Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/square-sq-earnings-q2-2020.html

This is interesting. Square was to report its Q2 earnings after the close tomorrow. But because Bloomberg News reported the earnings numbers ahead of time, Square went ahead and released the earnings today. How does that happen? And the stock is up big afterhours after nice move yesterday and today. I sold my Square shares yesterday for very nice profit because I didn't want to hold through earnings. Doh!

Square was my other big position besides Tesla. I don't really talk about Square but it's a company I think has bright future just like Tesla. Square CashApp is growing like gangbusters, and I think Square will be eventually bigger and better than Paypal. I don't know Square will 10x or more like Tesla but Square should be able to 4 or 5x from current market cap.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Thoughts on a buy for Carnival / Royal Caribbean?

Are people getting restless and wanting to travel via boat again? Flights are starting to fill as well though obviously attendance is still down drastically (a lot of it is just less routes in general).

I was a big supporter of CCL and made a couple of bucks (not much). I decided to abandon the stock when the virus came back with Round 2, the CDC extended no sail orders and CCL started dumping ships and selling more stock to stay afloat.

Until we actually get to the distribution phase of vaccinations, I dont *think* a turn around is justified yet in cruise stocks. And being that the short ratios are high as well, probably not much money there either. Best just to avoid - for now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

And of course Sorrento, the stock I divorced at $5 has since done the impossible and nearly TRIPLED to $14 on one vaccine "breakthrough" after another. Even Cramer is on board with a Strong Buy rating (even though he trashed it as a "long shot" recently at $8). It was a great investment for the faithful, but I just cant shake the feeling something shady is going on. Who knows, it may go to $20+ one day but I wont own it.

And speaking of Biotechs.....NVAX was $155 at the close .... fell to $109 on a vaccine update after hours, then made a STUNNING RECOVERY to $180. I was just watching from the sidelines and did not trade it.

 

[KB]

Thoughts on a buy for Carnival / Royal Caribbean?

Are people getting restless and wanting to travel via boat again? Flights are starting to fill as well though obviously attendance is still down drastically (a lot of it is just less routes in general).

I got into CCL when it dropped low the first time, and sold for a decent profit, but won't be back in. The extended no-sail time, additional debt and stock sales means they will unlikely be back to their highs anytme soon if ever again. Although I do believe people can't wait to sail again, a recently re-opened cruise ship in Norway just had 40 cases, so we will need widespread adoption of a vaccine before the cruise ships become profitable.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I got into CCL when it dropped low the first time, and sold for a decent profit, but won't be back in. The extended no-sail time, additional debt and stock sales means they will unlikely be back to their highs anytme soon if ever again. Although I do believe people can't wait to sail again, a recently re-opened cruise ship in Norway just had 40 cases, so we will need widespread adoption of a vaccine before the cruise ships become profitable.

Theres always a chance Redditors and Robinhooders could run the stock up to over $20 again just for the heck of it, but you and I agree its not logical to own until the revenue comes back.

Millennials seem to have this magic power to make any stock any price these days and the herd follows.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Im going to call it -

While I like Gold and Silver, its currently overvalued short term. While it is true we are devaluing the dollar with no end in sight by constantly adding to (and never paying back) the national debt, I think people would rather buy things other than metals at this point. $2,000 is a shocker for most and tipping point for some. Unless you already have everything you could need or want, its likely you will by things other than gold or silver at these prices.

 

[ponyo]

Im going to call it -

While I like Gold and Silver, its currently overvalued short term. While it is true we are devaluing the dollar with no end in sight by constantly adding to (and never paying back) the national debt, I think people would rather buy things other than metals at this point. $2,000 is a shocker for most and tipping point for some. Unless you already have everything you could need or want, its likely you will by things other than gold or silver at these prices.

Physical gold and silver demand is through the roof. Higher prices bring in more buyers, not less. Look at the high premiums being charged and high buyback prices.

 

[Svnla]

Any of you put money into potential vaccine for the COVID19 virus? If a company (pharma/drug) can find the right vaccine, it could make billion and billion for years to come and its stock could go off the roof.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Physical gold and silver demand is through the roof. Higher prices bring in more buyers, not less. Look at the high premiums being charged and high buyback prices.

