Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
And of course Sorrento, the stock I divorced at $5 has since done the impossible and nearly TRIPLED to $14 on one vaccine "breakthrough" after another. Even Cramer is on board with a Strong Buy rating (even though he trashed it as a "long shot" recently at $8). It was a great investment for the faithful, but I just cant shake the feeling something shady is going on. Who knows, it may go to $20+ one day but I wont own it.

So in about 6 business days, Sorrento jumps from 11 to 20 (after hours). Wow.

Yet I still dont understand why. All they are trading on is hype and promises. Thats all it takes these days.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
I bought 2000 more shares of SRNE a while ago at 4.77.

Sold a round of calls at 6 - nothing happened. So I sold another round at 7 for Sept. Obviously it looks like they'll get exercised.

I've made good money on SRNE but the potential profit I've lost is pretty staggering (Over $30,000 on these shares alone). But I always tell myself: The reason you've been fairly successful in the market is that you stick to your plan and play it safe. But I've gotta learn to hold at least some stocks without selling options on them.

So I bought 25 shares of APPL today. I'm just going to forget I have them. They'll turn into 100 shares next month and maybe, if I'm lucky, they'll split a few more times before I retire. A guy can hope.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Welcome back Dasher!

As I said earlier, its amazing how much Sorrento has run up. Remember when it was a $3 stock earlier this year and the best shareholders were hoping to get was $5? Now it hit $20 after hours and some fanatical longs think $100 is possible. I remain skeptical and plan to stay on the sidelines for now. Maybe it does hit $25, 50 or 100 or cools off to $10. Who knows.

Sometimes, when I get thirsty, I like to sip on this:



Thanks btw!
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Hi Felix. Things have been going pretty well lately (probably for almost everyone).

I found a good thing in Seagate (STX). Even though it's not too volatile and the juicy dividend is safe some options buyers seem to be betting of a fall. So I keep selling them puts and collecting
(almost $6000 so far). I don't mind getting put the stock at a low price so not too much stress involved.

lol I'll just keep going to the well until it dries up.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Tesla doesn't have to hit $3k for me to admit that long term you were correct that it was a better long term investment. You are already up 5x on your money while gold has only doubled. That is why the market usually attracts more money long term than metals.

Now its time to watch Tesla go back to $300.

Tesla is going back to $300!


...after a 5 for 1 stock split.
 
Reactions: ponyo

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Tesla is going back to $300!


...after a 5 for 1 stock split.
Tesla is going to $420 again. That's the only reason Elon split the stock. So he can relive the $420 moment. That's $2,100 presplit for the math challenged.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
S+P 500 is down less than 1%. And Tesla is more valuable than Toyota? From less than $20/share in 2010 to $1.5K lately.

In other news, Chase has the lowest APR for 30 years mortgage vs. other big names . I just check and it is 2.837% if you have good credit score (upper 700), 20% down, and the home is $400K or less. Damn temptation to pull the trigger for a house, then a wife (have to be in that order from what I heard).
 
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bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
If only Nvidia would split....I've been long since 06
I jumped into a couple shares of Tesla in my HSA account at 500 a piece when the market caught the covid.
And not likely, but I'd love AMD to pull an Nvidia I'd be a very, very happy man.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Tesla just announced a 5 for 1 stock split. Nice!
They needed to do it because too many retards only look at the stock price and not the market cap of a company. So now in their mind, Tesla will no longer be expensive since it's down to $300 instead of $1,500.

But this will make TSLA stock and options far more accessible to regular retail investors. Not too many retail can buy options that cost like $30,000 for a single contract like TSLA.

Personally, I'm looking forward to TSLA hitting $420.69 again.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
They needed to do it because too many retards only look at the stock price and not the market cap of a company. So now in their mind, Tesla will no longer be expensive since it's down to $300 instead of $1,500.

But this will make TSLA stock and options far more accessible to regular retail investors. Not too many retail can buy options that cost like $30,000 for a single contract like TSLA.

Personally, I'm looking forward to TSLA hitting $420.69 again.

