Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[woodman1999]

Well that took a turn...

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well that took a turn...

Some idiots out there (and there are a lot of them), love to short volatility.

Today was about the sex allegations about Musk, triggering a sell off in Tesla shares, taknig the entire market with it. If Musk somehow or other got "me too'd" over this, he might have an impact on the company.

He is starting to suffer from Trump syndrome. Musk is an otherwise good person, however his ego has gotten so large, he is acting like Trump did - that is - act like you are better than everyone else and therefore can get away with anything and never be held to account.

It is starting to turn public opinion against him. I wish he would also stop making all those stupid faces for photographs that the media uses in all the news stories about him.

 

[jpiniero]

Well that took a turn...

Guessing that's options related.

 

[Charmonium]

The reality of spending $44B on his ego must have set in. Maybe he is slightly smarter than I thought.

Fortune mag says net worth is just under $220B. So in theory, he should be able to do this takeover on his own. If you really think the Twit is undervalued, then why invite all of these other VCs to participate.

The obvious reason is that he doesn't have the liquidity. But my opinion is that he knows Twitter won't be laying any golden eggs and he wants control of the company . . . but if that's going to hit his bottom line, then try to get control of the company while you take the haircut - as in skin head.

The market goes up and predictably this thread goes silent.

I miss my daily pessimism.

Oh my, gotta love the perma bears.

Unless there's some kind of belief that the Fed is going to change course, it really shouldn't go up.

No one actually believes the fed can get this right. But they're wrong.

He is starting to suffer from Trump syndrome. Musk is an otherwise good person, however his ego has gotten so large, he is acting like Trump did - that is - act like you are better than everyone else and therefore can get away with anything and never be held to account.

It is starting to turn public opinion against him. I wish he would also stop making all those stupid faces for photographs that the media uses in all the news stories about him.

So true. But Trump was just a high-functioning moron, Musk is not.

 

[jpiniero]

No one actually believes the fed can get this right. But they're wrong.

I suspect 3% isn't going to be enough to be effective. And with "only" half point hikes it's going to take a long time to get there.

 

[Charmonium]

That's probably true for the type of inflation they talk about in text books, but that's only because inflationary expectations are NOT already baked in and therefore much more difficult to dislodge.

What we have right now, is different and it's more a black swan born of same - global supply chain fragility has been fully exposed but while things will gradually get better, just pray that in the meanwhile, we have some decent luck. It doesn't even have to be all that good - as long as it doesn't suck.

Plus, covid still believes in you even if you (not you specifically, generally) don't believe in it. And that gift won't stop giving for a while. Although, you have to wonder if China isn't making things worse by their zero covid policy.

Xi Jinping isn't an idiot, so there's no way he doesn't see what all of the city lockdowns springing up daily are doing. So, he knows his vaccine is bullshit, he can get mRNA versions gratis and finally, he knows they actually work. And yet they seem to be more the bird faking a broken wing rather really having one.

 

[jpiniero]

The inflation they are trying to kill is the so called "Great Resignation"... people resisting RTO... that sort of thing. Not any theoretical supply chain problems.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If you haven't noticed they've been trying to park the S&P at 4000 and QQQ at 300, yet continuing bad news has caused continuing back to back new 52 week lows.

 

[jpiniero]

Looks like the stock market has gotten Monkey Pox hype.

 

[Roger Wilco]

Fed may already be considering pausing rate hikes?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1528842022404116487

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sadly, I bought 100 QQQ @ 290 and didn't sell. Fucking snapchat. 🤡

Edit..sold 6AM premarket 288.45

 

[AdamK47]

Sadly, I bought 100 QQQ @ 290 and didn't sell. Fucking snapchat. 🤡

Edit..sold 6AM premarket 288.45

Didn't think it would get back up to 290+?

 

[brianmanahan]

Looks like the stock market has gotten Monkey Pox hype.

now it looks like the stock market actually got monkey pox

 

[FelixDeCat]

Didn't think it would get back up to 290+?

They are determined in shorting the ever loving shit out of this market. It will either be 250 or 300 soon IMO.

 

[FelixDeCat]

now it looks like the stock market actually got monkey pox

The Fed needs to stop monkeying around and do two full 1% back to back hikes.🐒

We now need emergency rate hikes!

 

[AdamK47]

The fed meeting minutes get released at 2PM EST. It'll be fun to watch what happens.

 

[KB]

The Fed needs to stop monkeying around and do two full 1% back to back hikes.🐒

We now need emergency rate hikes!

I disagree. Raising the interest rates won't lower gas prices or get more wheat on the market. The current hikes appear to already be working and a slow increase is best. Home sales are down 16%, jobless claims are up, the tech stock and crypto bubbles burst as stocks are down 15 - 70%. Discretionary spending is down (non-discretionary is up due to inflation), inventories at stores are up and being discounted. There was just a story about how empty the strip clubs are as people aren't spending as much. Spending less can decrease inflation naturally.

Based on the Fed minutes it looks like the Fed agrees with me.

 

[KB]

If you guys haven't been already, the banks are the place to be. I am in USB, WFC, C, JPM et al. Mortgage rates are up 2.5% from the bottom to ~5.25%, but the rate on savings accounts has barely budged. Sure they will have fewer refis and mortgages, but their interest rate margin went up 50%, while their loan procurement rate wont be down as much.

 

[jpiniero]

If you guys haven't been already, the banks are the place to be. I am in USB, WFC, C, JPM et al. Mortgage rates are up 2.5% from the bottom to ~5.25%, but the rate on savings accounts has barely budged. Sure they will have fewer refis and mortgages, but their interest rate margin went up 50%, while their loan procurement rate wont be down as much.

CD rates have gone up. Maybe not at big banks, heh, but they have gone up.

Also I imagine people have switched to ARM instead of 30 fixed so the rate increase hasn't gone up that much. Of course that increases the default risk.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ooof. Nvdia bombs!

 

[AdamK47]

I just had an Owen Wilson WOW moment looking at VTI after hours trades.

 

[FelixDeCat]

If you guys haven't been already, the banks are the place to be. I am in USB, WFC, C, JPM et al. Mortgage rates are up 2.5% from the bottom to ~5.25%, but the rate on savings accounts has barely budged. Sure they will have fewer refis and mortgages, but their interest rate margin went up 50%, while their loan procurement rate wont be down as much.

I ❤ cheap stocks and divs.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Ooof. Nvdia bombs!

Just for giggles I shorted the stock before earnings at $167.5 and covered at $153.50. Since I did not know what would happen it was only 10 shares though (didnt want to lose big if I was wrong). Total profit? $138!

In an ironic twist I bought 100 shares at $157 after hours. Hoping for $160 tomorrow.

 

[dullard]

If you guys haven't been already, the banks are the place to be. I am in USB, WFC, C, JPM et al. Mortgage rates are up 2.5% from the bottom to ~5.25%, but the rate on savings accounts has barely budged. Sure they will have fewer refis and mortgages, but their interest rate margin went up 50%, while their loan procurement rate wont be down as much.

To clarify, you should only be looking at bigger banks with a diverse income stream. A lot of small banks make the vast majority of their profits from refis and mortgages. Those banks will be hurting immensely for a few years.

 

[AdamK47]

I'm glad to see Nvidia's "OEM and other" business fall 52% from last year.