Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[dasherHampton]

In my view SAVA remains one of those ultimate long shot stocks.

The downside is not as dire as some might think. From everything I've read they have plenty on money to fund their upcoming trials, so no danger of bankruptcy. In addition - they just offered shares so they probably won't be going back to the well for a while.

My puts are up about $5500 but that's pretty small fry compared to what I'd like to make. If SAVA drifts back up to $50, $60 (or higher, God willing) they'll continue to gain but I won't take profit unless they hit around +$20,000.

But I just don't see that happening until late in the game. It'll probably be touch and go at least until December, with several more tree-shaking events on the horizon.

At one point they were down $5000. It took some nerve to not at least reduce.

 

[dasherHampton]

I noticed SAVA going up yesterday so waited and tried a day trade in the last few minutes of trading. But I picked the last 6 or 7 minutes to do so and it turned out it dipped a little during that time so I lost over $300.

And of course it turned out if I had held it overnight I would've made money because it went up in after hours to over $40/share. It made my 3 day trades for the week lose about $180 but my gain yesterday in AMD that I've held for months made up for it. That's just a paper gain, didn't sell any of the AMD, but it makes me feel better.

Look for oversold stocks with upside. I've made good money the past month or so on some of these:

YSG
EH
TIGR
RLX
CAN

edit - to be clear: I'm not saying buy those stocks now. Those are just examples of the kind of stocks I look for. If you time it right you can do well.

 

[FelixDeCat]

In my view SAVA remains one of those ultimate long shot stocks.

The downside is not as dire as some might think. From everything I've read they have plenty on money to fund their upcoming trials, so no danger of bankruptcy. On addition - they just offered shares so they probably won't be going back to the well for a while.

My puts are up about $5500 but that's pretty small fry compared to what I'd like to make. If SAVA drifts back up to $50, $60 (or higher, God willing) they'll continue to gain but I won't take profit unless they hit around +$20,000.

But I just don't see that happening until late in the game. It'll probably be touch and go at least until December, with several more tree-shaking events on the horizon.

At one point they were down $5000. It took some nerve to not at least reduce.

Normally I like to trade, not necessarily "invest". I've been watching SAVA since it was a $3 stock and traded it here and there. I noticed it bottomed out at $32 and has reversed the downward trend by going up about $2-3 per session the last few trading days. Not sure if this will continue, but my money is on green for now. The trend started to reverse after SAVA gave an update on their drug candidate.

Right now this is my current position - I have a profit of about $1,000 on 1,000 shares. I also have May $25 puts that cost $380 for insurance to cover the entire position to prevent a total loss.



I would love to see SAVA go back to $99 again. However, I would consider taking less. The intriguing thing about SAVA is it currently worth $1.6B and earlier this year speculators bid it up to nearly $4.5 billion.

Will history repeat? I do not know.

 

[dasherHampton]

I really believe you're going to well with that.

How much did you sell those puts for?

edit - wait a second - you bought those puts, didn't you. Having never bought options I have to wrap my head around it.

 

[jpiniero]

edit - wait a second - you bought those puts, didn't you. Having never bought options I have to wrap my head around it.

Protective Put. At least until it expires he could execute the options and sell the shares @ 25 if need be.

 

[woodman1999]

2nd family on my block in northern NJ is getting Tesla Solar installed today. Maybe they are more than just cars...

 

[jpiniero]

OK, this is funny/dumb. Tesla made a $438 million dollar profit but that includes $500 million in credits and $100M in bitcoin profit. Like actually making cars is unprofitable.

There's also the irony of selling green credits while investing in crypto which is anything but green.

 

[ponyo]

All the dumb gullible people just regurgitate the moronic TSLAQ talking point lies about Tesla being unprofitable at making cars. This kind of stupid thinking used to drive me crazy. I used to wonder how and why people were so stupid to believe these lies. But now I know how dumb and lazy most people are. So I'm going to take the same lazy route and just link Gary Black twitter feed which disproves this obvious lie without me doing any explanation or work. He does good job explaining and proving why the above statement from @jpiniero about Tesla losing money on every car they make is false and completely misleading.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387006036826107907

 

[ponyo]

2nd family on my block in northern NJ is getting Tesla Solar installed today. Maybe they are more than just cars...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386881081434124291

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386801193268170753

 

[jpiniero]

All the dumb gullible people just regurgitate the moronic TSLAQ talking point lies about Tesla being unprofitable at making cars. This kind of stupid thinking used to drive me crazy. I used to wonder how and why people were so stupid to believe these lies. But now I know how dumb and lazy most people are. So I'm going to take the same lazy route and just link Gary Black twitter feed which disproves this obvious lie without me doing any explanation or work. He does good job explaining and proving why the above statement from @jpiniero about Tesla losing money on every car they make is false and completely misleading.

Well, 430 is less than 500+100. Unless they are losing epic amounts of money on Solar City, this dude is wrong. I'd have to read the actual financial statements to see.

