Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[LordNoob]

Oh wait, you're serious?

Of those people you mentioned, about 99% of their wealth is in stocks. Who would buy it at current prices? No one of course. That money literally doesn't exist. That's like saying we could fund moon bases if just everyone sold their house at current market values.



Too late. Once you give people the free supply, you can't shut it off. 30 years of sustained cuts and simultaneous tax hikes are about as realistic as me growing horse legs.

I agree there is no way we will have 30 years of sustained austerity. However, when you look at the scope of history, our income tax rates are at record lows since the inception of the income tax in the U.S. Even if I am wrong, could it hurt to at least have retirement money diversified into Roth vehicles?

After a "Republican" president increased the debt by more than 7 trillion in 4 years, and yes he was on target to incur a massive debt even before COVID 19, I seriously doubt someone is going to suddenly become the "adult in the room" like Paul Ryan conservatives [falsely] portrayed themselves, but it is still necessary. The current path is not sustainable without major upheaval.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We are definitely in a new era in the stock market. This is the GameStop era. Wall Street was shocked at the way markets behaved when concentrations of retail traders use large of amounts of money to move stocks to pretty much any price. Last year the retail hive moved EV stocks to astronomical levels now they flaunt their power in Gamestop, and it took a while for "everyone else" to understand the phenomena of concentrated retail power.

Normally "market makers" try to keep a stock relatively stable and will halt trading if it gets out of their control (which I hate because they usually only stop upside swings, not downside swings).

It is making it hard to be ahead of the curve because a stock will be one price a good part of the day, zoom up 10-40% for 5 or 10 minutes, then go back to where it was.

Im not sure what is causing this, but it is interesting to watch.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I agree there is no way we will have 30 years of sustained austerity. However, when you look at the scope of history, our income tax rates are at record lows since the inception of the income tax in the U.S. Even if I am wrong, could it hurt to at least have retirement money diversified into Roth vehicles?

After a "Republican" president increased the debt by more than 7 trillion in 4 years, and yes he was on target to incur a massive debt even before COVID 19, I seriously doubt someone is going to suddenly become the "adult in the room" like Paul Ryan conservatives [falsely] portrayed themselves, but it is still necessary. The current path is not sustainable without major upheaval.

America could experience a similar situation if we dont start to control spending and implement austerity sooner rather than later.

 

[LordNoob]

RBLX was on my radar last year as the dark horse IPO to buy. I was more excited about RBLX IPO than ABNB because I thought there was potential for RBLX to be undervalued and miss priced by the market. It turned out RBLX execs were smart and got more than full worth of RBLX. I love RBLX but not at current valuation. So I'm on the sideline with RBLX and ABNB because of valuation. At current valuations, I rather buy ABNB. But both are great businesses I would love to buy at the right price.


I actually tried on the Tesla short-shorts and about tore it. My ass is too fat and big to fit into the shorts.

What kind of entry point are you looking for to get into RBLX? All I know about the company is how much my kids have spent on it over the past year, which helps explain its valuation.

 

[IEC]

Stimmy... is coming. If I was short on stonks, I would be very nervous in the coming weeks. Surveys are indicating a lot of people will throw their stimmy checks straight into the market.

 

[destrekor]

Of those people you mentioned, about 99% of their wealth is in stocks. Who would buy it at current prices? No one of course. That money literally doesn't exist. That's like saying we could fund moon bases if just everyone sold their house at current market values.

In regards to a wealth tax, it is meant to be a tax charge representing the total current values, and paid in cash (check, etc). Selling isn't necessary nor induced. And while a very large portion of wealth is in the markets via stocks, I highly doubt the richest Americans haven't diversified some of that wealth by now. Maybe their still hold all their original stock in personal businesses, but that was never their singular source of wealth. I'd also be very curious if there is in fact someone who literally never received a cash salary and still holds all original stock received as compensation.

That's also all beside the point, as current valuations are indeed being bought up by investors today, of all types.
Relatedly, look at the major corporations exposing their bottom lines to major Bitcoin holdings!
I don't totally get it myself, the world has gone bonkers.

 

[ponyo]

What kind of entry point are you looking for to get into RBLX? All I know about the company is how much my kids have spent on it over the past year, which helps explain its valuation.

