Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[Train]

I went from way too cash heavy in 2019 (Sold my house for a huge gain) to now being cash poor. All the inflation numbers scared me away from holding any more cash. Then some large expenses popped up that I needed to dip into savings for. Now if something pops up I would have to sell off some stock. Usually not an issue except everything is down Hoping I won't need to sell any this year, and if I do, it's after an upswing.

 

[FelixDeCat]

30 year Mortgage rates are closing in on 7%. I have to wonder what all those people who bought in some far flung town are gonna do when they are forced back into the office.

They are probably going to find it harder to unload those properties w/o a discount.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I went from way too cash heavy in 2019 (Sold my house for a huge gain) to now being cash poor. All the inflation numbers scared me away from holding any more cash. Then some large expenses popped up that I needed to dip into savings for. Now if something pops up I would have to sell off some stock. Usually not an issue except everything is down Hoping I won't need to sell any this year, and if I do, it's after an upswing.

We have been at abnormally low rates and Fed meddling in the market rates for so long that an entire generation doesn't even comprehend what a relatively high rate environment looks like.

Pepperidge Farm remembers and so do I. A 10% mortgage used to be normal.

 

[Train]

We have been at abnormally low rates and Fed meddling in the market rates for so long that an entire generation doesn't even comprehend what a relatively high rate environment looks like.

Pepperidge Farm remembers and so do I. A 10% mortgage used to be normal.

I remember when I got a 6% mortgage and everyone was like "holy shit dude what a deal"

Now I'm at 2.875% for a 30 year feel like I could have held out a few months and gotten lower.

 

[JeepinEd]

I just got pre approved for a loan on a 2nd house at 6.8%. I'll be paying it off when I sell my current house, so not too worried about it.

 

[jpiniero]

Number of people drawing unemployment is still going down. Can't imagine Wall Street will be happy.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Timber!

Job market is too strong for Fed targets.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gee...I wonder what will happen in October?

 

[jpiniero]

Gee...I wonder what will happen in October?

I think people really underestimate how much of the post-2008 gains is solely due to the Money Printer.

 

[AdamK47]

VTI below $180 and dropping fast in the last few minutes of the trading day.

 

[AdamK47]

Bought two shares of VTI at $179.44. The slow trickle of new money to stock continues.

 

[PlanetJosh]

USAA Bank is paying 3.04% on a 18 month CD as of a couple days ago so I finally got a couple of them on Wednesday. I think you have to be in a US military family, or a veteran or active duty of the US military to open an account there, so that's a big limitation.

edit - They're not solely an internet bank, they have about 15 or so brick and mortar branches including tellers in 7 states in the US.

Also a couple times in this thread I bragged about the 4.5% dividends I'm getting on my Franklin income mutual fund FKIQX after the service fees. With JP Morgan brokerage. Which of course now isn't such a big deal compared to US treasuries. And the fund is down for me about 15%. Just hope they don't plan on reducing the dividends too much if markets end up in a 30-40% drop.

 

[JEDI]

Bought vbr (small cap value) last week at the 52week low. ($145).
didnt know i was buying a falling knife.

put in another buy order at 130 (10% lower).
dollar cost averaging.

So this is what happens when the fed stops printing $.
(aka the market was pushed by up the fed these recent yrs)

 

[brianmanahan]

thought about buying today, but i'm still working on amassing the fortune needed for a house down payment

 

[Red Squirrel]

Victoria Gold rebounding. Closed at $7.19 today. A few days ago it was down to 6.99. I didn't realize the markets were open today since it's a long weekend.

 

[AdamK47]

USAA Bank is paying 3.04% on a 18 month CD as of a couple days ago so I finally got a couple of them on Wednesday. I think you have to be in a US military family, or a veteran or active duty of the US military to open an account there, so that's a big limitation.

edit - They're not solely an internet bank, they have about 15 or so brick and mortar branches including tellers in 7 states in the US.

Also a couple times in this thread I bragged about the 4.5% dividends I'm getting on my Franklin income mutual fund FKIQX after the service fees. With JP Morgan brokerage. Which of course now isn't such a big deal compared to US treasuries. And the fund is down for me about 15%. Just hope they don't plan on reducing the dividends too much if markets end up in a 30-40% drop.

