Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
It's up to you and whatever you're comfortable with.

Personally, with a 2.875% mortgage, I'm not putting put much into extra principle - because I'd rather let the market get a 5-7% average increase over saving that interest. Everyone has their own priorities in life though.

Timing the market sucks, but knowing that there is 10%+ unemployment - millions of people about to be evicted the moment they lose protection, and a ton of people that will lose unemployment benefits... I can't say right now is a great time for investing any large sums...

But that's just my 2 cents.
I'm locked in a low mortgage APR as well, but want to get rid of the payment. My wife is finally gearing up to throw some cash on the fire (so to speak), so I'm certainly not going to stop her. I understand the market has better returns than 2.49%, but we're both investing around 15% of our respective salaries already in retirement savings. With as many years to go as we both have, I think we'll be alright come retirement time. I just want to be 100% out of debt so our monthly expenditures will be low and I'll have that cash available for travel (in a few years), investments, and projects.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,211
3,622
126
Target surges 12% from blowout earnings. Jeez, never saw that coming....
$1200 + Unemployment benefits + $600/week extra = lots of money out there last quarter. But, all this extra cash will be gone in the next quarter. Which is the quarter that scares me. Throw in the election uncertainty and I just can't seem to want to get into the market right now.

Large, well-known companies, with (A) the ability to deliver and (B) have essentials to sell (groceries, cleaning supplies, etc) are doing quite well. Small, mom-and-pop stores that people don't trust online, don't have a presence online, or don't sell essentials are dying a quick death.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Target surges 12% from blowout earnings.

Jeez, never saw that coming....
I didn't. I was expecting Target to trade slightly flat or down after earnings. Why? Because Walmart, Home Depot, and Lowes all reported blowout earnings as well but yet the shares prices in those companies all went down or barely traded flat afterwards. Everyone already figured the big box retailers would all have very good to blowout earnings this quarter. That's no surprise and mostly all priced in. See, the market isn't stupid like you think it is.

But who expected Target shares to buck the trend and actually go up big after earnings regardless if they reported blowout earnings? Not too many people judging from today's option price movements. Target 8/21 $140 call option went up more than 600% today. The $150 call option went up almost 1,400%. That's 6 times your money with the more conservative $140 OTM call option at the close of yesterday and 14 times your money with far more speculative $150 OTM call option in a single day. So $10k in $140 call option would've gone to $60k and $10k in $150 call option would've gone to $140k. So if you saw the reaction to the Target earnings coming, you're complete moron for not betting everything on Target call options before the market close yesterday.

Now, if you had made the same kind of call options bet on Walmart, Home Depot, and Lowes, you would've lost 90% to 99% of your money. You've gotten IV crushed and the decline in the share prices would've killed with your call options along with theta. It's why playing earnings is such crap shoot and risky. You could know the exact earnings ahead of time via insider information but that won't guarantee you'll make money because the market reaction to the actual earnings news can be such random at times. But the reward for betting correctly via options can be so lucrative which is why so many degenerate gamblers still try to game quarterly earnings game when it's so hard.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
$1200 + Unemployment benefits + $600/week extra = lots of money out there last quarter. But, all this extra cash will be gone in the next quarter. Which is the quarter that scares me. Throw in the election uncertainty and I just can't seem to want to get into the market right now.

Large, well-known companies, with (A) the ability to deliver and (B) have essentials to sell (groceries, cleaning supplies, etc) are doing quite well. Small, mom-and-pop stores that people don't trust online, don't have a presence online, or don't sell essentials are dying a quick death.

It is already happening at Walmart.

 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I want to start an investment mix of stocks or ETFs this year to use prior to tapping into my retirement funds. Basically, I want to have the account available in case I need cash, but the real goal is for a bankroll for fun a few years down the road.

What should I be looking at? Should I stick to ETFs or particular stocks in the current market? I previously bought a few stocks, but out of the 2-3 where I've made money, I've had 2-3 positions I ditched with losses. (opportunity cost was worth more than 10-30% losses I faced) Anyhoo...I'm trying to jump in and figure index ETFs or dividend stocks are what I should look at. Any suggestions? I'm going to be continually investing in this account moving forward and have around $10k ready to drop in the market..just trying to decide if I should do it now or save more cash up and hold it for after November.
$10k? This guy is doing $10k to $50k challenge. But more like $10k to $0 challenge.


