Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Put a stop in at 92 for SAVA. If it sells at that I am fine, but I'll give the stock a bit of a chance to recover. And since I am going away for a few days, it'll protect my downside while I am not paying attention.

Looks like you got out JIT.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I have a soft spot for that stock so my viewpoint will be biased in favor. I held shares overnight and dumped them premarket near $22. It's now hit a low of $17 and change in sympathy with the big correction in similar small ad cos like BLIN, both off 30% right now.

Its likely they will issue shares so watch out. But I do think $15 sounds fair, but honestly the market needs to find a fair value near term so even $12 is not out of the question. Will keep it on my radar.

Broke through $12 and hit next option strike at $10 on lowered guidance and proposed $40m stock offering.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Market is treacherous. Red everywhere. And the NAS is not even doen 1%.

 

[digiram]

Yeah. Everything in the red today. All my cryptos to. 😂

 

[Torn Mind]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/victoria-secret-billionaire-selling-745-145253758.html

And thus who bought the dip for L Brands and held up until now....well, they would have chosen well....

 

[FelixDeCat]

Thanks for input all. Anyway. Regarding the meme stocks lately. I can’t see what gme or amc can do to make their current valuation valid. Gme doesn’t produce anything and most people are moving to digital. Why would developers need gme for distribution at all. Doesn’t make sense. Even if they go e-commerce digital route. How do they compete with the likes of Amazon bestbuy even Newegg. I mean there’s a cdkeys.come already. 😂. I’m just trying to think of what people think gme can do to possibly turn things around.

The debate over the value of GME and AMC is never ending, so I dont waste time to try and figure them out. But they are fun to keep an eye on. I now watch several stocks broken down in categories -

1) The QQQ top 10 holdings so I can get the heartbeat of the Nasdaq 100, and place a bet on either the index stock or options.

2) The Banks/Financial group and has the biggest national banks and some regional names. You cant have a tradable intraday turnaround in the QQQs unless the financials participate.

3) The Crypto group - coin miners and holders / marketplaces - 11 stocks

4) The EV stock group - 14 stocks

5) Metals and mining stocks along with GLD/SLV trusts and NUGT/GDX - 10 stocks

6) Solars - 8 stocks including TAN

7) Travel stocks - cruise lines, airlines and Virgin Galactic - 8 stocks

8) REIT stocks and Exchange Traded Notes based on OIL/SILVER and QQQ covered call notes QYLD - 15 stocks

9) Weed stocks - 7 stocks, only the biggest names. No BB or penny stocks.

10) Biotechs - 9 stocks, constantly updating

11) Oil / Energy - 10 stocks. You cant have a great rally on Wall Street unless energy participates.

12) Hoopla stocks - 7 stocks. These names change all the time. One hit wonders, news makers and short termers go here. Includes AMC, GME and NEGG.

13) Small cap Advertising / Media stocks - 7 stocks

 

[Icecold]

Thanks for input all. Anyway. Regarding the meme stocks lately. I can’t see what gme or amc can do to make their current valuation valid. Gme doesn’t produce anything and most people are moving to digital. Why would developers need gme for distribution at all. Doesn’t make sense. Even if they go e-commerce digital route. How do they compete with the likes of Amazon bestbuy even Newegg. I mean there’s a cdkeys.come already. 😂. I’m just trying to think of what people think gme can do to possibly turn things around.

This is not investment advice and mostly speculation, but Gamestop is getting into blockchain/crypto/NFT's - https://nft.gamestop.com/ If they were to make a complimentary marketplace where every game purchase you make(whether the initial game or skins, etc.) is stored on the blockchain and can then be transferred or resold with it tracked on the blockchain and not be tied to a specific distribution network, that could be huge. It doesn't necessarily have to replace Steam it could be a complimentary marketplace, etc. that works alongside it if they can get Valve and others on board. There are a lot of other things they could be doing with NFT's as well such as limited edition collector's releases of digital games, etc.