I use USAA for everything except brokerage. Use Fidelity for that. With USAA I have a bank account, two credit cards, and auto insurance. Use to have my mortgage and auto loans through them until I became debt free.

 

[dullard]

Bought vbr (small cap value) last week at the 52week low. ($145).
didnt know i was buying a falling knife.

put in another buy order at 130 (10% lower).
dollar cost averaging.

So this is what happens when the fed stops printing $.
(aka the market was pushed by up the fed these recent yrs)

I've been looking at getting VSIAX (the mutual fund version of VBR). However, it is the one part of my portfolio that hasn't seemed to drop enough for my tastes. That is what value stocks are for: retaining value. I would appreciate that 10% drop you are hoping for too.

 

[PlanetJosh]

I use USAA for everything except brokerage. Use Fidelity for that. With USAA I have a bank account, two credit cards, and auto insurance. Use to have my mortgage and auto loans through them until I became debt free.

At USAA besides the CDs I have checking, & savings, a credit card, and auto & condo insurance.

Edit - well I also have small amount in brokerage cash with USAA's partner broker Schwab. I had $thousands in it for trading in Micron earlier this year. But got tired of trying to time it so I stopped & took out the money long before Micron began its big dive six weeks ago. JP Morgan is my main broker.

 

[PlanetJosh]

So this is what happens when the fed stops printing $.
(aka the market was pushed by up the fed these recent yrs)

In addition to the fed pushing it up, apparently the pandemic gave an extra boost to many stocks with the stay-at-home people helping pc sales and so on. The GOOG and AAPL I owned doubled from early Jan 2020 to when I sold both in late July 2021 to take profits. But more to your point now things are different like a lot lower for me with my mutual funds down 15 to 18%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think people really underestimate how much of the post-2008 gains is solely due to the Money Printer.

We have needed monetary policy austerity since 2009 but never really got it.

Now that outrageous gains in nearly everything finally caused inflation not seen since the 1970s - they finally woke up.

The Fed also needs to dump its $10 Trillion dollar portfolio of debt it purchased since 2008. It is doing this now, but slowly. This debt that was bought to manipulate bond markets.

The manipulation is over, for now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

thought about buying today, but i'm still working on amassing the fortune needed for a house down payment

Pfft...Im trying to amass the fortune needed to go grocery shopping. Thanks to continued government stimulus, inflation has been persistent. Now with the prospect of cancelling billions more in student debt, its only going to get worse.

Thanks Biden!

 

[PlanetJosh]

Pfft...Im trying to amass the fortune needed to go grocery shopping. Thanks to continued government stimulus, inflation has been persistent. Now with the prospect of cancelling billions more in student debt, its only going to get worse.

Thanks Biden!

Those who say today's inflation is from supply chain problems and the pandemic point out that the percentage of GDP is almost the same for the trillions in stimulus in 2008 and in 2020. Could be a point in their favor but the 2020 stimulus was trillions spent over just 6 months compared to the 2008 stimulus trillions spread out over 5 years.

The 5 year spread from 2008 eased in the stimulus over time. Edit: And that may be why inflation when it rose back then did not get out of control. But the trillions in stimulus in only 6 months in 2020 could be a big reason for today's much worse inflation. And it's hard to argue against what you mentioned about the stimulus extending in an overall manner in some form from 2008 through today.

I'm a moderate not a conservative or a liberal and part of me sort of wants to believe current inflation is mostly due to supply chain issues and the pandemic. But I don't think I can buy that because of the reasons I listed.

 

[drnickriviera]

Can anyone tell me if or when SPIP would be a good buy? The yield looks nice. Would it bottom when the fed stops raising rates?

 

[zinfamous]

Pfft...Im trying to amass the fortune needed to go grocery shopping. Thanks to continued government stimulus, inflation has been persistent. Now with the prospect of cancelling billions more in student debt, its only going to get worse.

Thanks Biden!

yet another pack of lies.

 

[AdamK47]

People are in a buying mood today.