Well... the stock valuation will still look completely crack smoking insane from a P/E ratio either way. Not that I'm really worried about that anymore... I brought in around $355 during the dip and sold half of my stake around $900. Owning TSLA stock might still be a gamble, but I'm totally playing with house money at this point.

That said, Tesla still has a solid 5 year lead over the other automakers when it comes to electric vehicles. That's gotta be worth something extra.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Well... the stock valuation will still look completely crack smoking insane from a P/E ratio either way. Not that I'm really worried about that anymore... I brought in around $355 during the dip and sold half of my stake around $900. Owning TSLA stock might still be a gamble, but I'm totally playing with house money at this point.

That said, Tesla still has a solid 5 year lead over the other automakers when it comes to electric vehicles.
If you look at P/E for growth company like TSLA, you will never buy in and will miss out on the best years of stock price appreciation and growth. You know how many times I've heard the P/E of some growth company was too expensive? I've heard the same exact stupid arguments for Microsoft in the early 1990s, Starbucks in the late 1990s, Google in the early 2000s, Amazon in the 2010s., etc. All growth companies will have stupid P/E during their growth cycle. It's because these companies sacrifice profit for hyper growth. They rather grow faster than try to maximize short term profit and pay excess short term taxes. Elon has basically said they're not trying to make excess profit right now. His goal is to have as close to $0 profit as possible while putting all the resources into growing faster. Which is absolutely the correct move. That's far more important than profit at this point. You worry about P/E when Tesla is selling close to 20 million cars a year which they will around 2030. When Tesla is selling 20 million cars, they will make so much money that it will blow your mind. Then all the stupid idiots who were screaming about how Tesla has absurd P/E now will buy TSLA stock because it will then have normal 20 P/E while TSLA stock after the split is worth like $1,200 or $1 trillion market cap. They will have missed all the big stock price appreciation and growth.

I'm back in TSLA in huge way with stock and options. The stock split will carry us til the end of this month. Next month, the focus will shift to S&P 500 inclusion. I'm looking for mega payday.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
In other news, Chase has the lowest APR for 30 years mortgage vs. other big names . I just check and it is 2.837% if you have good credit score (upper 700), 20% down, and the home is $400K or less. Damn temptation to pull the trigger for a house, then a wife (have to be in that order from what I heard).

We are currently in the closing process on a new home (our first). Hopefully all goes well, but as of right now we are locked into a 30-year at 2.83% APR (no points).

Less than two years ago rates almost hit 5%. The ~10-12% that home prices may have increased since then are completely washed out by the reduced rate. I did a quick calculation, and at least for SoCal here's a rough breakdown:

2018: $900K home, 20% down, 4.75% mortgage rate + 1% property tax ~= $1.622M paid over 30 years
2020: $1M home, 20% down, 2.75% mortgage rate + 1% property tax ~= $1.475M paid over 30 years
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
If you look at P/E for growth company like TSLA, you will never buy in and will miss out on the best years of stock price appreciation and growth. You know how many times I've heard the P/E of some growth company was too expensive? I've heard the same exact stupid arguments for Microsoft in the early 1990s, Starbucks in the late 1990s, Google in the early 2000s, Amazon in the 2010s., etc. All growth companies will have stupid P/E during their growth cycle. It's because these companies sacrifice profit for hyper growth. They rather grow faster than try to maximize short term profit and pay excess short term taxes. Elon has basically said they're not trying to make excess profit right now. His goal is to have as close to $0 profit as possible while putting all the resources into growing faster. Which is absolutely the correct move. That's far more important than profit at this point. You worry about P/E when Tesla is selling close to 20 million cars a year which they will around 2030. When Tesla is selling 20 million cars, they will make so much money that it will blow your mind. Then all the stupid idiots who were screaming about how Tesla has absurd P/E now will buy TSLA stock because it will then have normal 20 P/E while TSLA stock after the split is worth like $1,200 or $1 trillion market cap. They will have missed all the big stock price appreciation and growth.
Your point is valid, but it is missing one vital piece of information. The cost to sell a unit of an item for Microsoft, Starbucks, and Google is nearly $0. The costs for those companies are all front-loaded. For example, the cost to sell an additional coffee is almost nothing, maybe a couple pennies. But the cost to build the Starbucks store, develop demand, train employees, etc is massive. Some goes with Microsoft, the cost to sell another copy of Windows is almost nothing. Or Google, the cost to sell another ad is nothing compared to the costs to build up the infrastructure to sell the ad to the proper person. At any moment, those companies could flip a switch and go from high up-front costs to nearly no costs and keep selling at large profits. Their P/E can go from massive to reasonable overnight.

