Discussion ***Official*** 2020 Stock Market Thread

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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
I think I've made up my mind. I'm going to replace the ABBV puts with NVDA puts.

What sucks is that NVDA popped to over $500 today. Yesterday I could have sold 2 NVDA October puts at $400 for like $2000. Now they're down to under $1000.

It's going to cost more to play.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I was debating over whether or not to buy a couple of shares before the split and the lock-in so that I could get my 5x shares....but damn it's so expensive for me (I don't have ponyo money), and figured that it just makes sense to wait until after the split. I mean, it's essentially the same total value, on that day, with effectively the same number of shares. Or at least, with little money, I should expect to be able to afford more shares after the split (that's the point, right?) so that if the plan is to just hold forever and it goes well above its current value anyway, you end up with more shares? ....ah, but it's the same total cost either way, so what's the difference?

It's simple and it still confuses me. Meanwhile, the price just keeps skyrocketing. Today's the last day for lock in, hence the run, I guess. I had already told myself to wait until the split anyway, so I guess I will do that.
I think you'll get better entry point than the current price sometime in the future if you're looking to buy for long term hold. Tesla stock is volatile so it's going to have like 25-50% swings every once in awhile. Right now, traders are playing TSLA for the S&P inclusion so the price is high. I expect prices to go even higher before coming back down after the S&P addition.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Well thats a fine how-do-you-do!

The US mint will change the reverse of the Silver and Gold eagle bullion coins for the first time since 1986. Several candidate designs are being considered. All I can say is I hope they pick a design and stick with it.

2020 will be the last year for the classic reverse "Family of Eagles" for gold and "Heraldic Eagle" for silver bullion.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
....what a day....Covid plays slammed..

SRNE down 20% to $8
INO down 14% to $12
VXRT down 13.5% to $7.10
NVAX down 13.3% to $119. Was $185 two weeks ago!
ALT down 9% to $21.89

Moderna fared much better considering the slaughter, it was only down 2% to $65. But its off its 52 week of $95.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread there are going to be too many players chasing the same low margin Covid dollars. And it will be a race to the bottom. Profit is profit however, so who knows where these stocks are a year from now.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Crazy NIO to $17.50 on upgrade from long time bear from $1 to $16.

QQQ quickly approaching $300 price target. Close $286. I was thinking October, but its getting there very fast. If it hits $300, it me be range bound until after the election.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Crazy NIO to $17.50 on upgrade from long time bear from $1 to $16.

QQQ quickly approaching $300 price target. Close $286. I was thinking October, but its getting there very fast. If it hits $300, it me be range bound until after the election.

I was going to buy some NIO. I figured the news of the swappable battery pack and accelerated global expansion would pop it. But alas I didn't. Right in line with my recent decision making.

The only thing I've done is sell Oct Tegna 11 puts. 30 contracts worth for about $1400. I think its pretty safe.

Oh, BTW - I messed up on what I posted about my SRNE calls. I had one for Aug and one for sept instead of 2 for sept. I'm not sure why I did that but whatever. Maybe the virus is turning my brain mushy. So my SNRNE account here is up to about $13000. If the Sept 7s get exercised I'll be up to like $17000.

I might owe you another bottle of something if this keeps up.
 

Chaptorial

Member
Feb 7, 2010
157
9
81
TSLA got a price upgrade from Jefferies this morning to $2500 a share. I bought a stake in TSLA at around $500 a share, in no small part to the recommendations in this thread. Have held it since and it‘s been a pretty remarkable run. A correction in this market is sure to come but i have no plans to sell and expect to hold this and AAPL for a long time.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
Anyone think solar stocks could become a play again with TSLA leading the market? The climate crisis is getting a lot more attention now, and a company like FSLR that seemed dead for a while could now all of a sudden be reaching ~9 year highs.

I just closed on a new home that has Tesla panels and I'm ordering a Tesla Powerwall upgrade for it so my home becomes entirely grid independent. It's amazing technology and this is exactly the kind of decentralized energy generation our world needs. And the kicker is that it's not even expensive (at least in SoCal where there's a lot of sun). It's $0 to install/maintain them, and usually the monthly rental fee is <= otherwise electricity costs. I just love how you can generate power and feed it back into the grid as well.
 
