Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
One last point about silver and gold. The disconnect between paper spot and physical bullion will shrink and premiums will come back down to normal once all the refiners are back up and running. Why? Because I can look at Scottsdale Mint products and see the premiums are little higher than normal but not crazy high. Scottsdale have been operating their refinery this whole time while other refiners have temporarily shutdown. Scottsdale have always been kind of expensive. But they do good work, and I love Scottsdale silver products. One of my favorite Scottsdale silver product is their 5 oz cast buttons.

 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Earnings season about to get underway. We will finally get some insight into how this has been impacting companies and see how many companies pull guidance until the country is reopened.

Futures currently off 1%, we probably see a 3-5% decline this week.
 

skull

Platinum Member
Jun 5, 2000
2,209
327
126
The world is printing trillions to keep this broken monetary system going. It's going to either result in hyperinflation or stagflation (probably the latter).

Gold up to $1750. It's forming a very similar pattern that Bitcoin back in 2017 - although aver a much longer time period, before it broke out to extreme new ATHs. I don't think it'll stop at "only $2000" when it does...


If I'm interpreting this article right, it was written before the major QE/stimulus. It sounds like theres a huge demand for dollars worldwide so shouldn't cause hyperinflation. Since the liquidity is needed world wide for the dollar to keep being used as the world reserve currency. Maybe I'm wrong thought it was an interesting read regardless. You also have the deflationary pressures of people not buying and other people desperately needing to sell to raise cash, lowering prices.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Poll Time....

Has the US Economy.....

A) Already hit its low point for this recession
B) Will soon hit the low point for this recession (next 1-3 months)
C) Will hit the low point in the distant future (next 4-8 months)

?
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
TSLA feels like it wants to breakout and go above $600. So I wrote weekly $550 naked put to capture the premium. If it falls below my strike price, I'll be happy to own the stock.
 
Reactions: WhoBeDaPlaya

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,300
5,729
136
Poll Time....

Has the US Economy.....

A) Already hit its low point for this recession
B) Will soon hit the low point for this recession (next 1-3 months)
C) Will hit the low point in the distant future (next 4-8 months)

?

my guess is C

but i suck at guessing
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,403
8,199
126
Poll Time....

Has the US Economy.....

A) Already hit its low point for this recession
B) Will soon hit the low point for this recession (next 1-3 months)
C) Will hit the low point in the distant future (next 4-8 months)

?

We haven't begun really feeling the pain of record unemployment and the downstream of that. What small business will be around once we come out. And how devastated the hospitality and tourism industry will be. And then if we turn right back around and do this again in November if no vaccine is available again. C is probably my closest guess. Some of this is going to stretch into the fall.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
We haven't begun really feeling the pain of record unemployment and the downstream of that. What small business will be around once we come out. And how devastated the hospitality and tourism industry will be. And then if we turn right back around and do this again in November if no vaccine is available again. C is probably my closest guess. Some of this is going to stretch into the fall.

The arguement from the other side is "The market already knows that and has already priced it in"

Personally I land in the middle of B.
 

vi edit

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Oct 28, 1999
62,403
8,199
126
The arguement from the other side is "The market already knows that and has already priced it in"

Personally I land in the middle of B.

I don't think "the market" has any concept of how bad this could be. We've never seen anything like it.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
If you own chip stocks get out now, while you still can. It was only a matter of time.


I dumped my Micron and never looked back.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Poll Time....

Has the US Economy.....

A) Already hit its low point for this recession
B) Will soon hit the low point for this recession (next 1-3 months)
C) Will hit the low point in the distant future (next 4-8 months)

?

D) Nobody knows....de trubble I seen.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
NUGT on an extreme monster rally. Gold miners hitting all time highs, GDX 52 week high around the corner.

Good thing I only have 3 $10 call options for $1.04.

<Eyeroll.gif>
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
If you own chip stocks get out now, while you still can. It was only a matter of time.


I dumped my Micron and never looked back.
yet nasdaq went up today?
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
yet nasdaq went up today?

When I wrote "get out now" I was being overly dramatic. I'm not saying sell all of your chip stocks tomorrow.

But don't wait forever. In a worst case scenario China will flood the market with cheap chips sooner than you think. Companies like Micron aren't going away but their value could be slashed dramatically.
 

WhoBeDaPlaya

Diamond Member
Sep 15, 2000
7,414
401
126
JPow/Mnuchin/Trump can keep the financial economy divorced from the real economy awhile longer all Modern Monetary Theory like (we can look to Japan to see what could happen if we go far down this road)
The way I see it, Nov is the absolute latest when sh*t will hit the fan irrespective of the election outcome - if Trump wins, it's the 2nd term so who cares - if Trump loses, f*ck the next guy
The trick is whether the whole sham blows up before Nov.
I don't think "the market" has any concept of how bad this could be. We've never seen anything like it.
"The market" doesn't care - bad news -> +5%, no news -> +10%, good news -> new all time highs.
We came from a 3-day market weekend, #FireFauci, etc. and barely closed 1.4% down with futures already green.
Not complaining, bought some short term IWM calls at the dip earlier today at a discount.

