Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[Mermaidman]

Having to repay it makes it useless...
I also presume you would have to pay the income taxes on it.

It's supposed to be tax-free if it's repaid within 3 years. Details vague at this point.

Huh, remove money from your IRA when equities are getting cheaper? I'm going to be buying an index fund once the markets retest the March 23rd lows.
The only plausible reason I could think of borrowing from your IRA is if a person did not have an emergency fund, and needs cash for the next few months.
Between buying a new Tesla car vs. buying TSLA at $450, the former is a worse financial decision but maybe not by much.

Ya i think that [bolded part] is the likely intent of the law.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

The markets moved up today based on a tweet from Trump that Russia and Saudi were ready to negotiate or something. So lots of oil stocks were up 5-15%, and the market ended green. But nothing is confirmed there.

 

[manly]

The markets moved up today based on a tweet from Trump that Russia and Saudi were ready to negotiate or something. So lots of oil stocks were up 5-15%, and the market ended green. But nothing is confirmed there.

I don't understand what an oil crash has to do with the economy at large (it's funny how cheaper oil is good, but not too cheap?) but good luck with dealing with OPEC. SA and Russia couldn't even deal with each other successfully; it's fanciful to think POTUS could crash the party and make a 3-way deal.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Might be some glimmers of hope next week. Sellers getting tired.

Good Friday will shorten trading week.

 

[KB]

I don't understand what an oil crash has to do with the economy at large (it's funny how cheaper oil is good, but not too cheap?) but good luck with dealing with OPEC. SA and Russia couldn't even deal with each other successfully; it's fanciful to think POTUS could crash the party and make a 3-way deal.

Cheap oil is good. It means cheaper gas, which means its cheaper to transport products and services.
Really cheap oil is bad. That means oil companies can't make a profit so they stop drilling. Drill workers lose their jobs and then the companies that service oil workers like hotels, food services, tanker trucks stop working. States lose tax revenue from this activity which means states reduce services and workers, which can create a vicious loop of job losses.

 

[FelixDeCat]

However "too cheap" oil bankrupts oil gas companies, which in turn leads to big losses at banks, which leads to big losses for shareholders of both and unemployment for many including ancillary businesses.

All these economic losses ripple through the economy and claim many victims along the way.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Trump's two "Funding secured" oil tweets yesterday were excellent.
Loaded up on weekly IWM puts at yesterday's peak, sold today for a tidy profit.
Absolute BS market manipulation though (the tweets and regular outrageous 3:50 pump SPY candles)

This week is crucial - if SPY closes below ~247, bears are good
Above ~252, bulls are good (especially if SPY successfully retests ~260 next week)

Also our boy JPow goes infinite money brrrrrr (talk about MMT!)

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

Surprise, surprise. JPow is busy pumping SPY again.

MMs corralling us towards max pain (SPY ~251), and putting down the VIX.
Both bull and bear option holders are getting boned by vega and theta.
If VIX falls to the ~30s, all option holders who purchased when VIX was ~55-80 are headed to the breadline.

 

[JEDI]

Dow 15k very likely according to strategist:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-15000-very-likely-as-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-us-economy-strategist-181857580.html

"the economy could begin to show signs of life in the fourth quarter of this year "

next jobless claim report might be 8M.


3M + 6M +8M = 17M people lost their jobs in the past 3 weeks, if his prediction is true

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Dow 15k very likely according to strategist:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-15000-very-likely-as-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-us-economy-strategist-181857580.html

"the economy could begin to show signs of life in the fourth quarter of this year "

next jobless claim report might be 8M.


3M + 6M +8M = 17M people lost their jobs in the past 3 weeks, if his prediction is true

sounds... completely expected.

Though I don't think it will take to Q4 to to "show signs".

The moment people are publicly told by government to return to work in any-way (school, shopping, etc..) we will probably gain 20%.

 

[dasherHampton]

I haven't checked my stuff lately but I saw a blurb that SRNE jumped 25% so I looked at it.

Go Sorrento. Looks like they have some promising coronavirus stuff in the pipeline and they're already working on other virus-related stuff right now.

I figured I'd be holding those 4000 shares for a long time but maybe it'll pop back up sooner than I thought.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I haven't checked my stuff lately but I saw a blurb that SRNE jumped 25% so I looked at it.

Go Sorrento. Looks like they have some promising coronavirus stuff in the pipeline and they're already working on other virus-related stuff right now.

I figured I'd be holding those 4000 shares for a long time but maybe it'll pop back up sooner than I thought.

I still have that one on my Biotech watch list, although I kind of lost of faith in them.

They have a pending lawsuit against a previous partner potentially worth $1B:

April 2019:

Sorrento Therapeutics sues Soon-Shiong, alleging it was shortchanged in cancer drug sale

A San Diego biopharmaceutical company is accusing its business partner, biotech entrepreneur Dr.

www.latimes.com

Update as of October 2019:

Los Angeles Court Rejects Patrick Soon-Shiong’s Attempt to Avoid Sorrento Litigation Allowing Arbitration Case to Move Forward | BioSpace

Los Angeles Court Rejects Patrick Soon-Shiong’s Attempt to Avoid Sorrento Litigation Allowing Arbitration Case to Move Forward - read this article along with other careers information, tips and advice on BioSpace

www.biospace.com

The company has a current market cap $450M. A billion dollar judgement could be helpful but it may take years to play out and there is no guarantee how much they are awarded or if they even win.