Way lower than current. In Feb 2020, RBLX was privately valued at little over $4 billion. Year later, it direct listed and is valued over $40 billion. It was undervalued at $4 billion. It's fully valued at $40 billion. I was looking for potential multi bagger. RBLX at under or around $10 billion would've been it. But not at $40+ billion.

In regards to a wealth tax, it is meant to be a tax charge representing the total current values, and paid in cash (check, etc). Selling isn't necessary nor induced. And while a very large portion of wealth is in the markets via stocks, I highly doubt the richest Americans haven't diversified some of that wealth by now. Maybe their still hold all their original stock in personal businesses, but that was never their singular source of wealth. I'd also be very curious if there is in fact someone who literally never received a cash salary and still holds all original stock received as compensation.

That's also all beside the point, as current valuations are indeed being bought up by investors today, of all types.
Relatedly, look at the major corporations exposing their bottom lines to major Bitcoin holdings!
I don't totally get it myself, the world has gone bonkers.

Most of the super wealthy have highly concentrated positions of their company stock. That's how they got super wealthy. It's not through diversification. Diversification actually hurts your return if you're going for big return. Bezos is actually selling out his Amazon shares because I think he knows Amazon is nearly fully valued. Musk has never sold single share of Tesla other than for tax purposes and only buys more. He's in fact all in on TSLA. Musk only diversification comes from other companies he owns like SpaceX, Boring, Neurolink, etc. Musk is the richest person in the world. I don't care what Forbes and other stupid publications report about Musk is now #2 behind Bezos. Musk owns 51% of SpaceX. SpaceX is conservatively private valued at $79 billion. That's bogus low balled valuation. SpaceX is minimum $200 billion if it was public company. I would kill to buy into SpaceX at $79 billion.

Taxing billionaires yearly for their unsold stock share holdings is stupid idea. They'll pay their share when they eventually sell. If they want to raise capital gains tax, that's fine. I will fight them every step of the way.

 

[Torn Mind]

In regards to a wealth tax, it is meant to be a tax charge representing the total current values, and paid in cash (check, etc). Selling isn't necessary nor induced. And while a very large portion of wealth is in the markets via stocks, I highly doubt the richest Americans haven't diversified some of that wealth by now. Maybe their still hold all their original stock in personal businesses, but that was never their singular source of wealth. I'd also be very curious if there is in fact someone who literally never received a cash salary and still holds all original stock received as compensation.

That's also all beside the point, as current valuations are indeed being bought up by investors today, of all types.
Relatedly, look at the major corporations exposing their bottom lines to major Bitcoin holdings!
I don't totally get it myself, the world has gone bonkers.

All taxes are sold as a sniper shot on some major billionaire's money.

But in actual fact, the actual effect is more scattershot and often loaded with a surprise or two.

Furthermore, behavior will adjust to the presence of the tax. Perhaps the mansions will be a tad smaller, the market for tangible-but-not-easy-to-value goods rise while the value of easy-to-appraise goods like cars start having a lower sell price.

 

[destrekor]

Take note everyone - I made no argument in favor or against wealth taxes. This isn't P&N, let's keep it that way.

 

[destrekor]

Most of the super wealthy have highly concentrated positions of their company stock. That's how they got super wealthy. It's not through diversification. Diversification actually hurts your return if you're going for big return. Bezos is actually selling out his Amazon shares because I think he knows Amazon is nearly fully valued. Musk has never sold single share of Tesla other than for tax purposes and only buys more. He's in fact all in on TSLA. Musk only diversification comes from other companies he owns like SpaceX, Boring, Neurolink, etc. Musk is the richest person in the world. I don't care what Forbes and other stupid publications report about Musk is now #2 behind Bezos. Musk owns 51% of SpaceX. SpaceX is conservatively private valued at $79 billion. That's bogus low balled valuation. SpaceX is minimum $200 billion if it was public company. I would kill to buy into SpaceX at $79 billion.

Taxing billionaires yearly for their unsold stock share holdings is stupid idea. They'll pay their share when they eventually sell. If they want to raise capital gains tax, that's fine. I will fight them every step of the way.

I didn't say 100% diversified, I just said some. And didn't negate highly concentrated holdings. Clearly Musk is in this case well diversified with multiple businesses and cash reaped from them as well. And Bezos wasn't 100% stock for salary either though he kept it modest. He did sell over the years in general, I'm sure largely to fund other ventures like Blue Origin.