Now the retard is probably going to lose it all but that's what makes it fun. Wallstreetsbets is by far my favorite reddit subforum. They crack me up.
 

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
$10k? This guy is doing $10k to $50k challenge. But more like $10k to $0 challenge.


Now the retard is probably going to lose it all but that's what makes it fun. Wallstreetsbets is by far my favorite reddit subforum. They crack me up.
I'm talking $10k initial investment. I'm going to try to add $500 a month, but may hold cash until I see sizable drops in the market... I should be able to bump that up to $1000 a month next Spring and more once my mortgage is paid off... I'm looking long term index ETFs....10 years minimum probably. Eventually I may pull cash out and invest in some income properties, but need more cash to start. Trying to see where this leads and evaluate for change later.

I wish I could turn $10k into $50k...but really looking more to turning it into $22-24k over 10 years.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Looking at anything interesting, Felix?

My quarterly dividends are all in and I think I want to put some of the money into stocks.

A lot of my ideas are quick trades. I know you like to have a longer term outlook and so far you are doing very good!

I got back in Clean Spark again today with an average price of 1200@12.40. I sold 12 Friday exp $12.50 call for $816. Net profit for this trade by Friday will be $936.00, unless it goes back under $12.50, in which case Ill cover short calls.

Clean Spark has done pretty good this year. Basically they sell components and software to manage electric grids. They sell primarily to military and commercial customers. They are trying to get away from low margin competent sales and become strictly a SAAS (software as a service) play. They compete with the big boys like Lockheed Martin and General Electric. The software sold by the competition only runs on systems sold and developed by the provider of the hardware. CLSK's edge is that their software is not proprietary and can run on any mixed electric grid to provide optimal power use between solar, wind, battery and conventional power sources.

The stock has risen from $2.50 to nearly $13.75. The chart is pretty. Current market cap is $230M/17M shares, they have already raised capital and claim to have enough until the end of 2021, but have stated they can issue additional shares if an opportunity to grow presents itself in the future.

I have traded it here and there on and off and keep it on my watch list. I personally think it has a lot of gains to digest. It tends to run up 20-30% at a time then pull back 10-15% before going back up 20-30%. I have seen the number $22 thrown around here and there but I want to see more sales to justify that kind of price. I think $10 is fair. For now, I just keep trading it.

Up until two weeks ago, there were no options on this stock. Since trading volume has increased and popularity in the name is growing, options have been added. And they are pretty rich. But they are 30 day options, not weekly.

~~

Other than that, I am short Carnival for a trade as well.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Of course you can also jump on the Apple/Tesla/nVidia/Amazon bandwagon like the rest of the planet already has. Mega caps take mega money. Id rather buy something like the QQQs to participate. I do not think all time highs will be over until QQQ nears $300. Currently $276.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Well, after buying the APPL I had like $2200 cash left in one of my accounts. It just seemed too perfect. And it'll split in to 5 baby shares.

I'm assuming I'll let it sit for a few decades. Even if something happens with TSLA its only 2 grand. It won't affect my retirement plans if anything goes bust. Maybe if I'm lucky enough to live that long in good heath it'll be worth $5000-$6000 and I can take a trip somewhere fancy. All because I bought that lonely little share.

Funny - I've never been through a split in my investing life and now I've got two little ones coming.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
lol I guess stock sites are moron proof. I've been typing in app and apple comes up.

Schwab must have done the same thing. I assume I typed in APPL and it automatically directed me to AAPL.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
So I have a question for anyone who's been through a split:

I read that tomorrow is the last day for TSLA stock owners to get the split, and the 31st is when you get the additional shares.

What happens during the next week? Will the stock be listed at the split price starting Monday?
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
So I have a question for anyone who's been through a split:

I read that tomorrow is the last day for TSLA stock owners to get the split, and the 31st is when you get the additional shares.

What happens during the next week? Will the stock be listed at the split price starting Monday?
The split price will be starting Monday the 31st. Not this coming Monday. Starting next Monday, the shares will still trade at current full price but if you sell your TSLA share, the buyer will get 4 shares of IOU along with your share. The IOU won't be effective until Monday the 31st. You won't have to worry as your broker will handle all that in the background if you buy or sell TSLA shares next week.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Ok, I guess that makes sense.

