Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[brianmanahan]

Meanwhile....

US home-mortgage delinquencies surge to the highest level in 9 years

While the jump in delinquencies was less than the record spike in April, uncertainty looms for many homeowners because of the coronavirus pandemic.

markets.businessinsider.com

i waited too long to buy a house at a decent price over the last few years, maybe i'll get another chance

then again if my job goes full-time remote then it'll definitely affect where i want to buy a house

i'll probably keep second guessing myself and living in apartments until i'm dead

 

[ponyo]

i waited too long to buy a house at a decent price over the last few years, maybe i'll get another chance

then again if my job goes full-time remote then it'll definitely affect where i want to buy a house

i'll probably keep second guessing myself and living in my parent's basement until i'm dead

fixed it for you.

 

[ponyo]

Our stock market right now:

View attachment 23942


Meanwhile....

US home-mortgage delinquencies surge to the highest level in 9 years

While the jump in delinquencies was less than the record spike in April, uncertainty looms for many homeowners because of the coronavirus pandemic.

markets.businessinsider.com

Market is the truth. You're not smarter than the market.

 

[IEC]

fixed it for you.

Better than old's basement.

 

[dullard]

Market is the truth. You're not smarter than the market.

Market amplifies the opinion of the richest. That might be truth, it might not be.

 

[ponyo]

Market amplifies the opinion of the richest. That might be truth, it might not be.

When you're playing the game, the market is the truth. You play by the rules of the market. Whatever the market is doing at that particular time, that's the truth. The truth might change later. You as a participant is only along for the ride. You can scream the market is stupid and shouldn't be going up all you want but if the market is going up, that means you're wrong.

 

[zinfamous]

When you're playing the game, the market is the truth. You play by the rules of the market. Whatever the market is doing at that particular time, that's the truth. The truth might change later. You as a participant is only along for the ride. You can scream the market is stupid and shouldn't be going up all you want but if the market is going up, that means you're wrong.

Bolded...that makes no logical sense. Let's not redefine what actual words mean to try and fit them into an industry that doesn't really work within those actual definitions.

It's like hearing people use terms that they fundamentally don't understand, because they know nothing of the context and the theory behind them, force them into topics that fundamentally reject the actual meaning:

"survival of the fittest!" (no one who uses this in popular culture actually understands what "fit" means)
"social darwinism!" (literally impossible)
"It's in our [insert dumb personal/corporate identity here] DNA!" (DNA can inform or really just suggest many things, but we know it is merely a fraction of the picture of "how")

...I get what you're saying but "truth" is the wrong word. I don't think it really applies to explaining overall how the market works, if only in the sense that the only "truth" is that there is no truth?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

The truth was that there was a huge ass housing bubble long before the market reacted.

The market is filled with tons of incompetent humans, and it took forever for the market to finally react to something that was sounding an alarm well-beforehand.

By that very definition, it isn't "smarter than you".

 

[dullard]

Bolded...that makes no logical sense. Let's not redefine what actual words mean to try and fit them into an industry that doesn't really work within those actual definitions.

"survival of the fittest!" (no one who uses this in popular culture actually understands what "fit" means)

...I get what you're saying but "truth" is the wrong word. I don't think it really applies to explaining overall how the market works, if only in the sense that the only "truth" is that there is no truth?

I think most people also don't understand the "survival" part either. It means part of your DNA will continue on, not that you yourself will survive.

I do understand that ponyo is going for humor here. But, for me, there is one truth for any topic. It is our job to discover it. A better (but longer) comparison would be to say the market is the prosecutor, judge, and jury while it simultaneously rewrites the rules, policies, and laws--deal with it.

 

[brianmanahan]

fixed it for you.

i wish, right now i'm in an expensive apartment that could be paying for a nice house

of course i'm not tied down any longer than 6 months at a time, but still

 

[Svnla]

Anyone is familiar with WireCard? $2.1 BILLION USD is either missing or never exists, therefore, the stock is less than $10 after the high of about $58 last week. Unbelievable.

 

[IEC]

Anyone is familiar with WireCard? $2.1 BILLION USD is either missing or never exists, therefore, the stock is less than $10 after the high of about $58 last week. Unbelievable.

Markus Braun, the former CEO who resigned last week, was arrested/turned himself into authorities on Monday. The case was brought by a German city prosecutor and not by BaFin, the German regulatory agency. Expect more accounting "irregularities" to come to light.

WSJ article:

Wirecard’s Former CEO Markus Braun Is Arrested

Markus Braun was arrested and released on bail, days after the German payments company revealed a $2 billion hole in its books.

www.wsj.com

 

[Svnla]

Markus Braun, the former CEO who resigned last week, was arrested/turned himself into authorities on Monday. The case was brought by a German city prosecutor and not by BaFin, the German regulatory agency. Expect more accounting "irregularities" to come to light.

WSJ article:

Wirecard’s Former CEO Markus Braun Is Arrested

Markus Braun was arrested and released on bail, days after the German payments company revealed a $2 billion hole in its books.

www.wsj.com

Until recently, I don't think I ever hear about this company and I am a fairly active participant in the investment world.