That, along with their current financial position, general good will from the short squeeze and strong leadership changes seem to make a strong case for Gamestop being a great long term investment regardless of the potential for a massive short squeeze. AMC I'm not so sure on.

With that said, I am not so confident in that to have changed my overall investment philosophy and only have a pretty small amount of 'fun money' in Gamestop that I would be okay with losing.

 

[Torn Mind]

Being the newbie amateur I am, I decided to draw up a list of "stocks next door and in the community" watchlist.
Autozone, Grainger, Domino's, Costco, Novavax(there are a bunch of labs near where I live so yes in most places, Novavax will not be "next door"), Walmart, Home Depot, etc....

 

[FelixDeCat]

Being the newbie amateur I am, I decided to draw up a list of "stocks next door and in the community" watchlist.
Autozone, Grainger, Domino's, Costco, Novavax(there are a bunch of labs near where I live so yes in most places, Novavax will not be "next door"), Walmart, Home Depot, etc....

There are many advantages to creating groups of watch lists of related companies :


-You can spot trends, reversals or breakouts in individual names and participate in the momentum up or down.


-Stocks trade in sympathy. So if you have a major player in an industry either go up or down big, it tends to greatly influence the price of related stocks. If GM is down 5% on earnings, you can bet you will see a similar decline in Ford the same day. That is because of market making algorithms shoving the price down in a "neighborhood" of related stocks. That goes for cryptos, oil stocks, solar stocks, gold / silver stocks, chip stocks, etc. If Micron rallys, its likely all the chip stocks will rally.

The advantage here is that if you see a major player in a space move up or down progressively in one direction, it sometimes allows you to place a bet on a similar name in hopes of a sympathetic move. The algos are pretty quick to move before you do and do this automatically, its just a matter of figuring out quickly what the move is based on and judging how much weight it has on similar names. If MARA is up 5% and RIOT is up 2%, I will buy RIOT in a catchup trade and maybe make a quick buck.


- You can watch the top ten holdings of the QQQs, SPY, etc and trade an ETF stock long or short (or their options). In my case its the QQQ top 10.

 

[bookem dano]

Thanks for input all. Anyway. Regarding the meme stocks lately. I can’t see what gme or amc can do to make their current valuation valid. Gme doesn’t produce anything and most people are moving to digital. Why would developers need gme for distribution at all. Doesn’t make sense. Even if they go e-commerce digital route. How do they compete with the likes of Amazon bestbuy even Newegg. I mean there’s a cdkeys.come already. 😂. I’m just trying to think of what people think gme can do to possibly turn things around.

Read The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham.

The valuation of the MEME stocks isn't a valuation, it is speculation. If you decide to dabble in speculation make sure you're comfortable with losing your gamble.

The S&P 500 is a gamble too, but it adds and subtracts the up comers and the fall outs which is why it's a 'sensible' gamble.

You need to figure out your investment strategy and then execute it. I like to have the bulk in good sound investments and then I'll throw a gamble out here and there. You're not going to get rich quick in good sound investing, but you shouldn't lose your life savings either.

A sound investment today could be considered a gamble/speculation down the road.

Some people look at the market as how to maximize the return. Every move you make, there is a different move you could have made that would have been better. I like to try to minimize my downside or losses.

 

[Roger Wilco]

The US10Y is bombing hard.

NVDA and AMD are green at the moment though.

 

[herm0016]

any good buys out there? i have about 5k in cash right now.

i have been watching teekay tankers for a bit. interested if it drops to 2.75 or so.

 

[dasherHampton]

any good buys out there? i have about 5k in cash right now.

i have been watching teekay tankers for a bit. interested if it drops to 2.75 or so.

Some stocks I like maybe better than the pros do:

IQ
BSQR
AGEN

I think FUBO will go back up into the 30s.

 

[Artorias]

Quick synopsis on what's happening today?

Felix, I thought the US10 year was supposed to increase causing the markets to contract lol.

What's going on here?

 

[dasherHampton]

I made a nice profit today.