 

[woodman1999]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386881081434124291

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386801193268170753

Oh I know they are in reality. It's just for the most part I've only seen the cars around my area and now I am really starting to see the solar installations pop up. I am glad to be able to see in person some of what you've been saying for quite some time.

 

[woodman1999]

Dumped IBM today and dove into SAVA.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dumped IBM today and dove into SAVA.

I was sitting on some good profit in SAVA and decided to take it. Im hoping for a pullback so I can get back in. If you read the press releases they are going to attend some more conferences touting their drug, so who knows what will happen.

The only frustrating thing about SAVA is the small volume. I've gotten so used to stocks that trade at least 10M shares a day. The usual volume in SAVA is roughly 1.5M.

A trip to the $50s looks like its on the horizon, but I would love to get back in around $40.

Edit: Couldnt help it. Got back in.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Didn't know anything about SAVA, took a look just now. Seems like a high risk play considering their main candidate only has preliminary data readout on half the cohort in phase 2 in probably the most difficult indication. Plenty of room to explode, probably more room to implode.

 

[RichieZ]

FB is killing it! + 6.4% to all time high!

Due to that, today after hours my Roth IRA exceeded $1MM off of a total post tax $66K contribution over the years, fully after tax money is amazing! Sadly I only discovered backdoor ROTH IRA this year or it'd be even more.


(updated now that the marketed opened the next day )

 

[FelixDeCat]

^ Very nice.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Didn't know anything about SAVA, took a look just now. Seems like a high risk play considering their main candidate only has preliminary data readout on half the cohort in phase 2 in probably the most difficult indication. Plenty of room to explode, probably more room to implode.

I cant tell you SAVA will do TBH. Biotechs are usually lots of promise and hype that sometimes never pans out. I am surprised it has recovered so quickly from $32 to $47. I've converted shares to larger call option bet.

For the SAVA bull case:

Price has memory. In May/June there are catalysts with similar companies like Biogen's AD canditate that could move SAVA higher in sympathy and I think traders might try to take this back to its all time high of $115.


For the SAVA bear case:

Most AD drugs fail. SAVA may go sharply lower if BIIB, SAVA or any other AD drug candidate gets kicked in the ass. Gulp!! That could mean a price below $1. Even if a competitor gets the likely rejection, SAVA might fall sharply in sympathy.


For the Middle of the Road case.

Price stalls in the $50s then consolidates lower. Still a long way to go with SAVA. Maybe years.


Biotech investing is risky in general. SAVA is a one trick pony. If their drug fails, it will be doom for everyone. However, the market did not give it a $2 billion dollar valuation if they did not think they had a fair chance going forward.

Of course no one knows until the fat lady at the FDA sings or SAVA gets bought out. I have this fantasy that one of the high flying COVID stocks like Moderna with its $70B market cap or Novavax with its $18B market cap just buy SAVA with shares and give their stock a new reason to exist beyond a COVID drug. This is just a total wild and uniformed guess on my part and SAVA is very risky, so beware.

 

[dasherHampton]

I wouldn't put money into SAVA that I couldn't afford to lose.

SAVA getting bought out in an all-cash deal is pretty much the optimal scenario for me. I believe my puts would expire immediately and I'd keep the entire premium.

 

[woodman1999]

I am treating SAVA just like any other lottery ticket in my portfolio. Ride or die...

 

[dasherHampton]

For those of you buying SAVA stock check out these call prices:

Nov 17 $70 - 9.20
Aug 20 $60 - 8.70
Jan21 2022 $60 - 14.50

And I'm almost positive they'd all sell for more than that.

 

[uclaLabrat]

I cant tell you SAVA will do TBH. Biotechs are usually lots of promise and hype that sometimes never pans out. I am surprised it has recovered so quickly from $32 to $47. I've converted shares to larger call option bet.

For the SAVA bull case:

Price has memory. In May/June there are catalysts with similar companies like Biogen's AD canditate that could move SAVA higher in sympathy and I think traders might try to take this back to its all time high of $115.


For the SAVA bear case:

Most AD drugs fail. SAVA may go sharply lower if BIIB, SAVA or any other AD drug candidate gets kicked in the ass. Gulp!! That could mean a price below $1. Even if a competitor gets the likely rejection, SAVA might fall sharply in sympathy.


For the Middle of the Road case.

Price stalls in the $50s then consolidates lower. Still a long way to go with SAVA. Maybe years.


Biotech investing is risky in general. SAVA is a one trick pony. If their drug fails, it will be doom for everyone. However, the market did not give it a $2 billion dollar valuation if they did not think they had a fair chance going forward.

Of course no one knows until the fat lady at the FDA sings or SAVA gets bought out. I have this fantasy that one of the high flying COVID stocks like Moderna with its $70B market cap or Novavax with its $18B market cap just buy SAVA with shares and give their stock a new reason to exist beyond a COVID drug. This is just a total wild and uniformed guess on my part and SAVA is very risky, so beware.