The question is would there be more bombshells like this sooner than later? Over $2 billion USD "cheating/scam/???"? Goodness where are the compliant and internal/external audit folks?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nothing to learn, Jpow teaches you all in 1 easy point:
1. Stonks only go up
2. See #1

The government and Federal Reserve have been actively involved in manipulating the stock market upwards since 2008. There was an attempt to ween the markets off the government's tit starting in 2015 and going full swing with Jay Powell at the helm of the Fed.

First Janet Yellen signaled the tapering and eventual end of the buying of mortgage and government bonds. Then Jay Powell began a series of several quarter point rate increases. At first the market reacted negatively, it was referred to as "taper tantrums".

After Powell started raising rates, it got to the point we were headed toward normal rate policy ("normalization") and the classic market reaction "good news is bad news" phenomena returned. Fears over the size and scope ABOVE well telegraphed signals of Fed tightening policy caused big market drops when data was better than expected.

All the while, Trump was ramping up a major trade war with China. This, combined with successive rate hikes, caused a rather large market correction nearing 20% in Q3 2018. The Fed, fearing they had gone too far, began to signal a pause in hikes. They also had concerns about decreased trade activety and its effect on the economy and unemployment.

the Fed cut rates rates twice ("insurance rate cuts") and Trump reached a "phase 1 trade deal" with China, and the market surpassed all time highs, lasting through January 2020.

 

[FelixDeCat]

In January 2020 reports of a of major viral infection in China were reported. The market fell a percent but mostly dismissed the news. The market continued to be mostly dismissive with a few 3-5% pullbacks through the fist week of February as the situation worsened in China. The selloffs were followed by rallies within days. The situation was compared to the SARS outbreak which was mostly contained.

Once news the virus was beginning to spread outside China, which had already locked down the first signs of panic began. The market began a series of major pullbacks, followed by equally strong rallies as people continued to "buy the dip". The market would drop 7% and rally back up the same percent the next day.

Now the virus was clearly in America and areas considered immune were showing signs of major infection. The markets were now in free fell mode. The fed cut rates drastically but not to zero, and began to intervene to stabilize treasury and mortgage markets which had began to freeze when bid/ask prices became irrational.

Major cities nationwide began to shutdown as COVID spread, people began to die in large numbers and we understood how dangerous it was. All markets behaved irrationally. The market was nearing a 39% correction, with some massive swings upward nearing 10%, followed by sharp legs lower as people dumped ALL asset types including gold and especially oil.

Speaking of oil, Saudi Arabia and Russia launched a price war in oil, dumping massive quantities on the market despite lockdowns and nobody buying gasoline. Oil plunged towards ZERO and eventually went NEGATIVE, sparking a further market decline as already beatin down energy companies were now pricing in bankruptcy.

The Fed cut rates to zero and announced massive support and bond buying programs. It became the buyer of last resort in an attempt to keep a steady bid into corporate bond markets, which feared massive defaults.The government began to inject trillions of dollars in stimulus spending and free "loans" to stabilize businesses and keep people employed. The markets began to rally sharply upwards.

Eventually most cities and states "reopened" and the market has now rallied to all time highs with the help of fed and government intervention.

 

[FelixDeCat]

(And now we peer into the future..)

The general election was close but not decisive. One party won and the other refused to acknowledge the results asking for the Supreme Court to intervene as happened in 2000. A recount and runoff election was called by many as chaos took over government. Nationwide rioting and protests began - again.

Political instability caused another major pullback in the stock market as the losing party refused to acknowledge the result and the market feared no more support until things stabilized politically.

No vaccine was available as of late 2020 and COVID continued to claim more victims. Although masks are used by most nationwide and all possible measures are taken to reduce infections, fear of getting sick forces many back in doors and working from home.

In late December 2020, a political breakthrough finally occurred in time for the winning party to be sworn in January 2021.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought some ALT. Just buy and hold. Speculative guess and insider buying.

Holy guacamole!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

lol, yesterday was down from record-breaking numbers of COVID breaking out...

Today we still have record numbers.... yet were significantly up? Go figure.


Next big factor is definitely going to be that jobs report next week.

 

[Svnla]

I am more concern what will happen after July 31st (no more extra $600 bonus for being unemployed), ending of several federal government programs such as no eviction. After that, then the end of the cash for jobs program for large companies such as airlines.

Too many obstacles and uncertainty = not good for the stock market.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I am more concern what will happen after July 31st (no more extra $600 bonus for being unemployed), ending of several federal government programs such as no eviction. After that, then the end of the cash for jobs program for large companies such as airlines.

Too many obstacles and uncertainty = not good for the stock market.

You're thinking too far ahead.

About 2 weeks into July they will have the next stimulus mostly ironed out.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ 230-239 next week.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Looks like today the market forgot about the record-breaking COVID cases numbers.

 

[ponyo]

TSLA breaking out again and in beast mode. It blasted through its all time high of $1,029 this morning. Still way cheaper than compared to something like Amazon. Tesla is growing way faster and has lower p/e than Amazon. Tesla market cap is still below $200 billion but maybe not for long. Tesla can grow 50% YoY for the next 10 years. Amazon has no chance of doing that.

 

[Svnla]

Tesla as a company is worth more than Exxon per Bloomberg.

 

[TXHokie]

Last day to place Tesla order with full self driving software today -- FSD goes up by $1000 tomorrow or 1 share of TSLA.