Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,847
5,457
136
You're going to have to explain that connection.

The Man doesn't really care about (real) inflation and Biden/etc only really care about the political impact.

But what The Man does care about is the "Great Resignation"/"Quiet Quitting"/etc,etc. There's the perception that companies can't force people back in the office because too many will quit. And RTO is absolutely essential to having Cheap New Grads be effective because they need to be micromanaged.

So you need to scare white collar people into believing they will be out on the street if they quit over RTO and then can't get a new job. Crashing the stock market is how they are going to do that.

Once it is successful, the Fed will cut to zero and turn the money printer back on. But only then.
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
But in ETF form, your principal will decrease as rates go up, no? That’s why I was looking into buying them directly.

There’s no chance I’d buy two years directly though, only six months. I think there’s going to be too much opportunity over the next couple years to waste money on locking in a measly 4%. Looking at a mountain property up north in NH or VT as well

Thats why I like the ETF. They have a basket of 2 year treasuries all maturing at different times within the 2 year period. So yes as new 2 year treasuries come out with higher rates, older lower-yield treasuries lose some value, but some of those bonds will be maturing very soon, and they wont lose much. Then when the 2 year yield starts dropping again, then value will go back up.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,312
2,101
126
Ouch.



Guess I won't be cashing these any time soon lol.

That's what called being "married" to a stock.

You had plans for a one night stand but the pretty face kept you around long enough to wind up with a common law marriage.

Divorce is going to be pricey. May as well stick around for the kids.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,938
12,384
126
www.anyf.ca
That's what called being "married" to a stock.

You had plans for a one night stand but the pretty face kept you around long enough to wind up with a common law marriage.

Divorce is going to be pricey. May as well stick around for the kids.

Haha yeah I should have sold several months ago when it was higher but not quite as high as I wanted to sell at. I got greedy though. Now if I sell, I lose. So I may as well hold and hope for the best in the next few years. I have a few grand in that stock too... so ya that's painful lol. I would rather put that money on the credit line or into silver. But probably the credit line.

Another part of me thinks I should cut my losses and just sell in case it never goes back up, but think I'll wait and hope for the best.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,312
2,101
126
it's like the 80s all over again!

I was thinking more like the late 1970s...war, high inflation, expensive gas (was $5), outrageous RE prices and finally stagflation.

Eventually we may have to bring back an economic index made popular during the Jimmy Carter presidency...the misery index.
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
"The average S&P 500 decline during post-World War II recessions is around 29%. This average is skewed, though, in part due to the especially steep sell-off during the Great Recession. The median decline is around 24%. "


At this point we have roughly priced in a full recession, meaning the "worse is yet to come" is likely hyperbole.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,847
5,457
136
At this point we have roughly priced in a full recession, meaning the "worse is yet to come" is likely hyperbole.

This isn't a recession. Hell the unemployment rate is still trending downwards. This is a regression to the mean without the money printer.

Still got another 10% to go to even get to the pre-pandemic level.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,632
126
I've started to put my money where my mouth is. It might be a bit too early, so I am making small moves from cash equivalents into stocks. I'll likely move about 1% of my investment portfolio per week as long as stocks stay low. Today I bought VEUSX (Vanguard European Stock Market Index) due to weakness in Europe and thus not enough European stock value in my portfolio.
  • The worst performing months tend to be August and September. Heck, September is the only month with an average loss in the Jan 1950 to Dec 2021 time frame.
  • If this is a dead cat bounce, then those tend to last 1 to 3 months. That puts the next low in the Aug/Sept time frame.
  • The fed meets Sept 20/21, 2022. Our last bottom was just after the last fed meeting.
So, I'm going to say we might have another low in late September. If that will be a true bottom or just a local minimum is anyone's guess. But I'm likely to suggest buying then if the market is low.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,312
2,101
126
I've started to put my money where my mouth is. It might be a bit too early, so I am making small moves from cash equivalents into stocks. I'll likely move about 1% of my investment portfolio per week as long as stocks stay low. Today I bought VEUSX (Vanguard European Stock Market Index) due to weakness in Europe and thus not enough European stock value in my portfolio.

Ive been putting new money into stocks drip by drip, but the bulk of the balance is resting peacefully in cash.


I have seen some speculate that we may spend 3-5 years in a narrow channel. An example would be QQQ 200 to QQQ 300. Sell at 300, buy at 200, rinse and repeat.


Some have also said that ...... besides a myriad of world problems to overcome the economy will need a new massive technological breakthrough such as when the internet made its mark or when smart phones took over. Im not talking about another bubble, but something that will deliver long lasting benefits to human kind. When that technology takes over, whatever it is, you will see old highs broken and new ones reached.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,632
126
Ive been putting new money into stocks drip by drip, but the bulk of the balance is resting peacefully in cash.

I have seen some speculate that we may spend 3-5 years in a narrow channel. An example would be QQQ 200 to QQQ 300. Sell at 300, buy at 200, rinse and repeat.

Some have also said that ...... besides a myriad of world problems to overcome the economy will need a new massive technological breakthrough such as when the internet made its mark or when smart phones took over. Im not talking about another bubble, but something that will deliver long lasting benefits to human kind. When that technology takes over, whatever it is, you will see old highs broken and new ones reached.
I've been putting my new money into 401(k)s since June 2022. But yesterday was the first time I've moved existing cash into stocks for a few years.

I think you are being a bit too skeptical about the needs for a new high. We had significant highs in 2015, 2018, and 2021 without any major technological breakthrough. Heck even the late 1980s stock boom didn't have any significant breakthroughs yet. Sure the PC was just coming around, but home computer use didn't really take off until the 1990s. What we really need is more people being confident to invest money. And that confidence could come from a technological breakthrough, or just about anything else (such as government buying votes with tax cuts, buying votes with government spending, or the fed printing money).
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,847
5,457
136
30 year Mortgage rates are closing in on 7%. I have to wonder what all those people who bought in some far flung town are gonna do when they are forced back into the office.
 
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