There could be more upside due to a chaotic election:

2020 has been a year of change. The world has been "woke" to bio-hazards lurking about. We are now collectively germophobic. That doesnt bother me much since I've always been that way.

The only other time I could remember this much change was just after 9-11. The US was "woke" to the fact is was no longer invincible. With enough funding, manpower and planning we could be attacked and terrorized at any time. As a result, banking laws changed, travel rules changed, lists were created of bad actors and agencies were re-organized and given new powers. The NSA was also given giant amounts of money. Over time they became nearly omnipotent monitoring most forms of electronic communication on Earth.

We are approaching what would be a normal process every 4 years in America - an election. Like Ive mentioned a few times in this thread, its going to be doozy. We have already seen this year that many people are ready to take to the streets in massive protests - armed protests - if things dont go they way they want.

In the Northwest you already have what appears to be a permanent protests going on. What they are rebelling against, Im not sure. Authority perhaps? But its already here.

While the uncertainty leading up to election day may continue to drive metal prices upwards, its also not a given. If you remember when the bottom fell out and panic selling hit the markets for a few weeks in March, people dumped ALL asset classes ....INCLUDING gold and silver.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Any of you put money into potential vaccine for the COVID19 virus? If a company (pharma/drug) can find the right vaccine, it could make billion and billion for years to come and its stock could go off the roof.

Yeah, that would explain the meteoric rise of Altimmune, Novavax, Moderna, Sorrento, Vaxart and even Kodak! Then theres also Pfizer, Johnson and Johnson, etc, etc, etc. Companies all over the world are chasing the same COVID dollars. And nearly all have claimed to have already developed various vaccines so far, some about to begin stage 3 trials in record time. They are even already gearing up to produce these vaccines assuming no side affects before stage 3 is even complete!

What people are starting realize however is that no one company is likely going to monopolize the market. Various vaccines will be distributed. If you are lucky, you will get one that wont have too many side effects.

It may also be a race to the bottom price wise. Moderna was the first to price their vaxes initially at $60 a dose and has since lowered yesterday by 40% to only $37 per dose. Two doses will be required per person.

Other companies have announced even lower prices, closer to $15-19 per dose. There are still big markets though, with some expecting to sell 300 MILLION doses or more. But I think in order to get the most support from the government and insurers, the lowest cost and most effective one will get the greatest amount of business. LOW MARGIN business.

Some of these COVID stocks have gained so much this year they are already pulling back. Moderna fell to $75 from $97, Vaxart fell to $10 from $17. Altimmune is at $25 from $35. The only two that are still gaining are Sorrento and Novavax....for now, and that could change.

 

[KB]

Any of you put money into potential vaccine for the COVID19 virus? If a company (pharma/drug) can find the right vaccine, it could make billion and billion for years to come and its stock could go off the roof.

I have JNJ, PFE and GSK, but any COVID vaccine is likely to be pocket-change for these companies. They already make numerous vaccines and there is very little margin to them.

 

[dullard]

I have JNJ, PFE and GSK, but any COVID vaccine is likely to be pocket-change for these companies. They already make numerous vaccines and there is very little margin to them.

Normally, I would agree with the very little margin comment. But Covid vaccines may be different.

Companies are already floating a price tag near the high end of many vaccines, $40/dose. No one knows the cost to produce a Covid vaccine, but most vaccines are usually in the $1/dose to $5/dose range to produce. Lets just simplify and assume it is $10/dose since this is new. So, that would be $30/dose profit.

Covid vaccine will be used worldwide, unlike many vaccines that are regional for regional diseases. Covid vaccine also might be very short lived, needing a booster every few months, unlike other vaccines that are done every few years (or in some cases, just once or twice in a lifetime).

Lets pretend it is a twice a year vaccine, used by half the world. That is 7.8 billion doses at maybe a $30/dose profit. That is a $234 billion potential. Of course, the profit will be lower in the resource poor regions of the world. Lets cut the profit in a third if much of the world is sold at cost. That leaves a very rough estimate of a $78 billion/year profit.