Just for next week - If I sell my share the buyer is getting 5 shares but won't receive individualized post split shares until the 31st.

Any buyer who wants to buy TSLA shares next week has to still buy them in blocks of 5. As of the week after that anyone can buy TSLA shares at the post split price.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I think we're going to get Tesla S&P news in the next 2 weeks. Why? Elon tweeted some interesting things yesterday and today. He sometimes leaves clues in his tweet.


He said "Elevator music is underrated."

What does this mean? Well he said Tesla will release software update that allows you to broadcast any sound to outside your car as it's moving slow. He said even elevator music.

But if we analyze and think deeper, what does elevator do? Why it goes up! Elevator music means stock price is going or about to go up.

Then today he tweeted this.


It's a picture of a snake and what looks like a saxophone. But it's not a saxophone because there is a snake. It's a pungi which is a wind instrument played by snake charmers. So now the picture makes sense. Snake and Pungi. Or S&P.

Musk is hinting S&P announcement is imminent. I think Tesla is splitting the stock 5 for 1 to give some liquidity for the S&P addition and right after the split, the S&P announcement will be made. So maybe S&P announcement will be made on Monday August 31. If not, it's going to happen very soon.
 

manlymatt83

Lifer
Oct 14, 2005
10,053
44
91
Do you all keep separate brokerage accounts for different allocations or strategies, or just use a single account and a spreadsheet?

For example, “play funds” vs “set and forget index”.
 

Amol S.

Platinum Member
Mar 14, 2015
2,397
709
136
Overall news of COVID market EUR/USD at all year high, Kuwati Dinner/ USD no difference, Trump claims economy is back up and running and the US stock market is rising once again.

Todays news, EUR/USD down by almost 0.01! Kuwati Dinner/USD still not much difference. No news yet from trump regarding economy today.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
The split price will be starting Monday the 31st. Not this coming Monday. Starting next Monday, the shares will still trade at current full price but if you sell your TSLA share, the buyer will get 4 shares of IOU along with your share. The IOU won't be effective until Monday the 31st. You won't have to worry as your broker will handle all that in the background if you buy or sell TSLA shares next week.

I was debating over whether or not to buy a couple of shares before the split and the lock-in so that I could get my 5x shares....but damn it's so expensive for me (I don't have ponyo money), and figured that it just makes sense to wait until after the split. I mean, it's essentially the same total value, on that day, with effectively the same number of shares. Or at least, with little money, I should expect to be able to afford more shares after the split (that's the point, right?) so that if the plan is to just hold forever and it goes well above its current value anyway, you end up with more shares? ....ah, but it's the same total cost either way, so what's the difference?

It's simple and it still confuses me. Meanwhile, the price just keeps skyrocketing. Today's the last day for lock in, hence the run, I guess. I had already told myself to wait until the split anyway, so I guess I will do that.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Do you all keep separate brokerage accounts for different allocations or strategies, or just use a single account and a spreadsheet?

For example, “play funds” vs “set and forget index”.

I do. It's cleaner that way.

I was debating over whether or not to buy a couple of shares before the split and the lock-in so that I could get my 5x shares....but damn it's so expensive for me (I don't have ponyo money), and figured that it just makes sense to wait until after the split. I mean, it's essentially the same total value, on that day, with effectively the same number of shares. Or at least, with little money, I should expect to be able to afford more shares after the split (that's the point, right?) so that if the plan is to just hold forever and it goes well above its current value anyway, you end up with more shares? ....ah, but it's the same total cost either way, so what's the difference?

It's simple and it still confuses me. Meanwhile, the price just keeps skyrocketing. Today's the last day for lock in, hence the run, I guess. I had already told myself to wait until the split anyway, so I guess I will do that.

It's such a mental game in these times. I've tried to adjust my train of thought to match that emotion.

I bought before the split because I figured retail investors are likely to pile in at a cheaper share price. So far Ive been correct: My 25 shares of AAPL and 1 share of TSLA are up almost $1500.

Am I correct long term? Who knows.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
A share of Tesla gained $500 for less than a week while I am still waiting for my old stock to go back up to $80's/share (its highest pricing) for the last couple years.
 
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