Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

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Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
That sly Bezos sure knew something was up. Amazon stock price down and the forecasts are low. Would be surprised of the start of a long downward trend.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,297
2,097
126
SAVA falling like a comet to the Earth. Too many people counting their FDA approval chickens before they are hatched.

Dasher, thank God you covered those puts! Never hurts to take a profit.
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,396
126
In the last few days (3 days), over $1.5 trillion USD of equity value was gone from the stock market in mainland china. Small hiccup or the yellow canary?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,297
2,097
126
Dang. Marin up 40% before earnings. Hope the earnings are good for their sake.

I did not know why people were running up the stock *prior* to earnings. Earnings did not look good. Profit is down and revs are down. But being that Marin has lots of trader interest similar to other meme stocks, another rally in the future is not out of the question. I also did join the intraday action on Friday.


Hard to say how Marin trades on Monday. My guess is somewhere between the $5 to $7.50 call strikes. Of course day traders may try to run the stock up despite bad fundamentals so anything is possible. But Marin has to overcome its weaknesses in profit and revenue growth.

They project sales of $6m on the high end next quarter and a loss of roughly $3m. Given the current market cap of $110M @ $8.25 a share, that is almost 5x revenues, which are projected to be smaller in QE September vs. QE June.

So I am lowering my fair price to 2.5x sales or $4.50 per share based on decreasing revenues (6mX4=$24m annual * 2.5x 13.3m sh=$4.50). Cash on hand is $4 per share which will fall.

Again, crazy short covering rallys are not out of the question, so any price is possible, but this cannot be predicted or something to rely on. I will definitely keep trading it here and there if there are any.
 
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dasherHampton

Platinum Member
Jan 19, 2018
2,543
488
96
Dasher, thank God you covered those puts! Never hurts to take a profit.

There was some luck involved in closing the position 2 days before the drop but I've been uneasy about the whole thing for a while now. If there's any bad news out of SAVA at all my nice profit could have turned into a $10,000+ loss pretty quickly. There's no way I'm holding $90,000 worth of SAVA at this juncture.

I might buy back the MRIN 5 puts and just forget about the whole thing. I haven't decided yet.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Square released their earnings early yesterday because they're buying Afterpay for $29 billion in stock. Afterpay is the leader in "buy now, pay later" company. It's segment that's growing rapidly. It's basically modern version of store layaway plan except people get the product immediately and pay in installments and pay interest.

Robinhood stock price is getting nice bump today. I'm wondering if there's some revaluation going on with fintech stocks because of Square paying $29 billion for Afterpay. People have to be thinking Robinhood stock is a bargain in comparison since Robinhood market cap was only little over $30 billion. If Afterpay is worth $29 billion in today's market, Robinhood is a steal at $30 billion. At least in my view.

I own shares of both Square and Robinhood. I approve of Square using their high stock price as currency to buy BNPL market leader Afterpay. And I think Robinhood is a bargain compared to other fintech companies.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,939
5,818
136
Anyone invested in green energy (aside from EVs)? SEDG is up 16% and ENPH is up 5%.

In the month of May, utility-scale solar generation exceeded all of 2013's utility-scale solar generation in the U.S.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,297
2,097
126
I was really tempted to buy HOOD but passed. Kicking myself now.

I did buy 1000 PINS @ 58.92 and 10 Sept 60 calls for 2.90.

Last time PINS crashed it went back near all time highs. I am hoping to scalp a few bucks.

 
Last edited:
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Square released their earnings early yesterday because they're buying Afterpay for $29 billion in stock. Afterpay is the leader in "buy now, pay later" company. It's segment that's growing rapidly. It's basically modern version of store layaway plan except people get the product immediately and pay in installments and pay interest.

Robinhood stock price is getting nice bump today. I'm wondering if there's some revaluation going on with fintech stocks because of Square paying $29 billion for Afterpay. People have to be thinking Robinhood stock is a bargain in comparison since Robinhood market cap was only little over $30 billion. If Afterpay is worth $29 billion in today's market, Robinhood is a steal at $30 billion. At least in my view.

I own shares of both Square and Robinhood. I approve of Square using their high stock price as currency to buy BNPL market leader Afterpay. And I think Robinhood is a bargain compared to other fintech companies.

