Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,322
2,928
126
I was leaning towards VDIGX. I'm now thinking maybe it's not a good route to begin with.

What scenario would putting money into VDIGX be a good idea?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
What a horrible day. Sold whatever I had left and now only daytrade. You cannot trust this market.

Bitcoin mining stocks have been in total freefall mode lately. Noticing the downtrend, I daytraded some put contracts on RIOT.

It would be nice if they stabilized. I want to buy this dip. I just dont know where the floor is.
 
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woodman1999

Golden Member
Sep 19, 2003
1,697
106
106
Neighbor down the street is having their Tesla solar panels installed today. Still aren't pretty, but I am going to at least get some info on what they think of them and how well they're functioning.
 
Reactions: BudAshes

Scarpozzi

Lifer
Jun 13, 2000
26,389
1,778
126
What a horrible day. Sold whatever I had left and now only daytrade. You cannot trust this market.

Bitcoin mining stocks have been in total freefall mode lately. Noticing the downtrend, I daytraded some put contracts on RIOT.

It would be nice if they stabilized. I want to buy this dip. I just dont know where the floor is.
I agree...I'm getting beat down pretty hard on my accounts the past few months.

I'm going to sit back and hold my cards and see if they rebound while continuing to work toward getting debt free. I'm kicking myself hard for not flipping all my money back into my indexe funds when I had a chance...even when the market goes down, they at least pay dividends. All this NASDAQ stuff I'm in now isn't doing anything for me.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
GME surging 18%. All is well.

I was tempted to trade that as well, but went back and forth shorting and buying 200 shares of QQQ.

I missed the $39 bottom on RIOT, but did buy and sell shares on that one too. Too bad I did not have the guts to ride it back up to $49 today. A $10 move is so damn sweet.

(Considering it fell from $65 just a few days ago along with all the crypto stocks, a bounce was overdue.) And bitcoin is not even up today!
 
Reactions: Roger Wilco

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,997
20,236
136
That's what they teach you in college but in real life, it rarely works like that. The stock value should go down by the dividend amount but what normally happens is the stock drops slightly if at all and quickly recovers. Or not. Dividend payment is just noise.

Rocket Companies (RKT) paid out their special dividend yesterday. It was very large one time special dividend. What you described did not happen.

Again, Costco has paid out special one time large dividend couple times the past 5 years. What you described did not happen. Apple has paid out special dividend. What you described did not happen.

Theory is not real life.

But I agree with you taxes on dividend makes it undesirable. It's the same thing with selling options. It's taxed as short term gain which can mean very large tax depending on your tax bracket.

Here's something to hold you over until SpaceX goes public

 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,955
5,826
136
I was tempted to trade that as well, but went back and forth shorting and buying 200 shares of QQQ.

I missed the $39 bottom on RIOT, but did buy and sell shares on that one too. Too bad I did not have the guts to ride it back up to $49 today. A $10 move is so damn sweet.

(Considering it fell from $65 just a few days ago along with all the crypto stocks, a bounce was overdue.) And bitcoin is not even up today!

GME is pushing $200 in premarket. It's totally going to 1,000 lolol.

I don't have any RIOT, but my MARA pretty much did the same thing. Blockchain stocks seem to be a great way to add extra volatility/insanity to one's portfolio.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
146
Oh finally, a spammy stock article that understands what 23&Me is and isn't trying to make the boneheaded argument that the subscription holders are the customers, and thus doing their math and valuation improperly based on their spit kit service.


Still, short junk that isn't getting into the details, but they understand the point of the company.

We've just had a massive worldwide proving test of the efficacy of what "Gene therapy-light" can do in practical medicine, somewhat unplanned and years ahead of expectations. This event marks a complete paradigm shift in the practice of medicine and biotech, and these types of databases are the foundation of it all.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
Does anyone remember when EV stocks used to go up? Now it seems they only go down.

And if you want to see where some of them are going, look at the 52 week low prices:




Yes, I know, "...but Cathy said..."
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
146
Does anyone remember when EV stocks used to go up? Now it seems they only go down.

And if you want to see where some of them are going, look at the 52 week low prices:

View attachment 42119


Yes, I know, "...but Cathy said..."

Your analysis is interesting if you're the type that puts value in what was important in 1990, when the actual year is 2035.
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,955
5,826
136
Blockchain stocks have mostly replenished my EV losses, but EV prices are very tempting right now.

Of course this is all moot when it's blatantly obvious everyone should bet the farm on GME.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I heard about a hedge fund blowing up last week and this morning I finally had the time to read about it. Very interesting story about Bill Hwang and his Archegos fund. It's crazy how under the radar he was. It's first time I heard about the guy. Crazy South Korean with watermelon balls. Can't believe he grew his money to $15 billion under the radar like that and then blew it up. Pretty amazing. I would love to have a drink with the guy and talk with him.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
146
I learned long ago Felix has no clue what he's doing. So I just smile when I read his post.

well to be fair, he really does seem to focus on what matters in any given week. So, he seems laser-tuned to grabbing those ~2-3% day profits. I mean, that's a way to do things and of course if you are making a handful or more bets like that every day, in aggregate, it's fine.

But of course that limits you from understanding what actually matter in the long run--you know, actual human progress, achievement, making the world better for everyone and not just your narrow short-term thinking. It does represent a fundamental problem that permeates so many aspects of our culture: backwards social thinking, corporations that don't care about the future and only quarterly earnings for their shareholders (re: don't give a dick about their customers), and general unwillingness to challenge the status quo and make actual hard decisions against "what's comfortable in life," especially when you already know that the current path is a stupid, doomed one.

