Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I love Youtube. Just watched Tesla Daily video, and it 100% confirmed Bill Gates shorted Tesla. I saw Joe Rogan interview where Elon mentioned it but I wasn't 100% sure but after watching clips of the CNBC and Bloomberg Bill Gates interviews Rob found, there's no doubt. Bill Gates shorted Tesla, and he could still be short Tesla. Makes me feel good that I might have taken some of Bill Gates money. I hope Bill Gates is short Tesla again as I want to take more of his money.

 
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Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
I love Youtube. Just watched Tesla Daily video, and it 100% confirmed Bill Gates shorted Tesla. I saw Joe Rogan interview where Elon mentioned it but I wasn't 100% sure but after watching clips of the CNBC and Bloomberg Bill Gates interviews Rob found, there's no doubt. Bill Gates shorted Tesla, and he could still be short Tesla. Makes me feel good that I might have taken some of Bill Gates money. I hope Bill Gates is short Tesla again as I want to take more of his money.

Payback for charging for Windows licenses.
 
Reactions: Red Squirrel

IEC

Elite Member
Super Moderator
Jun 10, 2004
14,359
5,017
136
I love Youtube. Just watched Tesla Daily video, and it 100% confirmed Bill Gates shorted Tesla. I saw Joe Rogan interview where Elon mentioned it but I wasn't 100% sure but after watching clips of the CNBC and Bloomberg Bill Gates interviews Rob found, there's no doubt. Bill Gates shorted Tesla, and he could still be short Tesla. Makes me feel good that I might have taken some of Bill Gates money. I hope Bill Gates is short Tesla again as I want to take more of his money.


I bought more shares today. Didn't think I'd get another opportunity to buy more on discount so soon.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
I dont know whats going on but everything is taking another major dump lower after hours (even after todays spanking), including gold, bitcoin, EV cos, you name it.

The QQQs are also trying to find a bid....no takers.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,835
5,452
136
I dont know whats going on

Fears of rising rates. Even BND is declining. I think it's overblown but surely if the Fed even thinks about that you will see another Taper Tantrum.

Edit: Inflation is definately happening. I just don't think they will raise rates.
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Well, for f$%k's sake.

I might have to trade down FUBO again. At this rate I might be holding those puts until Dec.

I am NOT losing money on that stock, no matter how many times I have to step down or how long I have to hold it. I'll hold those options until 2025 if I have to.
 

Train

Lifer
Jun 22, 2000
13,863
68
91
www.bing.com
RKT destroyed earnings expectations for like the 9th qtr in a row. Also announced a dividend that would be 5.58% of today's close.

Might try to scoop some more under $20 at open tomorrow. My guess is it will be well past that in pre-market though.
 
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zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
RKT destroyed earnings expectations for like the 9th qtr in a row. Also announced a dividend that would be 5.58% of today's close.

Might try to scoop some more under $20 at open tomorrow. My guess is it will be well past that in pre-market though.

hmm, making-mortgages-easy company.

eh, no thanks.
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
I finally sold my O and "replaced" it with FUBO 20 puts for Dec.

The risk is higher by a wide margin (no pun intended) but its either make $120 a month or potentially cash out $5600. Dec gives me plenty of time to react if FUBO goes south.
 

RichieZ

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2000
6,549
37
91
Yesterday I dropped in the seven figure range, and today I got it all back and more. We're going to the moon!

 
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njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,331
251
126
Good game gold and Peter Schiff. It just broke down a major 6 month support level. I just DCA'd hoping to sell a bounce/rejection of old support. I'm not doing well on that position, down about $4K right now. If it gets back there I can get out break-even or even small profit. But I at least had a good trade in GBTC this morning which was on a total firesale ($41.xx while BTC was at $47K) and made about $4K there. Maybe Monday morning I can get a gap up to get out of this boomer rock.

Crypto is doing a little better today so keep on eye on Bitcoin because it's been a leading indicator lately as to what stock markets do. It could be forming a bottom, and I think largely will determine overall market sentiment heading into next week. So everyone buy some damn Bitcoin this weekend.
 
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manlymatt83

Lifer
Oct 14, 2005
10,053
44
91
I finally sold my O and "replaced" it with FUBO 20 puts for Dec.

The risk is higher by a wide margin (no pun intended) but its either make $120 a month or potentially cash out $5600. Dec gives me plenty of time to react if FUBO goes south.

Replaced a solid REIT with a TV stock?
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Why is implied volatility so high on that stock?

