Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[biostud]

I often kick myself for having bought bad stocks. I need to recognize the (lucky) occasions when I ended up not buying a stinker, that I came so close to buying. e.g. Facebook in June.

The reason why I only invest in funds and ETF. I don't believe I can beat the market.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Shall we go back to the regularly scheduled programming of screaming about recessions and how more people need to be unemployed?

They've been waiting for a slowdown in jobs for sometime now but it's not happening.

I just heard that classicly speaking first you have earnings blowups followed big layoffs and finally a recession.

 

[Mermaidman]

Omg Amazon getting spanked.

That's more worrisome, from a broad perspective, than META's meltdown. At least Apple is holding strong among the FAANG. Is "FAANG" still a thing?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Supposedly....the Fed has leaked they will start to slow the pace of hikes and the market is rallying despite bad earnings.

This is typically the time of year for a rally. But how long does it last? And will Lucy take the football away again?

 

[Red Squirrel]

Not sure what this means but the stock I've been following (waiting for a good time to cash out) is showing more insider buys than sells now. For the longest time it was showing mostly sells.

TMX Money

I feel this is a good sign. I'm hoping it goes back up to like the $15 range at some point in the next few years then I'll probably cash out. I mostly want to pay off debt right now so probably going to get out of stocks as permitted. No sense in selling at a loss though so anything that's losing I will just keep in. My stocks are in a TFSA account, othewise I would sell them all at a loss to avoid capital gains, but don't have to worry about that since it's TFSA.

 

[AdamK47]

I'm hoping for a big Santa Claus rally at years end.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm hoping for a big Santa Claus rally at years end.

I think many are hoping for a Halloween and Thanksgiving one too.

 

[jpiniero]

I'm hoping for a big Santa Claus rally at years end.

Don't count on it. Current odds have dipped a bit but Triple Hike is still the heavy favorite this week, then double hike is a small favorite over triple in December.

Things could change in a hurry of course. But for now that looks like far off.

 

[dullard]

Don't count on it. Current odds have dipped a bit but Triple Hike is still the heavy favorite this week, then double hike is a small favorite over triple in December.

Things could change in a hurry of course. But for now that looks like far off.

I'm still trying to figure out who will be the third round of sellers.
1) There are those who sold at S&P ~4300 to ~4700.
2) Then there was the second batch who missed the opportunity to sell at the first peak, waited through the S&P ~3800 lows, waited for the typical dead cat bounce and sold above S&P ~4000.
3) Who is left? Who is just going to wake up now and see that the fed is raising interest rates and only now start selling? It isn't like it hasn't been obvious for many months that the fed was raising rates. Yes, there will be more interest rate hikes, but who has been waiting until now and suddenly thinks it is time to sell only if the fed raises rates in the next two meetings?

 

[jpiniero]

3) Who is left? Who is just going to wake up now and see that the fed is raising interest rates and only now start selling? It isn't like it hasn't been obvious for many months that the fed was raising rates. Yes, there will be more interest rate hikes, but who has been waiting until now and suddenly thinks it is time to sell only if the fed raises rates in the next two meetings?

People think the Fed will suddenly reverse course. Presumably they will sell if they don't get what they want.

 

[jpiniero]

M1

View a measure of the most-liquid assets in the U.S. money supply: cash, checking accounts, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits.

fred.stlouisfed.org

For S&G I looked at the M1 money supply levels. Yeah you are not ever going to get that normalized. It's only dropped about 2% and people are complaining about the money printer being gone.

 

[dullard]

People think the Fed will suddenly reverse course. Presumably they will sell if they don't get what they want.

I haven't heard of anyone thinking the fed will cut rates any time soon. The earliest reasonable estimate would be mid-2023 and that is highly unlikely.

 

[jpiniero]

I haven't heard of anyone thinking the fed will cut rates any time soon.

That's what these mini rallies are all about.

 

[dullard]

That's what these mini rallies are all about.

The rallies come from the fact that there are more bottom feeders (like me) than sellers.

 

[Ken g6]

M1

View a measure of the most-liquid assets in the U.S. money supply: cash, checking accounts, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits.

fred.stlouisfed.org

For S&G I looked at the M1 money supply levels. Yeah you are not ever going to get that normalized. It's only dropped about 2% and people are complaining about the money printer being gone.

I read the fine print. It's not really one graph. It's two different graphs of different things mashed together. Beginning May 2020 they started counting more savings accounts, including money market accounts.

 

[FelixDeCat]

.75

 

[jpiniero]

.75

Yep, Triple Hike is your winner. Didn't sound like they are done either from the statement but there is some language that could be considered dovish (?) so the market is up right now.

 

[PlanetJosh]

So about 15 minutes ago big tech stocks were up a lot, for example NVDA was up around 6 points. Then came Powell's statement a few minutes ago that it's premature to think there will be a pause in rate hikes. And less than a minute later NVDA drops about 6 points.

You'd have to be right on top of his live statements and trying to figure out how much the markets were sinking in order to time a day trade in a single tech stock today. Now as I'm typing this sentence NVDA gained almost 2 points.

Edit: And I respect those who trade long term for 5, 10 years and longer in tech stocks. I do the same in my mutual funds. And any day I'll go long for years in NVDA. I'm still waiting for the right time to make that buy. So all my talk of day trading is with the generally accepted tactic of never day trade unless you can afford to lose the whole buy or transaction.

 

[FelixDeCat]

How about that stock market...they say thumbs down 👎

 

[JM Aggie08]

Once again thankful I've held off on throwing a ton into admiral shares lol.

 

[jpiniero]

For next time, the rate odds are currently a toss up between double and triple hike. If Triple wins, that would mean that it would be tied for the highest rate since 2007.

 

[FelixDeCat]

How much do you want to bet they are going to play the "pivot" game again and try to rally back up....there is too much money selling call options not to try to trick the masses again.

 

[jpiniero]

Amazon is pausing hiring for corporate roles... which given the attrition they have is more or less the same thing as having layoffs.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Amazon is pausing hiring for corporate roles... which given the attrition they have is more or less the same thing as having layoffs.

Meta is firing 🔥 millions.

 

[linkgoron]

Amazon is pausing hiring for corporate roles... which given the attrition they have is more or less the same thing as having layoffs.

Given their famous 8% PIP culture, it's exactly the same.