There will be multiple vaccine companies, so no one company will get all $78 billion. But, this is not pocket-change territory.

 

[ponyo]

There could be more upside due to a chaotic election:

2020 has been a year of change. The world has been "woke" to bio-hazards lurking about. We are now collectively germophobic. That doesnt bother me much since I've always been that way.

The only other time I could remember this much change was just after 9-11. The US was "woke" to the fact is was no longer invincible. With enough funding, manpower and planning we could be attacked and terrorized at any time. As a result, banking laws changed, travel rules changed, lists were created of bad actors and agencies were re-organized and given new powers. The NSA was also given giant amounts of money. Over time they became nearly omnipotent monitoring most forms of electronic communication on Earth.

We are approaching what would be a normal process every 4 years in America - an election. Like Ive mentioned a few times in this thread, its going to be doozy. We have already seen this year that many people are ready to take to the streets in massive protests - armed protests - if things dont go they way they want.

In the Northwest you already have what appears to be a permanent protests going on. What they are rebelling against, Im not sure. Authority perhaps? But its already here.

While the uncertainty leading up to election day may continue to drive metal prices upwards, its also not a given. If you remember when the bottom fell out and panic selling hit the markets for a few weeks in March, people dumped ALL asset classes ....INCLUDING gold and silver.

1) When stock market crashes, everything crashes, including metals. It happened in 2008. It happened past March 2020. It'll happen again in the future. People sell anything of value to raise cash to cover margin calls during any market crash. Metals are no exceptions.

2) Gold just broke through $2,000 psychological price barrier to a new all time high. You don't sell when the barrier is broken. You sell when it can't break the barrier and is turned back. Once it breaks though, you hold or add if you're aggressive trader because it's likely going even higher on another breakout. This is basic trading 101.

3) Silver was stuck in $14-$22 trading range for 6 years. When something is stuck in trading range for that long, it's like a tightly coiled spring. The longer it stays in the trading range, the tighter the coil. Once it breaks through and is released on the other side, be up or down, the bigger the move it will have. You saw that with Tesla when it was stuck in trading range between $200-$360 for 5 years before it broke out to crazy new heights. Again, this is trading 101.

4) Gold and silver will likely drop big when there's real vaccine or near 100% effective treatment for COVID-19. Until then, you ride the trend and see where it takes you. In this crazy market, anything is possible. When I was buying gold at $1,100, I could've bought all the bitcoin I wanted at $300. Never in my wildest dream did I think bitcoin would hit $20,000. Instead, I dreamed of $2,000 gold and $50 silver. I got my $2k gold. Let's see if I can get my $50 silver.

And you posted this on Jan 7, 2019.
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=threads/official-2019-stock-market-thread.2559396/post-39697421

When you posted that, TSLA was trading at around $320 and gold was around $1,280. I said why not both? If I was betting man, I would say TSLA will reach $3,000 before gold. But it's not out of possibility that both will reach it. I'll send you a hat to eat and record on video for us to see when TSLA hits $3k.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Sold off my ATVI for ~$87.20 this morning.

Was a blissful ride seeing it go up from my $40 buy days.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold off my ATVI for ~$87.20 this morning.

Was a blissful ride seeing it go up from my $40 buy days.

Congrats!

I used to have an ATI 800XT back in the day.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Back in Cleanspark for a trade 7.22.

 

[FelixDeCat]

1) When stock market crashes, everything crashes, including metals. It happened in 2008. It happened past March 2020. It'll happen again in the future. People sell anything of value to raise cash to cover margin calls during any market crash. Metals are no exceptions.

2) Gold just broke through $2,000 psychological price barrier to a new all time high. You don't sell when the barrier is broken. You sell when it can't break the barrier and is turned back. Once it breaks though, you hold or add if you're aggressive trader because it's likely going even higher on another breakout. This is basic trading 101.

3) Silver was stuck in $14-$22 trading range for 6 years. When something is stuck in trading range for that long, it's like a tightly coiled spring. The longer it stays in the trading range, the tighter the coil. Once it breaks through and is released on the other side, be up or down, the bigger the move it will have. You saw that with Tesla when it was stuck in trading range between $200-$360 for 5 years before it broke out to crazy new heights. Again, this is trading 101.