But, if your goal is to simply make short term bets on what currently exists, purely for profit all while accepting the expected consequences of social stagnation and perpetual human misery, then it makes a lot of sense. ....that's pretty much why the entire financial sector was created c. 1975, anyway.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,819
29,571
146
I heard about a hedge fund blowing up last week and this morning I finally had the time to read about it. Very interesting story about Bill Hwang and his Archegos fund. It's crazy how under the radar he was. It's first time I heard about the guy. Crazy South Korean with watermelon balls. Can't believe he grew his money to $15 billion under the radar like that and then blew it up. Pretty amazing. I would love to have a drink with the guy and talk with him.

that's the one that did all of those block trades on Friday and basically freaked everyone out?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
Your analysis is interesting if you're the type that puts value in what was important in 1990, when the actual year is 2035.

1990? Try 2020. Those are "52 week lows", not 1990 lows. Some people involved in those companies might not have even been alive in 1990.

I get the point you were trying to make though that "EV is the future" and therefore there is no possible way any of the above companies will see their 52 week lows again.

No possible way.

lol
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
Blockchain stocks have mostly replenished my EV losses, but EV prices are very tempting right now.

Of course this is all moot when it's blatantly obvious everyone should bet the farm on GME.

Ive been trading (buying and shorting RIOT stock and options) every day for the last week and LOVING the volatile ups and downs. I love how people come in and buy my shares and options then flee the stock and my puts and short calls come into the money.

Damn I love that stock!!
 
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Reactions: Roger Wilco

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,311
2,100
126
well to be fair, he really does seem to focus on what matters in any given week. So, he seems laser-tuned to grabbing those ~2-3% day profits. I mean, that's a way to do things and of course if you are making a handful or more bets like that every day, in aggregate, it's fine.

But of course that limits you from understanding what actually matter in the long run--you know, actual human progress, achievement, making the world better for everyone and not just your narrow short-term thinking. It does represent a fundamental problem that permeates so many aspects of our culture: backwards social thinking, corporations that don't care about the future and only quarterly earnings for their shareholders (re: don't give a dick about their customers), and general unwillingness to challenge the status quo and make actual hard decisions against "what's comfortable in life," especially when you already know that the current path is a stupid, doomed one.

But, if your goal is to simply make short term bets on what currently exists, purely for profit all while accepting the expected consequences of social stagnation and perpetual human misery, then it makes a lot of sense. ....that's pretty much why the entire financial sector was created c. 1975, anyway.

Ive made it no secret I focus on short term trading and yes, in the long run, there will be winners. I just dont like waiting that long.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
well to be fair, he really does seem to focus on what matters in any given week. So, he seems laser-tuned to grabbing those ~2-3% day profits. I mean, that's a way to do things and of course if you are making a handful or more bets like that every day, in aggregate, it's fine.

But of course that limits you from understanding what actually matter in the long run--you know, actual human progress, achievement, making the world better for everyone and not just your narrow short-term thinking. It does represent a fundamental problem that permeates so many aspects of our culture: backwards social thinking, corporations that don't care about the future and only quarterly earnings for their shareholders (re: don't give a dick about their customers), and general unwillingness to challenge the status quo and make actual hard decisions against "what's comfortable in life," especially when you already know that the current path is a stupid, doomed one.

But, if your goal is to simply make short term bets on what currently exists, purely for profit all while accepting the expected consequences of social stagnation and perpetual human misery, then it makes a lot of sense. ....that's pretty much why the entire financial sector was created c. 1975, anyway.
Short term trading is fine if you can consistently make money. But based on how long he’s been trading, you would think he would be lot better off if he was good. I bet you he underperformed vs S&P 500 the past 20 years. Guaranteed. He would be so much better off if he focused on the big picture but he thinks he’s good trader. Some people never learn.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
that's the one that did all of those block trades on Friday and basically freaked everyone out?
The prime brokers sold him out because he couldn’t meet the margin call. I would post link to the stories because I think it’s interesting but I’m out on a date with my wife in Austin atm so I’m away from my laptop and it’s pity to link stuff on the iPhone.
 

Tweak155

Lifer
Sep 23, 2003
11,448
262
126
I heard about a hedge fund blowing up last week and this morning I finally had the time to read about it. Very interesting story about Bill Hwang and his Archegos fund. It's crazy how under the radar he was. It's first time I heard about the guy. Crazy South Korean with watermelon balls. Can't believe he grew his money to $15 billion under the radar like that and then blew it up. Pretty amazing. I would love to have a drink with the guy and talk with him.
You have a link to a good article? I had to read a few to get somewhat of an idea, but they weren't very detailed.

The overall gist I understood is that they bet big on Viacom and the like and when they tanked on the offerings, the Archegos fund was margin called.

EDIT: I see now you will post a link later!
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,578
2,913
136
Mapped it out once and if you trade 200 days a year and make 1% every single day, you get: (1.01)^200 equals roughly 7x your initial principle, so 3.5x after short term taxes (assuming 50% max).

After only a couple years exponential growth reay works in your favor.
 

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,134
1,411
136
Mapped it out once and if you trade 200 days a year and make 1% every single day, you get: (1.01)^200 equals roughly 7x your initial principle, so 3.5x after short term taxes (assuming 50% max).

After only a couple years exponential growth reay works in your favor.

You make it sound so easy haha. Getting that consistent is almost impossible and all it takes is just a few bad days to wipe weeks, or months worth of gains.
 
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