Volume is suspiciously low, and it seems to be mostly algols / MMs trading back and forth to delta-hedge.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Ive mentioned earlier in this thread that short money is the hardest to make, especially when you are betting against the entire stock market.

Right now the government has its finger on the scales tipping it in favor of stabilizing credit markets, bond markets and the entire economy itself. This is done to keep full employment. These actions have a cost, and that is big debt added to the already large Fed balance sheet and of course the national debt, which we NEVER repay. Ever.

We love eating dinner, but we never intend on paying the bill. The worse part is, we eat on the governments tab even during the best of times! Can you believe that? Trillion dollar annual deficits during a record beating economy. Raise taxes or cut spending, just balance the budget.
 
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Bitek

Lifer
Aug 2, 2001
10,650
5,224
136
TSLA feels like it wants to breakout and go above $600. So I wrote weekly $550 naked put to capture the premium. If it falls below my strike price, I'll be happy to own the stock.

I bought a good amount last week at 480-500 and boogied out today. Probably could have held out for longer but IDK what to think, other than I'm going to take my money and run.
 
Reactions: ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I bought a good amount last week at 480-500 and boogied out today. Probably could have held out for longer but IDK what to think, other than I'm going to take my money and run.
TSLA is just playing catch-up. TSLA was still down around 50% from its high while most of the FAANG stock are back near 52 week high or only down like 20% at most. TSLA is just closing the gap. I think TSLA was lagging because people were scared of the 1st quarter production and delivery numbers. But when TSLA numbers came out on April 2 and it was really good, people started jumping back in. I saw what was happening and still didn't act. I should've bought TSLA $600 weekly calls yesterday like I was thinking about. Could've made 10 times my money in one day. Got to refocus on the big picture.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
Yep. Theta will eat you alive on short term options. And you also had IV crush that tag teamed with Theta to rip you a new one.

That retard who YOLO $780 on the 6/19 SPX 1500P is now down over $550,000.

And like true retard, he claims he's not worried when the puts he selected are so OTM that he needs a miracle. He needs another big drop like the one we had in March for him to even get back to his original level. It's not over until it's over, but if I was in his shoes, I would be sweating and praying everyday.

Another retard is down $900,000 on 6/19 SPY 211 puts. This retard scored huge earlier this year on SPCE leap calls and actually was up over $6 million dollars on SPCE but didn't sell. Over $6 million in profit and didn't sell. That's life changing money. He almost gave everything back and panic sold when his account dropped to $1.5 million. The only smart thing he did was he took out $500k and paid off his mortgage. And then proceeded to YOLO the remainder into 6/19 SPY 211 puts.

But as crazy as they are, I respect these retards because they have skin in the game and put their money where their mouth is. I been in their shoes betting over million dollars on a play and it's beyond nerve wrecking. But I've never bet that kind of money on pure options. I don't have the balls for that. It's always been on stocks at that level of commitment.
these yolo guys are being killed.
 
Reactions: brianmanahan

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
And now TSLA is over 700 of course lol.
yep, TSLA moves can be mind blowing. FOMO is so strong with me right now because I know what TSLA is capable of and what TSLA will be in the future. But I'm only holding single TSLA Jan 2021 call right now so I feel so sick in my stomach for missing this move. I'm up around $85k on TSLA naked puts I sold the past month but that's small consolation when I missed more half a million dollar move on TSLA. That's what I get for playing conservative and not trusting my instinct.

these yolo guys are being killed.
Thank you Captain Obvious. At least those guys play with real money and put their money where their mouth is. Which is more than can be said for many here.
 

WhoBeDaPlaya

Diamond Member
Sep 15, 2000
7,414
401
126
And now TSLA is over 700 of course lol.
This is absolutely asinine, but I'm out.
Purchased a few TSLA at ~$450, bailed at $730.
Also bailed on AMZN (bought in near ATH shortly before Corona - never dreamed I would break even, let alone profit!)
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,300
5,729
136
Thank you Captain Obvious. At least those guys play with real money and put their money where their mouth is. Which is more than can be said for many here.

playing with a majority of your real money often ends badly. just see /r/wallstreetbets.

a little bit? sure. but a lot of it? no thanks.

just saw a guy on WSB who bet the wrong direction and got margin called for 1$ million. they gave him a week and he couldn't make it back up, so now it's legal battle time.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Thank you Captain Obvious. At least those guys play with real money and put their money where their mouth is. Which is more than can be said for many here.

As if that's something amazing to boast about?

Yeah - the majority of the working world (~97% I would venture to say) are risk adverse and want as least risk as possible.

The types that are willing to take gigantic risks are just a rare breed of people (or so rich that they don't care about the potential losses).
 
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