4) Gold and silver will likely drop big when there's real vaccine or near 100% effective treatment for COVID-19. Until then, you ride the trend and see where it takes you. In this crazy market, anything is possible. When I was buying gold at $1,100, I could've bought all the bitcoin I wanted at $300. Never in my wildest dream did I think bitcoin would hit $20,000. Instead, I dreamed of $2,000 gold and $50 silver. I got my $2k gold. Let's see if I can get my $50 silver.

And you posted this on Jan 7, 2019.
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=threads/official-2019-stock-market-thread.2559396/post-39697421

When you posted that, TSLA was trading at around $320 and gold was around $1,280. I said why not both? If I was betting man, I would say TSLA will reach $3,000 before gold. But it's not out of possibility that both will reach it. I'll send you a hat to eat and record on video for us to see when TSLA hits $3k.

Tesla doesn't have to hit $3k for me to admit that long term you were correct that it was a better long term investment. You are already up 5x on your money while gold has only doubled. That is why the market usually attracts more money long term than metals.

Now its time to watch Tesla go back to $300.

 

[dullard]

I've started moving to cash today. After moving much of my cash into mutual funds in mid-March (http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=threads/official-2020-stock-market-thread.2574789/post-40156766), I have gained enough to start taking profits. It wasn't a huge move, I moved only 22% of my retirement money from mutual funds to cash today. Also, since my wife's retirement account is unchanged, this really was just about a 10% total move for me to be less stock heavy. But I also moved all future contributions to cash.

I'll reevaluate if the market changes or after the election. Too much risk for my blood.

 

[repoman0]

Fiancee’s company stock up another 10% today, and has multiplied by ~9 since she started there five years ago after college. That’s AMD level

RSUs and ESPP have been pretty nice to her to say the least

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Fiancee’s company stock up another 10% today, and has multiplied by ~9 since she started there five years ago after college. That’s AMD level

RSUs and ESPP have been pretty nice to her to say the least

I've been selling my ESPP just to get the 15% discount + Price advantage. Free money.

Actually just sold some more today. I'd rather take a guaranteed win then wait for more economic instability.

 

[KB]

I've started moving to cash today. After moving much of my cash into mutual funds in mid-March (http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=threads/official-2020-stock-market-thread.2574789/post-40156766), I have gained enough to start taking profits. It wasn't a huge move, I moved only 22% of my retirement money from mutual funds to cash today. Also, since my wife's retirement account is unchanged, this really was just about a 10% total move for me to be less stock heavy. But I also moved all future contributions to cash.

I'll reevaluate if the market changes or after the election. Too much risk for my blood.

You get paid almost nothing to hoard cash and now you have to worry about when to get back in.
For my retirement accounts I just don't touch them. Long term they will grow and timing the market is a fools errand.

 

[dullard]

You get paid almost nothing to hoard cash and now you have to worry about when to get back in.
For my retirement accounts I just don't touch them. Long term they will grow and timing the market is a fools errand.

All true, but I do my stuff mostly on auto-pilot. No need to worry about timing. My stocks went up 44.4% to 57.3% in half a year. I was too heavily into stocks. The 401ks of my wife and I were at 93% stocks, which is just too much for just about anyone, let alone a couple that is mid-career. So, I rebalanced. If my balance gets out of whack again, I'll rebalance again in several months.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Back in Cleanspark for a trade 7.22.

Seacrest - out!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Thoughts on weed stocks?

Throughout this pandemic they have continued to go down, and even based on Trump presidency performance has been lackluster (likely from a republican admin that isn't exactly friendly with this industry).

2020 will likely result in a lot more democrats taking over across the US = more likely for weed to be more accepted and potentially decriminalized?


MJ is an Index fund of weed-stocks. Here is a graph for over the last 5 years:




Seems pretty logical for this to do a double once the pandemic clears out and the election is decided? Or am I completely wrong here?

 

[FelixDeCat]

^no rev growth in weed stocks atm, avoid