Obviously there's a large contingent that doesn't believe in the stock. There's some serious risk there.

But I've built up a nice cushion so far this year. Spending a few grand buying the puts back won't kill me. Besides - If FUBO threatens $20 I'm sure the 15s and 10s will go though the roof. I can trade down and make a lot of that money back.

I felt overexposed to FUBO at $30 a share. All of my positions are less than that now (25,20) and it feels more comfortable. I'll migrate the 25s to 20 (or less) if it drops below 30. Let's be realistic here - FUBO ain't going to zero.

The stock has solid buy ratings across the board and the bottom price target is like $30. I know that in the end that doesn't mean anything but its better to have to than not.

I'm learning how to stay on top of this stuff and when the time is right to trade down. When you're selling options the ultimate key is to mitigate losses. The gains will always be there.

I'm pretty happy with how well I got through this past week and a half. lol - Monday morning was such a potential nightmare.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Im continuing to get my ass kicked by trading volatile names the last few days.

Go long? Ass kick. Go short? Ass kick. If had only done the opposite of what I did, it would be all good!
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
I woke up from a long nap with a clear, unbiased mind and came to a solid moment of clarity:

>>> Markets may fall into bear territory later this year (20%+ correction).

Interest rates have nowhere to go but up from all time lows and the Fed may lose control. As I have argued earlier this year inflation is creeping into everything. Now the market agrees and has responded by shorting bonds which causes the yield to rise. The Fed buys short term bonds to suppress this from happening. However, it cannot control long term rates as effectively (10 year bond).

Furthermore, during Powell's last Congressional testimony he agreed GDP growth may in the range of SIX PERCENT! The last time we had 5-6% GDP growth was the 1970's and the PRIME RATE wound up near 20% by 1979!!!

I am not saying rates will go that high. But with a projected 6% GDP growth rate, the 10 year bond at only 1.5%, what happens when it goes to 2% or 3%?!


The next round of pork barrel "stimulus" is due March 14th. After that date, look out below.


>>> The democrats are hell bent on raising income taxes

No matter what you think, the stock market has never met a tax increase it liked. Another SELL catalyst.


>>> As more people get vaccinated and return to work excessive jobs growth will "shock" the market


Great jobs numbers will cause further pressure on bonds resulting in a rapid growth in the 10 year rate.



TL;DR -

Based on projected abnormal GDP growth, rates will only go up from here. The market will react poorly as it has already. Assuming this happens it would be wise expect 20% or more correction. Another peril facing the markets is the specter of higher income and perhaps a new trading transaction tax. Yet another reason to be wary of a stock market selloff in 2021.
 
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Reactions: Artorias

manlymatt83

Lifer
Oct 14, 2005
10,053
44
91
I woke up from a long nap with a clear, unbiased mind and came to a solid moment of clarity:

>>> Markets may fall into bear territory later this year (20%+ correction).

Interest rates have nowhere to go but up from all time lows and the Fed may lose control. As I have argued earlier this year inflation is creeping into everything. Now the market agrees and has responded by shorting bonds which causes the yield to rise. The Fed buys short term bonds to suppress this from happening. However, it cannot control long term rates as effectively (10 year bond).

Furthermore, during Powell's last Congressional testimony he agreed GDP growth may in the range of SIX PERCENT! The last time we had 5-6% GDP growth was the 1970's and the PRIME RATE wound up near 20% by 1979!!!

I am not saying rates will go that high. But with a projected 6% GDP growth rate, the 10 year bond at only 1.5%, what happens when it goes to 2% or 3%?!


The next round of pork barrel "stimulus" is due March 14th. After that date, look out below.


>>> The democrats are hell bent on raising income taxes

No matter what you think, the stock market has never met a tax increase it liked. Another SELL catalyst.


>>> As more people get vaccinated and return to work excessive jobs growth will "shock" the market


Great jobs numbers will cause further pressure on bonds resulting in a rapid growth in the 10 year rate.



TL;DR -

Based on projected abnormal GDP growth, rates will only go up from here. The market will react poorly as it has already. Assuming this happens it would be wise expect 20% or more correction. Another peril facing the markets is the specter of higher income and perhaps a new trading transaction tax. Yet another reason to be wary of a stock market selloff in 2021.

How would a pullback affect REITs?
 

dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
The EV correction is already going on. Has been for at least the last few weeks. Everything is getting slaughtered.

My NIO puts went from 50 to 45 to 40 to 30.
XPEV? 45 to 40 to 30 to 22.5. All in a relatively short time frame.
 
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