Telsa can't just flip a switch. Building cars will always be expensive. Sure, they can stop building battery factories and drop the costs a bit. But, Tesla cannot behave like those companies you mentioned, since it will never be able to get its costs of another car down to near $0. It simply isn't a apples to apples comparison.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Your point is valid, but it is missing one vital piece of information. The cost to sell a unit of an item for Microsoft, Starbucks, and Google is nearly $0. The costs for those companies are all front-loaded. For example, the cost to sell an additional coffee is almost nothing, maybe a couple pennies. But the cost to build the Starbucks store, develop demand, train employees, etc is massive. Some goes with Microsoft, the cost to sell another copy of Windows is almost nothing. Or Google, the cost to sell another ad is nothing compared to the costs to build up the infrastructure to sell the ad to the proper person. At any moment, those companies could flip a switch and go from high up-front costs to nearly no costs and keep selling at large profits. Their P/E can go from massive to reasonable overnight.

Telsa can't just flip a switch. Building cars will always be expensive. Sure, they can stop building battery factories and drop the costs a bit. But, Tesla cannot behave like those companies you mentioned, since it will never be able to get its costs of another car down to near $0. It simply isn't a apples to apples comparison.
Tesla definitely can act like those companies. Manufacturing autos have high fixed costs. But once you get it up to scale, all the extra cars are just gravy once you cover the massive fixed cost. Economies of scale matter greatly in manufacturing. Also, Tesla will have software like revenues for part of their business. FSD, apps, OTA performance upgrade purchases will have software margin and will be massive in the future. And we're just talking about autos. Tesla is going to transform autos and energy.
 

TXHokie

Platinum Member
Nov 16, 1999
2,557
173
106
Tesla isn't just about electric cars....that's like saying Amazon is just about online shopping and completely ignoring the huge AWS cloud business. But if we're just going to look at cars, the manufacturing improvements on Tesla cars have been insane. Outside they all look the same but the innards have gone thru many cycles of improvement and iteration to reduce cost and improve quality. Just look at the massive casting machine they are about to put in that will replace hundreds/thousands of parts and labor to assemble the body/frame, it'll be like cranking out Matchbox cars. They will get the cost of manufacturing down further with building and controlling every part of the cars themselves from batteries to software to even designing their own chip. There will be very exciting "machines to build the machines" when the Berlin factory comes online and the Austin factory next year.
Disclaimer: I do own Tesla stocks and am banking on Elon to help me retire early in the next 10 years.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Maybe my SRNE won't get called away? Meh I still lost out on a ton of profit.

I think SRNE should be right around $8.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I know lot of you don't know much about Tesla and just think TSLA is extremely overvalued stock. I thought the same years ago because that's all I heard from the likes of CNBC and other financial trash news outlets. But after I purchased small position in 2018, I did actual research into TSLA and Elon and found the complete opposite and how extremely undervalued TSLA stock was. Since then, I've often said TSLA was the most undervalued stock and company in the entire Nasdaq. But with the run up in the TSLA stock price the past year, they're no longer the most undervalued but still quite undervalued given their potential.

I follow Rob Maurer with Tesla Daily and he just did good video on TSLA bull case. Everything he said in the video I already knew because I did my own calculations and research after I bought the stock and found the numbers pretty close to what Rob describes. Rob is talking with Northwestern MBA students and it's long 1 1/2 hour video. You don't have to watch the entire video but in the early part of the video he explains TSLA bull case and why TSLA stock price is what it is today and why institutional investors have come to embrace TSLA once they did their own research. If you're even thinking about investing in TSLA or want to know why TSLA might be worthy of investment, this video gives good primer on where Tesla is today and what it will become in 10 years.
 
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