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Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Anyone think solar stocks could become a play again with TSLA leading the market? The climate crisis is getting a lot more attention now, and a company like FSLR that seemed dead for a while could now all of a sudden be reaching ~9 year highs.

I just closed on a new home that has Tesla panels and I'm ordering a Tesla Powerwall upgrade for it so my home becomes entirely grid independent. It's amazing technology and this is exactly the kind of decentralized energy generation our world needs. And the kicker is that it's not even expensive (at least in SoCal where there's a lot of sun). It's $0 to install/maintain them, and usually the monthly rental fee is <= otherwise electricity costs. I just love how you can generate power and feed it back into the grid as well.

To be honest, of all renewable energy sources - I *PERSONALLY* think solar is BY FAR the worst one.

Wind, Hydro, nuclear.... and even renewable fuels are going to get more attention than solar.

Heh, I feel bad for the people in my area that bought solar roof stuff - this hurricane is going to annihilate them.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
If those people have batteries connected to their panels (which totally makes sense in Florida given the extreme weather) they won't need to worry about power outages. Because by turning off all unnecessary appliances, computers, and limiting the use of lights, a home can survive off a Powerwall system for days. Sure there's oldschool generators, but TSLA's system is automated and millennials and zoomers need automation. Plus it's got this fancy app, again - a demographics thing.

But if a cat4-5 hurricane rolls through and destroys the panels, they've probably got bigger problems to worry about. I don't think TSLA would be producing panels that couldn't withstand hurricane forces - it'd be pretty costly for them to rent in Florida. But then again I don't know if panel rental cost varies much by state. It could be cheap in California and expensive in Florida for all I know.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
TSLA got a price upgrade from Jefferies this morning to $2500 a share. I bought a stake in TSLA at around $500 a share, in no small part to the recommendations in this thread. Have held it since and it‘s been a pretty remarkable run. A correction in this market is sure to come but i have no plans to sell and expect to hold this and AAPL for a long time.
Congrats! TSLA is once in a generation stock and company. This decade and next will belong to Tesla. Just like people who never sold Apple stock but kept accumulating more shares every time AAPL stock dropped 30-50%, I think the same will be true with TSLA this decade. TSLA will have many 30-50% selloffs. But you buy and don't sell. TSLA will become $1 trillion company this decade. And next decade, it might hit $2 trillion. There's not a company in the stock market right now that has brighter future than TSLA. They are going to own the automotive, energy, and AI market. All those markets are multi-trillion dollar markets. Because those markets are so large is why people are going so crazy over TSLA now. People are starting to see Tesla's vision and massive potential.

Anyone think solar stocks could become a play again with TSLA leading the market? The climate crisis is getting a lot more attention now, and a company like FSLR that seemed dead for a while could now all of a sudden be reaching ~9 year highs.

I just closed on a new home that has Tesla panels and I'm ordering a Tesla Powerwall upgrade for it so my home becomes entirely grid independent. It's amazing technology and this is exactly the kind of decentralized energy generation our world needs. And the kicker is that it's not even expensive (at least in SoCal where there's a lot of sun). It's $0 to install/maintain them, and usually the monthly rental fee is <= otherwise electricity costs. I just love how you can generate power and feed it back into the grid as well.
Clean energy is going to become huge this decade and next. IMO, all new houses will have solar roofs in the next 10 years. Rising tide will lift all boats just like TSLA is lifting all EV stocks at the moment. Same is true with solar and I think once TSLA starts scaling with solar and energy, all other solar and clean energy stocks will benefit and ride the wave with Tesla. Elon has repeated said he thinks energy will be just as big if not bigger than Tesla EV autos and going to grow crazy this decade. I believe it. I think TSLA solar roofs, Powerwall, Megapacks, and Autobidder will lead the market. The energy market just like the ICE auto market is ripe for disruption and I think power and utilities as how we know it will be forever changed.

I'm playing all this through TSLA. I don't really believe in diversifying. I'm supremely confident Tesla will be the ultimate winner so I don't need to bet on 2nd place horse.

