Discussion ***Official*** 2021 Stock Market Thread

[Torn Mind]

Cortexzyme went bonkers again today.

 

[dasherHampton]

Since I evidently don't feel comfortable if I don't have something to worry about I took advantage of Aterian's (ATER) predictable post EC price drop to sell a ton of puts.

There was a lot to like in there (their cash pile grew to like 70 million) but the fact remains this company is spec: they still lose money. But I don't have any other AI bets right now so whatever I guess.

The stock is at $4.80 or so. I sold Jan puts at $5 for a hefty premium. ATER would have to go under $3.40 for me to lose actual money. As for pipe dreams: They have a price target as high as $50.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think I got you beat Dash..I had a crazy day, up big then down big, then back positive for the day.

So like you I took a chance on a stock after hours and bought 3900 ZEV at $12.

The stock then quickly fell to $11.20. I was like "fuuuu"

You sure we are not related?

 

[dasherHampton]

I think I got you beat Dash..I had a crazy day, up big then down big, then back positive for the day.

So like you I took a chance on a stock after hours and bought 3900 ZEV at $12.

The stock then quickly fell to $11.20. I was like "fuuuu"

You sure we are not related?

We're probably related.

I bought back all of my FUBO puts and reset my position. It was like 15 contracts at 17.5 and 20 contracts at 15 (or maybe the other way around). So I cleared a lot of space.

Then I turned around and sold 10 contracts at $25 for just shy of $6000. FUBO options are still fat. I know its more risk but now I'm only exposed to $25000 worth of FUBO instead of like $50000.

And FUBO is going to integrate gambling into their platform. That's going to be huge imo.

 

[FelixDeCat]

We're probably related.

I bought back all of my FUBO puts and reset my position. It was like 15 contracts at 17.5 and 20 contracts at 15 (or maybe the other way around). So I cleared a lot of space.

Then I turned around and sold 10 contracts at $25 for just shy of $6000. FUBO options are still fat. I know its more risk but now I'm only exposed to $25000 worth of FUBO instead of like $50000.

And FUBO is going to integrate gambling into their platform. That's going to be huge imo.

TBH I was never really interested in this stock, but it is looking attractive.

 

[dasherHampton]

Hmmm. I've been the king of good timing lately.

FUBO just popped after hours.

 

[Michael]

Everytime I mess with solar stocks I get burned. But my go to stock is CSIQ. Don't ask why, I can tell you.

Even though I know the managment of CSIQ very well, I prefer TAN for solar stocks.

CSIQ is driven by their China listing event more than anything right now, but they have steadily invested in storage and storage projects instead of just panels and pure solar projects, and that investment is starting to pay off.

 

[dasherHampton]

I decided to make a bet on Poshmark today and sold 10 feb contracts at 25 for $4000. They lowered their Q3 guidance due to advertising issues but the CEO assured that its temporary. Earnings were good.

I guess kids love it due to "sustainability" (and cheap brand name clothing). Kids loving something is gold.

POSH is at 27.50 right now and the low price target is 47. I could see maybe having to step down on this one but hopefully not.

 

[dasherHampton]

Since I think I've seen XELA mentioned here before:

Why are March 2.50 puts so high? I checked them out on a whim and they're like 1.10. That's crazy high for a stock sitting at around 2.70 night now. I did a little checking and I couldn't find anything grossly negative so I sold 10 contracts on two different accounts for around $1100 each.

Is this company a ticking time bomb? Nothing seems to indicate that. At any rate: the risk isn't huge for me, just a few grand.

 

[jpiniero]

Since I think I've seen XELA mentioned here before:

Why are March 2.50 puts so high? I checked them out on a whim and they're like 1.10. That's crazy high for a stock sitting at around 2.70 night now. I did a little checking and I couldn't find anything grossly negative so I sold 10 contracts on two different accounts for around $1100 each.

Is this company a ticking time bomb? Nothing seems to indicate that. At any rate: the risk isn't huge for me, just a few grand.

Wouldn't you lose 14 grand if it goes to zero? That's assuming each of the options were 1000 per option.

 

[dasherHampton]

Naw, each contacts is 100 shares.

I'm putting up $5000 for 20 contracts and got around $2200 in premiums. So the most I can lose is $2800.

But there's no indication XELA is in any kind of trouble. Thats what makes the premium amount strange. XELA actually seems to have good ratings.

 

[jpiniero]

Naw, each contacts is 100 shares.

I'm putting up $5000 for 20 contracts and got around $2200 in premiums. So the most I can lose is $2800.

But there's no indication XELA is in any kind of trouble. Thats what makes the premium amount strange. XELA actually seems to have good ratings.

