cyber, and the medical...at least we have the medical (I make jokes)). There is going to be a lag of some...week or so, maybe? And then some massive hemmhoraging, regardless of what happens in the market over the next couple of trading days.

End of March and into April will probably be brutal once the effects of all of these closures starts to happen. ...I mean, NCAA tournament shutting down. I'm from NC. ...ACC tourney week > NCAA is basically all we live for the entire year. throughout the state. I have no idea what is going to happen there, lol. That's a multi-billion dollar annual industry. Also imagine the effect on marketing, advertising costs, the un-adjusted cost of those expenses, already bought-in, at what are now extortianate prices because there will be no bball on those ads.

 

[JEDI]

Futures are up big. More Fed pumping incoming.

Futures are Dead Cat Bouncing.

lets see what happens on Mon

 

[K1052]

yes, this is definitely going lower...significantly. ALl the sports leagues shutting down only this week, the travel industry, hospitality, all of the consuming (and the cyber, and the medical...at least we have the medical (I make jokes)). There is going to be a lag of some...week or so, maybe? And then some massive hemmhoraging, regardless of what happens in the market over the next couple of trading days.

End of March and into April will probably be brutal once the effects of all of these closures starts to happen. ...I mean, NCAA tournament shutting down. I'm from NC. ...ACC tourney week > NCAA is basically all we live for the entire year. throughout the state. I have no idea what is going to happen there, lol. That's a multi-billion dollar annual industry. Also imagine the effect on marketing, advertising costs, the un-adjusted cost of those expenses, already bought-in, at what are now extortianate prices because there will be no bball on those ads.

I'd expect layoffs to start sometime before the end of the month as companies and small biz start coming out of the shock of losing essentially all their customers overnight and move to preserve whatever cash they've got hoping to make it through to the other side of this alive. The market can do whatever in the meantime.