For alternative taxing strategies, right now I'd more more in favor of having any such wealth tax focus on real estate, that's where most wealthy keep their wealth locked up anyway.
Also I'd have to consider tiny fixed taxes on speculative trades like options, an interest idea that has been discussed before.
I'm not sold on any of it personally, but find them worthy of discussion nonetheless.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold WKHS on RIDE controversy. May reenter at another time.

 

[Roger Wilco]

AMC is raging up 18% atm. Yolo?

 

[Torn Mind]

AMC is raging up 18% atm. Yolo?

AMC Entertainment Independent Again as Majority Shareholder Reduces Stake | The Motley Fool

After its super voting shares were significantly diluted, Chinese conglomerate Dailin Wanda converted shares into regular stock.

www.fool.com

 

[herm0016]

Sold WKHS on RIDE controversy. May reenter at another time.

Whats the controversy now? All I see is the law suit and the congressional investagation. The lawsuit is stupid. The investagation could help more than hurt long term.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Whats the controversy now? All I see is the law suit and the congressional investagation. The lawsuit is stupid. The investagation could help more than hurt long term.

Hindenberg released negative information on RIDE, which is 10% owned by WKHS last week. The stock fell, but not before I could lock in some profit. RIDE seems to have a lot of problems.

I decided to buy back a few shares of WKHS today since RIDE refutes the claims, says its on track and will release a detailed response on Wednesday.

 

[slightlyhuman]

AMC Entertainment Independent Again as Majority Shareholder Reduces Stake | The Motley Fool

After its super voting shares were significantly diluted, Chinese conglomerate Dailin Wanda converted shares into regular stock.

www.fool.com

hedgies taking attention from GME, or the paper hand holders at least.

 

[Torn Mind]

Gamestop now down to 235.22.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Time for more interest rate volatility.

 

[Artorias]

Correct me if I'm wrong, if more people are selling bonds, the price generally goes down and rates go up?

So the government can buy bonds to deflate the yield by increasing bond prices?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Correct me if I'm wrong, if more people are selling bonds, the price generally goes down and rates go up?

So the government can buy bonds to deflate the yield by increasing bond prices?

Correct.

An easier way to look at this is to consider a dividend paying stock. If the stock price goes up, the dividend yield goes down relative to price. If the stock price goes down, the yield goes up relative to price .

This assumes the dividend remains constant.

 

[FelixDeCat]

People keep buying the dip, but the dip keeps dipping.

Who will win?

 

[Roger Wilco]

The internet told me to buy some bank stocks to hedge the tech slaughter. It's been keeping me afloat thus far, and I've picked up a few unintentional dividend payouts lol.

 

[Train]

The internet told me to buy some bank stocks to hedge the tech slaughter. It's been keeping me afloat thus far, and I've picked up a few unintentional dividend payouts lol.

I've held USB for almost 15 years now. Adding a handful of shares every now and then. Even with the dividend tanking by over 90% in 2009 and 2010 (and not fully recovering until early 2020), I've still made 12.1% annualized gain on the stock. Not bad for a boring old bank.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I've held USB for almost 15 years now. Adding a handful of shares every now and then. Even with the dividend tanking by over 90% in 2009 and 2010 (and not fully recovering until early 2020), I've still made 12.1% annualized gain on the stock. Not bad for a boring old bank.

Interesting. I picked some up earlier today and noticed the next ex-dividend date is 3/30.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Speaking of banks, I have a watch list of several large and regional banks along with the XLF etf so I can glance at the sector in an instant.

My watch lists are organized by sectors like financials, crypto stocks, EV cos, oil cos, biotechs, REITs, shipping stocks, solar stocks, travel stocks and "hoopla" stocks which are flash in the pan.

I also track the 10 largest holdings of the QQQ, which are all tech stocks. Lots of people do not know that QQQ has a big financial component. So if the top 10 tech holdings are down but banks and financials are up, you can probably expect a bounce in the QQQs.

Watching sectors helps give a traders edge sometimes.

Since I watch crypto miners and big holders, I got in on the crypto rally yesterday and today.

My trade was CLSK. 52 week high was $40 but pulled back to $22 on a short attack and big secondary offering. I noticed it was a laggard when MSTR and RIOT rallied so I bought and sold several times from $22 to $25. I also flipped some RIOT.

Good times.