 

[manly]

Cheap oil is good. It means cheaper gas, which means its cheaper to transport products and services.
Really cheap oil is bad. That means oil companies can't make a profit so they stop drilling. Drill workers lose their jobs and then the companies that service oil workers like hotels, food services, tanker trucks stop working. States lose tax revenue from this activity which means states reduce services and workers, which can create a vicious loop of job losses.

I get all that, but it just goes to show that U.S. shale oil production at $45/barrel cost of production is not economically competitive with most other producers. Sure, when oil prices were sky high, U.S. production boomed. Strategically it's a good thing to be less reliant on imports. But like many businesses facing the Covid-19 crisis, your business model needs to be robust enough to survive unexpected shocks. And from an environmental standpoint, I was never very fond of damaging the earth irreparably to drill at $45 and sell at $50 per barrel.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Wall St betting on virus numbers going down.....futures up 3%.

 

[manlymatt83]

I have a bunch of questions...

1. What's everyone's REIT of choice these days?
2. Anyone else doing the 55/45 UPRO/TMF split?
3. What do folks think of $VFMF?
4. Anyone follow Paul Merriman and tilt towards SLYV/IJS and/or DLS/DGS
5. What does everyone think of Okta?
6. Anyone in BAM/BEP?

 

[manlymatt83]

Wall St betting on virus numbers going down.....futures up 3%.

Glad I closed all of my call spreads on Friday.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I have a bunch of questions...

1. What's everyone's REIT of choice these days?
2. Anyone else doing the 55/45 UPRO/TMF split?
3. What do folks think of $VFMF?
4. Anyone follow Paul Merriman and tilt towards SLYV/IJS and/or DLS/DGS
5. What does everyone think of Okta?
6. Anyone in BAM/BEP?

REITS are kind of risky right now with 10 million people out of work, renters strikes going on, large and small companies announcing they are not making rent payments while they are shuttered, etc.

If I bought it any, it would like only be for an intraday trade. Some zoomed up nearly 100% in couple of days after the first crash while back after the big stimulus bill passed. Then reality set in.

If residential and commercial tenants dont make payments on even 10% of loans, thats going to be pretty bad. The reason is that REITS use leverage and buy lots of mortgage or commercial paper or hold direct investments in RE and they do so on margin (leverage) of 2 to 1, 3 to 1 or more.

Anticipating these losses, the mega banks loaning them the money to borrow cheap short term money to buy long term rate paper have started demanding more collateral. So REITS have had to de-leverage and sell notes at a discount (loss) from face value as they are were dumping all at once and takers were not there unless they got a good deal.

Most REITS have suspended dividends to stay alive. Some have the advantage of being RMBS (government guaranteed Residential Mortgage Back Securities) investors, so their share prices have been more stable as the Fed has been stabilizing the market. HOWEVER some of them are also servicers of that paper for other invsestors. As a result, THEY ARE OBLIGATED to forward principal and interest payments to mortgage bond holders REGARDLESS if payments are received or not.

So all of the sudden some RMBS REITS are not looking so good anymore. One is NLY, which held up well but going downhill. They are investors but also servicers. So is TWO (Two Harbors). Supposedly the government is going to relieve RMBS servicers from forwarding required P&I unless they get a payment in the next stimulus bill, but that will hurt RMBS investors..

AGNC is supposedly the best of breed, but right now they entire sector is toxic. Better for a daytrade at the moment.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Glad I closed all of my call spreads on Friday.

I used to do spreads when I had a margin account, but I got tired of getting forced to buy in during heavy volatility. Ive been trading cash since 2015. No more margin interest felt good. Now I get paid, not the other way around.

 

[woodman1999]

The only REIT I currently hold is EQR. It is down about 40% since its February highs, but all in all I think that is tolerable compared to a lot of other options out there.

 

[dasherHampton]

I almost diversified some of my holdings by pushing some chips into REITs a few months ago but for now I'm glad I held off.

 

[dasherHampton]

I finally logged in to my main trading account. Its not as bad as I thought. It's lost about 12% total.

Remember that $1000 I put in a robo IRA last fall? Surprisingly it hasn't lost any money. It now stands at $1001.77!

I'm going to start calling it my hobo IRA.

 

[KB]

‘The worst is behind us’ — the most attractive risk-reward in years means it is time to buy stocks, Morgan Stanley says

It’s a Monday but there is optimism in the air. Tentative signs that the coronavirus spread may be slowing have encouraged investors.

www.marketwatch.com

Morgan Stanley says its time to buy.

I think they are premature. Just because virus numbers are coming down, it doesn't mean we can open up the economy and job losses won't continue.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Kind of my thoughts as well. Despite numbers improving in places like Italy and Spain, and maybe even the US soon - we still have no exit strategy in place on how to return to normal. If SPX actually breaks upward this week to ~2800 (purely a technical play that could happen) I will be shorting it heavily if nothing else really changes.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Got some CCL for a short covering rally. Be nice to see $12 again.

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia initiated a 5%+ stake this quarter.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

‘The worst is behind us’ — the most attractive risk-reward in years means it is time to buy stocks, Morgan Stanley says

It’s a Monday but there is optimism in the air. Tentative signs that the coronavirus spread may be slowing have encouraged investors.

www.marketwatch.com

Morgan Stanley says its time to buy.

I think they are premature. Just because virus numbers are coming down, it doesn't mean we can open up the economy and job losses won't continue.

That and they are thinking too microscopic. This is... a... (wait for it)... PANDEMIC. That means this is international related. While we are next in line to hit peak - there will be 10 next countries in line that will hit their peak.... and those in turn will effect the US economy.

Countries like Brazil are really starting to feel the heat - next will be the rest of LATAM. Then who knows?