Yeah Afterpay is definitely interesting - though it sounds like it's essentially going to entirely rely on a model of depending on people not making their payments, then sending fees and increased interest, credit + collections, etc....

I wonder if they self-collect the debt or sell it off to collect....


I never understood layaway, heh. So you're basically paying for the store to hold the item for you while you slowly pay it off - but you don't get the item in the meantime? I guess I understand layaway for a rare item that runs out of out of stock (to hold/reserve it)..... but.... It's hilarious because it's essentially just forcefully making people use a piggy-bank.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,297
2,097
126
Anyone invested in green energy (aside from EVs)? SEDG is up 16% and ENPH is up 5%.

In the month of May, utility-scale solar generation exceeded all of 2013's utility-scale solar generation in the U.S.

Everytime I mess with solar stocks I get burned. But my go to stock is CSIQ. Don't ask why, I can tell you.
 
Reactions: Roger Wilco

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
3,939
5,818
136
Everytime I mess with solar stocks I get burned. But my go to stock is CSIQ. Don't ask why, I can tell you.

I have some CSIQ as well. I just buy the dips and occasionally take profits to buy dips again.

As far as wind power goes, the only thing I've come across is FAN.
 
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Torn Mind

Lifer
Nov 25, 2012
11,782
2,685
136
Yeah Afterpay is definitely interesting - though it sounds like it's essentially going to entirely rely on a model of depending on people not making their payments, then sending fees and increased interest, credit + collections, etc....

I wonder if they self-collect the debt or sell it off to collect....
The concept sounds like the same as Rent-a-Center and Aaron's.

Meaning it's designed to exploit the lack of frugality and spending discipline that American culture often encourages. But I don't know how Afterpay will be different from the above. There are only so many customers.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
The concept sounds like the same as Rent-a-Center and Aaron's.

Meaning it's designed to exploit the lack of frugality and spending discipline that American culture often encourages. But I don't know how Afterpay will be different from the above. There are only so many customers.

Right but it's at the payment side - not at the store level like Rent-a-center, etc...

Also if I'm reading it right... they don't do credit checks, but they do ask questions where they will then approve or not approve of people.

Basically stores like it because people opt to spend more when they aren't burdened into using THEIR actual money, heh.
 

Tweak155

Lifer
Sep 23, 2003
11,448
262
126
Congrats to those that got in on $HOOD, wow. I need to seriously work on my valuation skills because they suck. I wanted to get into $HOOD just because what they've already brought to the trading world, but was not expecting a serious change like this so quickly.
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,578
2,912
136
Right but it's at the payment side - not at the store level like Rent-a-center, etc...

Also if I'm reading it right... they don't do credit checks, but they do ask questions where they will then approve or not approve of people.

Basically stores like it because people opt to spend more when they aren't burdened into using THEIR actual money, heh.
So it's basically a credit card. That market seems pretty saturated.
 

digiram

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2004
3,991
172
106
Dammit, maybe I should've taken some AMD profit. Actually, I'm gonna buy more of this dip. I feel AMD market cap is still very low compared to intl and nvda. There's still more upside here. Thoughts?
 

digiram

Diamond Member
Apr 17, 2004
3,991
172
106
Dammit, maybe I should've taken some AMD profit. Actually, I'm gonna buy more of this dip. I feel AMD market cap is still very low compared to intl and nvda. There's still more upside here. Thoughts?
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Dammit, maybe I should've taken some AMD profit. Actually, I'm gonna buy more of this dip. I feel AMD market cap is still very low compared to intl and nvda. There's still more upside here. Thoughts?
Today is just small pullback after nice breakout. You have to expect some pullback and consolidation after such huge move. So why sell? You never going to capture everything and time the top and the bottom. Why sell and pay taxes unless you feel AMD as a company peaked and their business prospect going forward will decline over time? If the company is executing and future prospect haven't changed, just stay the course and hold. Sell some far out covered calls if you want but I wouldn't sell. Just IMO.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,835
5,452
136
AMD seems to lack the killer instinct to expand in a way to really justify the stock price. Cloud providers are just as likely if not more to steal Intel's server market share.

Course if you're buying a tech stock these days you're not buying because of fundamentals.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,135
2,445
126
Datadog finally had a breakout day after reporting good earnings last quarter. About freaking time!
 
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