Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
GOP only needs one more to win the House, but they are only ahead in 2 of the remaining races. And both of those are in CA so it might be some time before either race is called.

Assuming Powell won't speak until the House is settled, it could be awhile.

We are back in the stone ages. A long time ago we knew right away...now?
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
Does it really matter at this point. I mean, as the cliche goes, the results will be what they be. If the dems hold the house, it does become more likely that there will more spending bills, but take note of the fact that undr biden, the deficit has fallen to historic levels.

It's possible that Biden would ask for a different trajectory of the rates had the Dems kept the House. And yeah, wanting cuts sooner so the Dems could go spendy is one of them.

Either way I still don't see this quick cut to zero like Wall Street seems to think will happen.

I will say that this small of a majority in the House is unprecedented... so there's likely to be some craziness.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
We are back in the stone ages. A long time ago we knew right away...now?
Yes, we knew INCORRECTLY right away.


Facts are that when there are close elections, tons of voters, and allowable mail-in ballots (such as for overseas troops), then election results take more time than we want. California mail-in ballots aren't even due until today if they were postmarked by election day. Hard to count ballots that haven't been received yet.

And that is before you throw in the mail-in ballot hurdles. Such as if you changed your signature format (or name, or address), then the election supervisors have to contact you and "cure" your ballot to see if your new signature is correct. That really takes a lot of time (and often isn't performed if you vote in person so it clearly isn't intended for election security).
 
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Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,517
2,894
136
It's possible that Biden would ask for a different trajectory of the rates had the Dems kept the House.
The fed as I'm sure know, it at least technically independent. And I think probably 95% of the time it does act in a way that it at least believes will advance its goal of low inflation and low unemployment.

Remember that Powell was appointed by Trump and the reason for that is probably the influence wealthy GOP donors who don't want this moron fucking things up.

I'm a little unclear on why the street would be looking for very low interest rates. Right now, we have an inverted yield curve which is a classic harbinger of a recession. But that may or may not be true any more. The fed has learned how to play the money game pretty successfully and I still we will have a "soft landing."

the curve is kinda funky though. Rates decline thru year 10 and then bounce between 10 and 20. I'm not sure that's ever happened before.

 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
I'm a little unclear on why the street would be looking for very low interest rates.

So the Fed will once again give hedgies trillions of dollars to pump up stocks again.

the curve is kinda funky though. Rates decline thru year 10 and then bounce between 10 and 20. I'm not sure that's ever happened before.

At the same time, I do expect rates to go back to zero eventually and stay there for some time.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
Hopefully 2 years from now we can finally stop all the illegal immigration. After that we can crack down on the rampant crime and keep criminals in jail forever.

We also need government austerity. No more wasteful spending.

Just today Biden asked for 20 billion more in Covid spending....after declaring it over several months ago.

America will spend more in interest on the 30 trillion we owe than we spend on many programs.

We need to begin to repay the national debt.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
Hopefully 2 years from now we can finally stop all the illegal immigration.
Lets try to keep this a little less political (yes, I'm guilty of that too). One question for you to ponder and then post in P&N: if all immigration from anyone anywhere was 100% legal (that is if all illegal immigration was stopped), would the problems you perceive go away?
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,517
2,894
136
So the Fed will once again give hedgies trillions of dollars to pump up stocks again.
I don't think that's physically possible. If you're raising rates, you can't be adding liquidity. If you do, what happens is the market looks at the fed and say go f* yourself. And rates in the market will find their own levels.

What seems to be happening now is the fed is selling assets. That drains liquidity and therefore supports higher rates.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
I don't think that's physically possible. If you're raising rates, you can't be adding liquidity. If you do, what happens is the market looks at the fed and say go f* yourself. And rates in the market will find their own levels.

I'm talking about cutting rates back to zero first. That's what these rallies are all about. People think the Fed is going to cut to zero and turn the money printer back on soon. So far, they've been wrong and the market has tanked once they realize they are wrong. This time? We'll see.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
and where was this talk when trump was in office?
a big chunk of that $30T was under your precious orange monkey and his tax cuts for the rich.

Anyone who knows me....knows...that going back to at least 2008 (and maybe sooner).... that I have railed against the increasing national debt and its growing amount. I did it no matter who was in office!

I have also been worried about a default and posted warnings about it consistently. And nobody cared.

The debt apologists favorite arguments are "percentage of GDP"..."we will grow our way out of debt"...."pay it back with inflated dollars"..."we are just recycling money"....blah blah blah...none of it came true...we just kept adding to the debt and politicians never give a fuck about it.

There is no excuse for 30 trillion in debt that we will likely never pay back.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
Think about it - how are we going to pay back 30 trillion dollars of national debt?

1) We have to completely eliminate the deficit
2) We have to trim back government spending across the board, including SS spending and our favorite jobs program - defense spending.
3) We have to generate at least $1 trillion or more in "excess" annual budget surpluses.
4) We have to overrule all the stupid politicians that will make bleeding heart arguments to give it away to the needy of all kinds
5) And FINALLY we can retire the FIRST of 30 YEARS of outstanding debt!

