Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I mentioned Teekay Tankers symbol TNK. The assumption is that companies like TNK would increase in value and give out huge dividends to shareholders, that is if now plays out like 2008.
Sorry, I missed it. Why is the max chart only go back to 2008? But I'll let you value and oil guys invest. Me, I have no edge in area over specialist in this industry so I will steer clear. I will get shaken and eaten alive. At least if I'm the one renting and storing the oil myself, I would have direct pulse on what's going on on the ground.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
TSLA's recent run isn't about earnings, after all they aren't going to be making much any time soon. It's about the other car companies doing worse, maybe gambling that one or a couple others goes out of business first.
TSLA crazy run started right after their Q1 P&D report they released after the market closed on April 2. Pretty much since then, TSLA has rocketed up. It's something like 10 straight days of gains. Couple days in row of crazy afterhour and premarket runup. Call buyers who bought TSLA calls right before the close would wake up to 10-40 times their money from the close day before. Insane stuff you see during TSLA earnings run.

Everyone already knows all other companies are doing worse. This is about TSLA and their much better than expected Q1 P&D report and large increase of sales in China for March. Dumb shorts tried to paint story about demand falling in China in January. I mean it's retarded stuff but algobots that trade doesn't really know the difference and pretty much only reads the manipulated headlines. Anybody who follows TSLA knew it was bullshit. So don't fvcking tell me this is about all other auto companies doing worse. That's like saying water is wet. This is earning run and TSLA making up for lost time and market saying TSLA is going be one the big winners when this COVID-19 BS is all over.
 

WhoBeDaPlaya

Diamond Member
Sep 15, 2000
7,414
401
126
Busy with work today, and didn't execute very well. Still walked away with a few hundred, but could have been a bit more.
Cash gang for the weekend, apart from GLD puts that are being gradually resurrected.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,525
27,829
136
This market has the attention span of a coked up kitten and a mind numbing credulous nature. To steal a quote from Douglas Adams: “Unfortunately this market had developed a fault, and had started to believe all kinds of things, more or less at random. It was even beginning to believe things they'd have difficulty believing in Salt Lake City.”
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,841
5,456
136
TSLA crazy run started right after their Q1 P&D report they released after the market closed on April 2.

Problem is, there's no guarantee that car sales in general will resume anywhere close to where it was before the virus.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Bought some SQQQ calls for next week.

Everyone knows this market is overbought but the computers think otherwise. In fact the algos want to set a new 52 week high soon.

We will see who wins "shortly".
 

WhoBeDaPlaya

Diamond Member
Sep 15, 2000
7,414
401
126
Yikes, 3x leveraged fund is not something I'd like to play with

Again, there's a solid case to be made for why the market should be down (over-leveraged companies, etc.), but it has been irrational for longer than I can remain solvent. Already burned on 4/17 $220 SPY puts (bailed out 2 weeks ago), and am bagholding two 5/1 $220 SPY put contracts.

The play was roughly - SPY down, IWM down, GLD down, and UUP up by mid-late Apr timeframe. It did not play out well Fortunately, already made up for it by daily scalping IWM calls.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
Yikes, 3x leveraged fund is not something I'd like to play with

Again, there's a solid case to be made for why the market should be down (over-leveraged companies, etc.), but it has been irrational for longer than I can remain solvent. Already burned on 4/17 $220 SPY puts (bailed out 2 weeks ago), and am bagholding two 5/1 $220 SPY put contracts.

The play was roughly - SPY down, IWM down, GLD down, and UUP up by mid-late Apr timeframe. It did not play out well Fortunately, already made up for it by daily scalping IWM calls.
yup, lost sqqq at 20. got out at 18.
got back in @ 14, and stopped out at $12.50 today. (session low )
going back in at 11

/learn my lesson?
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Bought some SQQQ calls for next week.

Everyone knows this market is overbought but the computers think otherwise. In fact the algos want to set a new 52 week high soon.

We will see who wins "shortly".

I think the time to short will be when we reopen or announce reopening. There will be an optimistic pop, then we realize, oh crap the economy.
 

mohit9206

Golden Member
Jul 2, 2013
1,381
511
136
Time to short would be below S&P below 2750, then you have free money all the way down to 2500
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
I think the time to short will be when we reopen or announce reopening. There will be an optimistic pop, then we realize, oh crap the economy.

I am wondering now if the biggest money managers have just set the computers on autopilot and have instructed them to buy at all costs and no matter the price. They have done this for years now.

