Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Love this volatility.....


Reminds me of this scene, recalling the market crash of 2008 and the trading opportunities it created:

 

[dasherHampton]

I went in more on BAC. Sold 60 12/18 16 puts.

 

[FelixDeCat]

And now for a fun story... bought 200 shares of OAS oil for .47 and sold for 25% daytrade profit.

The funny part was it was $100 I was going to withdraw for cash at noon. Now its $125! Im rich!

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

At this point, I've been treating IWM like a slot machine for the past ~2-3 weeks

 

[ultimatebob]

I like how people on CNBC are arguing about how this is going to be a U shaped or a V shaped recovery like they actually know something about how this ends.

Personally, I think that it's going to be a L shaped non-recovery until we start vaccinating people.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

It feels like this rally is losing steam. Volume is down, and MAs are converging. I really can't see why one would want to long here, but I've thought that the past 2 weeks and I'm currently down on my short position.

Personally, I think that it's going to be a L shaped non-recovery until we start vaccinating people.

Re-opening is the perfect sell the news and trap the retail investor. Stores in Germany have reopened and yet nobody is out shopping - which means money isn't being spent and lots of jobs are not coming back. There's no way the market has priced this in. There will be no full recovery for a long time.

 

[ponyo]

Why has the SEC not gone after this manipulating assh*le Adam Feuerstein? Last week Thursday, he manipulates GILD and the market to rally afterhours with that BS positive Chicago trial story. Now after his crooked hedge fund buddies have pumped and dumped their GILD stock and options, he's playing the otherside by reporting previous failed China study. Again on Thursday. Again after his hedge fund bros and buddies have taken short position this time. Thursday is the optimal day since weekly options expire tomorrow. Cheaper premium means maximum profit.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1253365703421419522

SEC, do your FUCKING job!

 

[FelixDeCat]

News alert... Adam has been doing that forever. I remember jumping into some hot biotechs back around 2007 just to see Adam take a big sht on the stock so shorts could make a killing.

During the boom of 2014 I bought ADXS at 3.99 and got greedy...didnt sell when hit $8, then hitman Adam was brought in and it fell to $5. A week later it was almost $10! The all time high for 2014 was $33.

Adam is a paid mercenary, hes been doing it forever. And all his friends will make sure he continues to get away with it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Speaking of greedy .. I resisted buying OAS back but gave in....2200 @ .63 for HSA and 980 @ .63 for tiny cash account.

All in for a flip.

 

[WhoBeDaPlaya]

I like how people on CNBC are arguing about how this is going to be a U shaped or a V shaped recovery like they actually know something about how this ends.

I only watch CNBC for entertainment - only thing I know for dead certain is that stocks go right!

It's also hilarious to see the change in headlines/graphics on the CNBC site when say the DOW flips from +100 to -100. With VIX so high, the changes are so violent/fast that the headlines/graphics sometimes get out-of-sync (eg. "Stocks rallying" with a graphic of a guy jumping off of a bridge)

As far as today, that ~mid-day flash crash was interesting. Didn't do that well today - only made $80 by flipping 8 IWM 4/24 $120Ps.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I only watch CNBC for entertainment - only thing I know for dead certain is that stocks go right!

It's also hilarious to see the change in headlines/graphics on the CNBC site when say the DOW flips from +100 to -100. With VIX so high, the changes are so violent/fast that the headlines/graphics sometimes get out-of-sync (eg. "Stocks rallying" with a graphic of a guy jumping off of a bridge)

As far as today, that ~mid-day flash crash was interesting. Didn't do that well today - only made $80 by flipping 8 IWM 4/24 $120Ps.

Any day when you can finish positive is a good day! I've been on a bit of losing streak lately in my main account.

Either losses or gains...they all add up.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I only watch CNBC for entertainment - only thing I know for dead certain is that stocks go right!

It's also hilarious to see the change in headlines/graphics on the CNBC site when say the DOW flips from +100 to -100. With VIX so high, the changes are so violent/fast that the headlines/graphics sometimes get out-of-sync (eg. "Stocks rallying" with a graphic of a guy jumping off of a bridge)

As far as today, that ~mid-day flash crash was interesting. Didn't do that well today - only made $80 by flipping 8 IWM 4/24 $120Ps.

truedat.

I'm missing my work traveling days, while getting ready in the morning in the hotel I always turn on CNBC while getting ready.