PS. Congrats on your new house! I'm still waiting on Tesla to enter Georgia market for solar and energy. I have Tesla Solar roof and three Powerwalls on order. But I need a new roof soon, and I don't know if I can wait on Tesla to enter Georgia market much longer. I might have to just get regular new roof and add Tesla solar panels later when Tesla starts installing in GA. But I really want Tesla new solar roof vs solar panels. First world problem I guess.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
To be honest, of all renewable energy sources - I *PERSONALLY* think solar is BY FAR the worst one.

Wind, Hydro, nuclear.... and even renewable fuels are going to get more attention than solar.

Heh, I feel bad for the people in my area that bought solar roof stuff - this hurricane is going to annihilate them.
And I *PERSONALLY* think you're completely WRONG. But that's what makes a market.

Tesla is about to turn boring and safe utility world upside down with their solar, battery, and Autobidder AI technology.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Im all out for now. When NFLX, FB and TSLA can all go up 7-12% today alone on no news, no upgrades and no earnings...something doesn't add up.

Even a giant megacap like Apple is up 40% in 60 days and another mega like Salesfarce is up 25% today alone..kinda seems like the opposite of what we saw in March.

In March it was sell everything at all costs. Now its buy everything at any cost.

Two extremes, neither may turn out to be correct.

Edit: Long term we will obviously go higher but short term looks overstretched.
 
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bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
I was debating over whether or not to buy a couple of shares before the split and the lock-in so that I could get my 5x shares....but damn it's so expensive for me (I don't have ponyo money), and figured that it just makes sense to wait until after the split. I mean, it's essentially the same total value, on that day, with effectively the same number of shares. Or at least, with little money, I should expect to be able to afford more shares after the split (that's the point, right?) so that if the plan is to just hold forever and it goes well above its current value anyway, you end up with more shares? ....ah, but it's the same total cost either way, so what's the difference?

It's simple and it still confuses me. Meanwhile, the price just keeps skyrocketing. Today's the last day for lock in, hence the run, I guess. I had already told myself to wait until the split anyway, so I guess I will do that.

Buying shares today for a split tomorrow shouldn't matter. However, I read an article a few years ago that tracked splits and their gains after the split. They found the split stock seemed to continue to grow for on average the next 3 years. With TSLA you have a lot of pre speculation on the split already and more speculation on the S&P 500 inclusion. TSLA short term is a crap shoot, long term seems better. I didn't dive into it until it dropped to 535 and I didn't have much in the HSA at that time.

With the current price, the 5-1 split seems a bit low. I'd like to see the split get it in the $50 range.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
The Dow went up about 2,000 points when Trump got elected in 2016. If he doesn't get reelected in 2020, do you think that we're going to lose those gains?
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
14,577
12,689
146
The Dow went up about 2,000 points when Trump got elected in 2016. If he doesn't get reelected in 2020, do you think that we're going to lose those gains?
I'm predicting a massive drop a few weeks prior (feel free to speculate on why, I have), followed by a massive ramp up in the following year.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
The Dow went up about 2,000 points when Trump got elected in 2016. If he doesn't get reelected in 2020, do you think that we're going to lose those gains?

I was looking at options last week (10 ABBV 80 puts iirc) and prior to the election (October) the price was like $110. For post election puts the price was almost $1500 (Nov 20th).

Some people sure think the whole thing is going to implode if the dems sweep. Big funds are snapping up post election puts like crazy to protect their positions.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
So some reasons were given for today's mega cap rally:

They are placing bets on the next trillion dollar co's. So far TSLA, NFLX and FB are all not there despite gigantic gains in the middle of a pandemic, political uncertainty and a Fed fueled confidence rally.

Supposedly there is also speculation the Fed is going to up its confidence game by announcing "a new paradigm" with regard to inflation (which they say does not exist despite the dollar hitting all time lows against gold, stocks and real estate).

All I can say is that better be some damn speech Powell gives this week!


PS...nVidia is only $300B.
 
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njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,938
136
I was looking at options last week (10 ABBV 80 puts iirc) and prior to the election (October) the price was like $110. For post election puts the price was almost $1500 (Nov 20th).