I sold EPD Sep 17 $24 calls for around $20,000 a while ago (EPD is my biggest single holding by far). Well, EPD just crashed to shit.

When I was scanning my positions I noticed the market value of my calls had crashed as well, to $5600. So I quickly lined up a buy order and I was able to buy them back for pretty much exactly that. Booked a $13,400 gain on that.

I then turned around and sold Dec $24 calls on the lot for just shy of $14,000.

Bonus - I get an extra dividend payout as well. Even on a crap day that felt nice.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Quick synopsis on what's happening today?

Felix, I thought the US10 year was supposed to increase causing the markets to contract lol.

What's going on here?

That's what happens when you have the Fed suppressing price discovery on bonds...ie..."quantitative easing" by purchasing bonds regardless of yield to keep rates as low as possible.

 

[FelixDeCat]

any good buys out there? i have about 5k in cash right now.

i have been watching teekay tankers for a bit. interested if it drops to 2.75 or so.

I find it hard to buy stocks when the market is falling, even just 1.5%.

However I did trade Marin and booked some profit.

Marin is still looking for a bottom. The are raising $40m in cash, which added to the $14m on hand is $54m total. They lowered guidance which kind of shocked the market and lost $3m in the quarter.

Meanwhile short interest is building. If this company can lower costs w/o sacrificing too much growth that would be good.

Baring a big market correction overall, I think the range will be 5.00 to 10 for now.

I am dying to take another position and ride it back to $15 or 20 but first the stock has to re-earn it. In the meantime we need a stable floor to build on.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Own some Nuro as speculative trade.

Edit: Sold to lock in profits.

Not sure where it's going but it was a nice ride.

 

[dasherHampton]

Ahh shit. I cost myself a ton of money by not waiting a bit to sell those EPD calls, just to see where EPD was headed. The same calls I sold yesterday for $14000 are now up to almost $20000.

But I'm not going to dwell on it. Since I've taken this new path my strategy has been "Take the money if its there" and I'm not going to deviate from that now. Its been very successful for me.

As I've said before: you have to have the mentality of an NFL CB. The only thing that matters is then next play. You have to forget everything else.

 

[dasherHampton]

I find it hard to buy stocks when the market is falling, even just 1.5%.

However I did trade Marin and booked some profit.

Marin is still looking for a bottom. The are raising $40m in cash, which added to the $14m on hand is $54m total. They lowered guidance which kind of shocked the market and lost $3m in the quarter.

Meanwhile short interest is building. If this company can lower costs w/o sacrificing too much growth that would be good.

Baring a big market correction overall, I think the range will be 5.00 to 10 for now.

I am dying to take another position and ride it back to $15 or 20 but first the stock has to re-earn it. In the meantime we need a stable floor to build on.

If I get put MRIN I'm just going to hold it as a long term play. I sold 10 $5 puts along with that one $15 one.

I'm not buying anything back.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If I get put MRIN I'm just going to hold it as a long term play. I sold 10 $5 puts along with that one $15 one.

I'm not buying anything back.

Im surprised MRIN is a low as it is. I thought $15 was a fair price. Until the stock flat lines somewhere will be the base everyone is looking for. I kept trying to find a tradable bounce and it just keeps going lower. The short interest has grown pretty big:

Marin Software Incorporated Common Stock (MRIN) Short Interest

Find the latest on short interest for Marin Software Incorporated Common Stock (MRIN) at Nasdaq.com.

www.nasdaq.com

 

[FelixDeCat]

LOL make $25k on NURO and sold at 13 yesterday.....now its $30 one day later....and I was too scared to own it that high.

 

[Torn Mind]

Friggin' Chipotle will not stop growing.

Looks like a long-term beast, along with Costco and Zebra.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Friggin' Chipotle will not stop growing.

Looks like a long-term beast, along with Costco and Zebra.

CMG has been a good long term winner when held for a year or more. Maybe Ill have lunch there today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Back in Marin