Yeah, for sure it's risky. I work in drug dev so the difficulty isn't lost on me. Agree with your point on the one trick pony; companies with one candidate in an indication that's such a no-mans land have a really hard time bridging the valley of death.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Anyone know a way to more easily catch a rapid rise in stock price right after the opening bell? Or in mid day too. To buy as low as possible in a fast uptick, if there's some brokerage tool or something to help. Even with the buy submit button ready to hit it's still tough for me to buy early or mid way in the uptick. I often buy at the peak in that situation.

The rest is just an example of it and it may or may not help with my question above but it involves SAVA so it may be of some side interest.

This morning (Thursday) I missed the rapid uptick in SAVA right after the markets opened. It rose a few points quickly then gradually went a few points lower in the next few hours. I bought near the high point of the quick rise when I intended of course to try to get in a few seconds earlier. And paid $48.60/share four minutes after the open.

It plunged as the day went on and I was down a lot, down in the $thousands (a few thousand) and it was nerve wracking. But I hung on and as the Dow made an afternoon rise so did SAVA and I sold near that peak because it was a much slower rise than the pop at the open. So a soft not major player like me had a better chance to sell at that high. I lost $70 for the day trade but I was relieved compared to how much I was down 2 or 3 hours earlier.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Anyone know a way to more easily catch a rapid rise in stock price right after the opening bell? Or in mid day too. To buy as low as possible in a fast uptick, if there's some brokerage tool or something to help. Even with the buy submit button ready to hit it's still tough for me to buy early or mid way in the uptick. I often buy at the peak in that situation.

The rest is just an example of it and it may or may not help with my question above but it involves SAVA so it may be of some side interest.

This morning (Thursday) I missed the rapid uptick in SAVA right after the markets opened. It rose a few points quickly then gradually went a few points lower in the next few hours. I bought near the high point of the quick rise when I intended of course to try to get in a few seconds earlier. And paid $48.60/share four minutes after the open.

It plunged as the day went on and I was down a lot, down in the $thousands (a few thousand) and it was nerve wracking. But I hung on and as the Dow made an afternoon rise so did SAVA and I sold near that peak because it was a much slower rise than the pop at the open. So a soft not major player like me had a better chance to sell at that high. I lost $70 for the day trade but I was relieved compared to how much I was down 2 or 3 hours earlier.

The "problem" with SAVA is trading volume as I mentioned earlier. With low volume stocks its easy to knock it around up or down with very little shares. This is not really a good day trading stock. You have to have to have a belief and longer strategy.

I thought for sure SAVA was headed towards the 50's but with todays temporary break in momentum (it was bound to happen), I think we may be stuck in the $40s. Have to see what happens next week.

Another thing to keep in mind is that SAVA is up 50% from its $32 bottom just NINE days ago! It was time for a break.

 

[Tweak155]

Anyone know a way to more easily catch a rapid rise in stock price right after the opening bell? Or in mid day too. To buy as low as possible in a fast uptick, if there's some brokerage tool or something to help. Even with the buy submit button ready to hit it's still tough for me to buy early or mid way in the uptick. I often buy at the peak in that situation.

The rest is just an example of it and it may or may not help with my question above but it involves SAVA so it may be of some side interest.

This morning (Thursday) I missed the rapid uptick in SAVA right after the markets opened. It rose a few points quickly then gradually went a few points lower in the next few hours. I bought near the high point of the quick rise when I intended of course to try to get in a few seconds earlier. And paid $48.60/share four minutes after the open.

It plunged as the day went on and I was down a lot, down in the $thousands (a few thousand) and it was nerve wracking. But I hung on and as the Dow made an afternoon rise so did SAVA and I sold near that peak because it was a much slower rise than the pop at the open. So a soft not major player like me had a better chance to sell at that high. I lost $70 for the day trade but I was relieved compared to how much I was down 2 or 3 hours earlier.

Which broker are you using? Sounds like an execution problem. Also sounds like potentially you're using market orders when you probably want to use a limit order.

 

[zinfamous]

Anyone know a way to more easily catch a rapid rise in stock price right after the opening bell? Or in mid day too. To buy as low as possible in a fast uptick, if there's some brokerage tool or something to help. Even with the buy submit button ready to hit it's still tough for me to buy early or mid way in the uptick. I often buy at the peak in that situation.

The rest is just an example of it and it may or may not help with my question above but it involves SAVA so it may be of some side interest.

This morning (Thursday) I missed the rapid uptick in SAVA right after the markets opened. It rose a few points quickly then gradually went a few points lower in the next few hours. I bought near the high point of the quick rise when I intended of course to try to get in a few seconds earlier. And paid $48.60/share four minutes after the open.

It plunged as the day went on and I was down a lot, down in the $thousands (a few thousand) and it was nerve wracking. But I hung on and as the Dow made an afternoon rise so did SAVA and I sold near that peak because it was a much slower rise than the pop at the open. So a soft not major player like me had a better chance to sell at that high. I lost $70 for the day trade but I was relieved compared to how much I was down 2 or 3 hours earlier.

Sure! Just know ahead of time which stocks are going to rise rapidly, at what time in the day they are going to do that, and just buy them at the lowest point that day!