Anyone looking to make a short buck may have to do so on individual stocks vs the whole market. I keep seeing articles of all this money sitting on the sidelines looking for a home. While the market should retrace (and may), its likely the computers going to put some support in.

The computers dont care about price, they just buy.
 
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IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,525
27,829
136
I am wondering now if the biggest money managers have just set the computers on autopilot and have instructed them to buy at all costs and no matter the price. They have done this for years now.

Anyone looking to make a short buck may have to do so on individual stocks vs the whole market. I keep seeing articles of all this money sitting on the sidelines looking for a home. While the market should retrace (and may), its likely the computers going to put some support in.

The computers dont care about price, they just buy.
401k plans stocked with index funds definitely do this so that's a big pile of money going into stocks every pay day, regardless of market conditions.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
401k plans stocked with index funds definitely do this so that's a big pile of money going into stocks every pay day, regardless of market conditions.

Over a month ago I sold my junk bonds that were falling in value as quickly as the market was. I moved all my money into GSELX (my choices are limited) when the QQQ's were at 167/170. I figured stocks would recover faster than junk bonds would. So far I am UP about 1.5% for 2020 in my 401k.

On Friday, I sold GSELX and moved everything back into junk bonds paying 6.50% (FIHBX). The other choice was money markets paying near zero or gov bonds which are at record highs.

Future contributions will be averaged into stocks, but the bulk of my 401K money is out of stocks. My plan restricts changes so I have to look about 30 days ahead.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
TSLA is a beast. If it closes green today, that will be like 11 straight trading day in a row for TSLA. The beast can't be contained and more so during its earnings run.
 
Reactions: WhoBeDaPlaya

WhoBeDaPlaya

Diamond Member
Sep 15, 2000
7,414
401
126
TSLA is a beast. If it closes green today, that will be like 11 straight trading day in a row for TSLA. The beast can't be contained and more so during its earnings run.
Got a few TSLA calls at open since it is 4/20. Was not disappointed
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Not seeing any bargains right now. Flipped some Spice this morning, sold.

What really kills me is that I was looking at Antero Resources (AR) at $1 but was afraid to trade it since oil is the worst sector...ever.

Dam thing is like a rocket ship now $1.77, not sure why. Missed out on it, and still afraid to touch it.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
I decided to dip my toes back into the water.

Sold 40 BAC 6/19 18 puts for a little under $4000. It's risky; if the pandemic kicks up who knows what's going to happen but I'm comfortable with BAC at $18 a share.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
I decided to dip my toes back into the water.

Sold 40 BAC 6/19 18 puts for a little under $4000. It's risky; if the pandemic kicks up who knows what's going to happen but I'm comfortable with BAC at $18 a share.

I have a funny feeling BAC will be in bidness before, during and after this pandemic.

Question is what will the economy look like 6 months from now, thats the $64k question.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
I have a funny feeling BAC will be in bidness before, during and after this pandemic.

Question is what will the economy look like 6 months from now, thats the $64k question.

Yeah, if BAC goes insolvent I'll have bigger issues than losing money on some BAC shares. But what if a collapsing world economy sends the shares down to $15? I'd be 12 grand behind the 8 ball the start.

But I don't think I'd let that happen unless decently quick recovery seems inevitable. If they get close to $18 I'll probably just eat a loss and buy the options back.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Um, can someone explain oil futures falling 90% to $1-2?

It is mind-blowing, but I have some idea. We have seen a huge demand decrease from the quaratine at the same time Saudi Arabia was ramping up production and sending it here in order to crush the shale drillers. Almost all capacity to hold oil is exhausted. This means it is almost a liability to hold the oil because there is no where to put it and no one needs it.

Edit: Reading up on it more, it appears to be caused by traders who are exiting oil contracts because they don't want to take delivery of the oil as there is no where to store it.


TNK Teekay Tankers is up 14% today. Tanker ships will be the last and only place to put it. The hard part is knowing when to get out.


Edit: Just checked again. -$8/barrel. Time to fill the pool with oil!!
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Yeah, if BAC goes insolvent I'll have bigger issues than losing money on some BAC shares. But what if a collapsing world economy sends the shares down to $15? I'd be 12 grand behind the 8 ball the start.

But I don't think I'd let that happen unless decently quick recovery seems inevitable. If they get close to $18 I'll probably just eat a loss and buy the options back.

They survived 08, theyll survive 20, even if we wind up with a mini depression.

You can always sell calls against the shares until Kingdom comes.
 
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