It is unimaginable that we as a national can overcome all these hurdles and keep our resolve for 30 years to get it done.


...that also assumes no pandemics for 30 years, no natural disasters for 30 years, no wars for 30 years, etc, etc, etc

 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,853
12,337
126
www.anyf.ca
We're in a similar boat here in Canada. Trudeau has created more debt during his term than all prime ministers combined and continues the out of control spending. We're in serious trouble.
 
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biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,387
4,936
136
Think about it - how are we going to pay back 30 trillion dollars of national debt?

1) We have to completely eliminate the deficit
2) We have to trim back government spending across the board, including SS spending and our favorite jobs program - defense spending.
3) We have to generate at least $1 trillion or more in "excess" annual budget surpluses.
4) We have to overrule all the stupid politicians that will make bleeding heart arguments to give it away to the needy of all kinds
5) And FINALLY we can retire the FIRST of 30 YEARS of outstanding debt!

It is unimaginable that we as a national can overcome all these hurdles and keep our resolve for 30 years to get it done.


...that also assumes no pandemics for 30 years, no natural disasters for 30 years, no wars for 30 years, etc, etc, etc
Do you think US stock growth rates would be affected if they did try to pay off the debt?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
Do you think US stock growth rates would be affected if they did try to pay off the debt?

Short term? Obviously, yes. Less government spending and cutbacks will lead to more job cuts, and perhaps a gigantic recession. That is because our economy has become so reliant on the government's tits and deficit spending that it is going to be painful.

So many people rely on our bloated defense sector it would take a lot of adjustment in the workplace to pick up the slack. Perhaps they can transition to healthcare. They need workers at all levels.

This is referred to as "austerity". In certain countries, drastic spending cuts have led to massive protests and mob like behavior in the streets.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,387
4,936
136
Short term? Obviously, yes. Less government spending and cutbacks will lead to more job cuts, and perhaps a gigantic recession. That is because our economy has become so reliant on the government's tits and deficit spending that it is going to be painful.

So many people rely on our bloated defense sector it would take a lot of adjustment in the workplace to pick up the slack. Perhaps they can transition to healthcare. They need workers at all levels.

This is referred to as "austerity". In certain countries, drastic spending cuts have led to massive protests and mob like behavior in the streets.
Obviously two very different countries on so many levels but the "socialist" country seems to be better at controlling public debt than the capitalist. (Also knowing that lots of large European countries has the same debt problems as US)

Maybe it is just very difficult for these large countries to make the necessary reforms.

Denmark:
DateDebt ($M)Debt (%GDP)Debt Per Capita
1992102,10266.77%$19,708
US:
19924,486,29068.61%$17,489


Denmark:
2021145,89936.60%$24,841
US:
202129,463,730128.13%$88,697


Denmark National Debt 2022 | countryeconomy.com

United States National Debt 2021 | countryeconomy.com
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
Think about it - how are we going to pay back 30 trillion dollars of national debt?

1) We have to completely eliminate the deficit
2) We have to trim back government spending across the board, including SS spending and our favorite jobs program - defense spending.
3) We have to generate at least $1 trillion or more in "excess" annual budget surpluses.
4) We have to overrule all the stupid politicians that will make bleeding heart arguments to give it away to the needy of all kinds
5) And FINALLY we can retire the FIRST of 30 YEARS of outstanding debt!

It is unimaginable that we as a national can overcome all these hurdles and keep our resolve for 30 years to get it done.


...that also assumes no pandemics for 30 years, no natural disasters for 30 years, no wars for 30 years, etc, etc, etc
#1 is all that needs to be done. If the budget is balanced, then all debt will slowly expire as it is paid off. This is because the budget already includes debt and interest payments. Thus #2, #3 and #5 are all included in #1. #4 is unrelated and you forget #4B (the massive unnecessary spending that dwarfs #4).
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
#1 is all that needs to be done. If the budget is balanced, then all debt will slowly expire as it is paid off. This is because the budget already includes debt and interest payments. Thus #2, #3 and #5 are all included in #1. #4 is unrelated and you forget #4B (the massive unnecessary spending that dwarfs #4).

Define unnecessary spending. The government sure cant.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
Most of the national debt is owed to ourselves.

I would rather be paid in gold and silver coin. We used to have currency backed by precious metals...then we discovered the voodoo magic of monopoly money.

But that discovery was not new. The Romans debased the currency and some historians argue it contributed to the fall.
 
Reactions: Red Squirrel
Dec 10, 2005
24,304
7,165
136
I would rather be paid in gold and silver coin. We used to have currency backed by precious metals...then we discovered the voodoo magic of monopoly money.
Gold and silver are also monopoly money - they have value for the same reason that fiat currencies have value: people believe they can trade the currency for goods and services. Without that universal belief, gold and silver would be relatively worthless shiny rocks.
 
Reactions: dank69 and dullard

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
Oh snap. This Bullard guy is doing the dirty work for Powell... suggesting that they might even go as high as 7%. I think he's exaggerating but he's definitely giving the impression that they aren't cutting any time soon. Needless to say stocks are down.

Plus unemployment numbers were good.
 
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