Some people sure think the whole thing is going to implode if the dems sweep. Big funds are snapping up post election puts like crazy to protect their positions.
This year is going to be a democratic landslide. There's no way that won't happen unless Trump declares marshal law - which I seriously think is a possibility. He knows that once he's out of office, he's going to be fucked more ways than a Thai hooker.

If the market hasn't already priced that in, then I want a couple rails of whatever they're snorting.

Thinking that anything is going to happen immediately after Nov. 3rd is just baseless hysteria. I have no doubt that a Dem administration with majorities in both houses will do things like claw back Trump's historic tax giveaway. But be honest, even if you benefited from that travesty, it was nothing less than obscene.

One of the biggest problems in the US besides systemic racism and QAnon cult followers is wealth disparity. And you can be sure the Dems will try to do things that change that - As it should be.

Sorry for the political tirade. This probably belongs in thread the name of which must never be spoken. So delete this if I've crossed a line.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,882
12,354
126
www.anyf.ca
My Gowest stocks are kinda stagnant, while Victoria Gold are up. I'm actually making several hundred with those right now while I'm losing close to a grand with Gowest. I only had a couple hundred to throw at Victoria Gold so could only buy like 100ish stocks. They've since merged so I have 51 now. I think if Gowest goes up I'll be tempted to cash out and put that money towards Victoria Gold. Or I can wait and see what happens long term. Gowest have been drilling and hitting gold it's just their main buyer bailed on them and they are running out of room to stockpile ore. Seems it's not that bad of a problem to have.

Most of my other stocks are down too, even pre corona. Not going to quit my day job. I can't afford the blue chip stocks so I stick mostly with penny stocks and those are more on the risky side.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Thinking that anything is going to happen immediately after Nov. 3rd is just baseless hysteria. I have no doubt that a Dem administration with majorities in both houses will do things like claw back Trump's historic tax giveaway. But be honest, even if you benefited from that travesty, it was nothing less than obscene.

Stock Market would crash if they did that even with ZIRP. I am skeptical, but it's why I am holding pat until after the election.

I do think taxes are going up due to the shutdown but more at the state and local level.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
This year is going to be a democratic landslide. There's no way that won't happen unless Trump declares marshal law - which I seriously think is a possibility. He knows that once he's out of office, he's going to be fucked more ways than a Thai hooker.

If the market hasn't already priced that in, then I want a couple rails of whatever they're snorting.

One of the biggest problems in the US besides systemic racism and QAnon cult followers is wealth disparity. And you can be sure the Dems will try to do things that change that - As it should be.

Sorry for the political tirade. This probably belongs in thread the name of which must never be spoken. So delete this if I've crossed a line.

It only crosses a line when people get irrationally butt-hurt.

Personally, I don't think landslide is the best way to describe it and would caution against that mentality.

While there is a very strong base of people who despise our current POTUS, you have to always look back and remember that the majority of Americans don't pay attention to politics in the slightest.... Especially now with things like Netflix, where with TV channels they would previously catch the headlines of news - now they can avoid seeing it altogether.

Just saying I would tend to be "cautiously optimistic"

Also as far as the stock market if Dems win, I would imagine Wallstreet is perfectly content with a politician that has spent 50 years in the center.



Thinking that anything is going to happen immediately after Nov. 3rd is just baseless hysteria. I have no doubt that a Dem administration with majorities in both houses will do things like claw back Trump's historic tax giveaway. But be honest, even if you benefited from that travesty, it was nothing less than obscene.

As someone that works in tax I can safely say this - our tax drastically needed reforming and needed to be more modernized. I think this one failed because it didn't close enough loopholes and the lowering of the top tiers wasn't necessary - but suffice it to say, the general world trend is the lowering of corporate taxes... the difference is that most countries are making up for it with an increase in consumer consumption taxes a'la Value Added Taxes.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Xpeng IPO is today. Xpeng and AirBnB are the two IPOs I'm interested in possibly buying. Xpeng is basically Chinese copy of Tesla. People say Nio is but it's really Xpeng. Xpeng had former Tesla employee steal Tesla Autopilot source code. IMO, Tesla and the Chinese EV companies like Xpeng are going to dominate the future global EV market. I view Xpeng as sort of like Xiaomi of the smartphone world and Tesla as Apple.
 
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