 

[ponyo]

I used to watch CNBC for the female anchors. Erin Burnett and now Becky Quick. But I rarely watch TV now. I canceled cable TV like 10 years ago. Only reason I can still watch CNBC is because of my TD Ameritrade ThinkorSwim app. But I rarely watch it as I find it really distracting. I need to put it on very low volume or mute if I have it on.

 

[dasherHampton]

Man, for anyone who's got balls there is shit out there. Take WDC, for example. It's trading at $40 right now. Jan 15/2021 30 puts are at $4.10.

To put it simply, with simple numbers: If you're willing to back $75,000 worth of WDC for someone until next January at $30 a share they'll pay you over ten grand for the privilege.

That drops your cost basis to just over $25 a share.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I listen to CNBC/Fox Business/Fox News/MSNBC/CNN/HLN on my phone while working. I also love the 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s channels in the car. You can get a discount if you buy car and phone streaming a year in advance from Sirius, about $12 a month.

On CNBC today they interviewed an old time trader who has seen lots of crazy things going back to the 70s in the stock, bond and commodities markets......

But in 40 years of trading he said seeing oil go NEGATIVE took the cake. Then Pete Najarian retorted that "people who short puts on stocks, etc., should understand that it is possible for an instrument to go NEGATIVE, but it is incredibly rare." Now that we have all seen it together, people will need to account for this during extraordinary times.



.

HOWEVER, it will take some time to work off the glut of oil SA and Russia dumped.

 

[dasherHampton]

The fact that the Big Short guy is in my corner gives me a little confidence that my BAC bet is ok. lol

'Big Short' Steve Eisman likes the big US banks after coronavirus sell-off

"I actually think long-term the best cyclical play out there are the very large banks," said Steve Eisman, senior portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

www.cnbc.com

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

1/5 of the population that actually works are unemployed.... You would think people would be shitting bigger bricks at this point.

 

[ponyo]

Man, for anyone who's got balls there is shit out there. Take WDC, for example. It's trading at $40 right now. Jan 15/2021 30 puts are at $4.10.

To put it simply, with simple numbers: If you're willing to back $75,000 worth of WDC for someone until next January at $30 a share they'll pay you over ten grand for the privilege.

That drops your cost basis to just over $25 a share.

I don't know anything about WDC but Jan 2021 is longtime in the options world. Lot can happen 8 months. I'm all about cash covered puts, but I don't sell that far out. If I'm selling 8 months out, I want far higher max return than 13% for my cash. I want theta to work for me so I like selling weeklys and month or two out at most. Cash covered puts are still risky and you're tying up your cash capital. 13% max return is not enough reward given the outsized risk.

 

[brianmanahan]

1/5 of the population that actually works are unemployed.... You would think people would be shitting bigger bricks at this point.

i wonder what percent are posting on ATOT while they're supposed to be working

 

[ponyo]

1/5 of the population that actually works are unemployed.... You would think people would be shitting bigger bricks at this point.

Market has gone up 5 straight Thursday after unemployment numbers. That tells you no one is shitting bricks and it's currently priced in. And really, no one cares about unemployment numbers right now. Why should they care? Now like 6 months from now they will start caring about unemployment numbers again. But now is not the time to care.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

i wonder what percent are posting on ATOT while they're supposed to be working

Hey hey - I'm on paid parental leave... perfect timing too

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anyone who thinks unemployment doesnt matter either doesnt know how a consumer driven economy works or has had too much to drink..

The reason why the effect of the catastrophic unemployment number has been blunted is because everyone is on the dole for now, and we expect a reopened economy will provide jobs for those people when the time comes.

Without all the bailouts there would be anarchy and rioting in the streets and stocks we be at or near zero.

We would be Venezuela.

Edit: Also Chavezes extreme socialist agenda destroyed their economy coinciding with the collapse in oil. Their currency became worthless as a result and unless we dig ourselves out of debt one day the dollar too will also crash.

Viva Chavez!

 

[ponyo]

No one is saying unemployment don't matter. It will eventually. Right now 2.4 trillion stimulus bailout and Fed money > unemployment numbers. To give you an idea how much 1 trillion dollar is, if you only stacked $100 bills, that stack of $100 Benjamins would go over 678 miles high into the air.

 

[brianmanahan]

Hey hey - I'm on paid parental leave... perfect timing too

ooh nice

i should have a kid

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yeah, thats what I said.