Well the stock is down 90% last 5 years.

 

[zinfamous]

Well the stock is down 90% last 5 years.

yeah man. That's where AMD was when I bought it at like, $2. What garbage.

haha, just kidding. That's when I started paying attention again. I only bought it at $4.65, ~3 weeks later. :\

but I'm joking on your serious point, which is solid. The other side is that a decent company with whatever fundamentals, for some inexplicable reason down 90%, is probably a good value, yeah? I dunno. I know nothing of this XELA and I don't really care (for the purpose of this post).

Your point is sound; but also runs counter to the risk necessity of what is, really, just fucking gambling. Anyone that puts any money--at any level--into the market and claims otherwise...is someone that is actually spending their days eating out their own assholes.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Naw, each contacts is 100 shares.

I'm putting up $5000 for 20 contracts and got around $2200 in premiums. So the most I can lose is $2800.

But there's no indication XELA is in any kind of trouble. Thats what makes the premium amount strange. XELA actually seems to have good ratings.

I have no patience for things like this, but I wish you well on your trade. I looked at the last ER and this was noted:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exela-technologies-inc-reports-preliminary-113000709.html

Recent quarterly loss of roughly $20M. Cash on hand (COH) of $136M. Assuming the current loss rate remains the same and does not worsen, that might mean that they have enough cash to survive at least 6 quarters or 1.5 years. However, revenues have continued to decline and losses have been all over the place. They also have $1.4B in debt which is above projected revs for 2021.

I like turn around stories and underdog stocks. Im confident XELA will survive to at least 12/31/21, assuming something catastrophic doesnt happen which is always a risk for all stocks in the market so there is no escaping that. The question is will it be able to hold $2.50 until next March?

Considering the $1.15 per contract that is being paid to wait about 7 months, that would give a price of $1.35 as a cost basis if you get assigned. Otherwise, you would make over 40%, which is quite tasty.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Speaking of catastrophes....

On Friday I was casually flipping shares in SESN a couple of times. I bought some shares and sold them for a meager $100 gain. Then I figured out TD Ameritrade had shares available to short so for fun I shorted 1,000 shares at $5.95 and covered around $5.89. This wasnt a serious trade, it was just for fun.

90 minutes after shorting 1000 shares of SESN and covering for a $60 profit, the FDA shocked and stunned the market 1 hour prior to the close and REJECTED the current drug application that SESN had submitted as insufficient and more data was needed. The stock immediately CRASHED by 80% and was halted, falling from $5.75 to just over 50 cents a share!! People were in absolute shock, some losing gigantic amounts of money.

It is never safe to assume anything about the FDA. Dont think they wont come along and deal a major setback causing shares to crater to near zero. That is what makes biotech "investing" very risky.

What made the SESN decision particularly shocking was that it was given one week in advance of the scheduled decision date.

 

[dasherHampton]

My BiL told me about a retail guy who was convinced to put his LIFE SAVINGS (about $50,000) into ANVS at over $100 a share. HIs only hope is that ANVS can somehow turn it around.

Its not funny, but its's funny. Putting your life savings into one risky stock?

As for XELA - according to the Yahoo finance page they've got new stuff brewing so I think it'll be ok. If it drops to its 52 week low ($1) I'll just sell it and take the loss (unless calls are decent).

 

[dasherHampton]

I tried undercutting a stock one last time on Friday. I haven't had much success with that move and if this doesn't work out I'm never trying it again.

I bought 1000 shares of ONTX at 4.96 and immediately sold 5 calls for Jan for $1800. I've been a real derp in the past on undercutting but hopefully this one works out for me.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This seems appropriate, so Ill just leave it here:

 

[FelixDeCat]

Looks like the long awaited market correction is here.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Looks like the long awaited market correction is here.

1.2%?

lol the actual definition is minimum of 10%, right?

My idea of a REAL correction is more along the lines of 25% with how much this pork-piggie is bloated.

 

[Torn Mind]

Only thing I know is that Costco hasn't been dragged down and is only going UUUUP. Talk about resiliency.

 

[FelixDeCat]

1.2%?

lol the actual definition is minimum of 10%, right?

My idea of a REAL correction is more along the lines of 25% with how much this pork-piggie is bloated.

I suspect we go back up as well. The fat lady will finally sing once we are done with all this excessive and never ending "stimulus spending."

 

[Torn Mind]

Lowes jumped up 10 percent as of this writing.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Lowes jumped up 10 percent as of this writing.

They should probably change the company name to Highes.

 

[RichieZ]

market is a bit shit, but i've started writing covered calls against some very large positions that I intend to hold indefinitely. starting with monthlies with low premium and low risk to get my hands dirty