Discussion ***Official*** 2022 Stock Market Thread

[jpiniero]

Looked and a double hike is the heavy favorite for next time and then another double hike in June.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Seems like the market is in "we dont care" mode.

QQQ $375?

 

[ultimatebob]

Seems like the market is in "we dont care" mode.

QQQ $375?

The market is recovering, mostly because it overcorrected. I mean, did Russia invading the Ukraine really stop a bunch of people from buying new iPhones and XBoxes? Maybe if you live in the Ukraine or Russia, but probably not anywhere else. If that's the case, why did AAPL and MSFT stock drop 15%? The short answer is that it shouldn't have.

 

[FelixDeCat]

There is a fundamental argument about the Fed right now. Ukraine only exacerbated the negativity. Do we fight the Fed and buy stocks anyway? Or sit on cash for years? How about dollar cost average for 24 months?

We have grown accustomed to an accommodative Fed that suppressed rates by printing money and buying bonds since essentially the crash of 2008 and reinforced by the crash of 2020.

However with runaway inflation the Fed has no choice to but to raise as quickly as possible and sell trillions in debt securities because it is VERY late in doing so, cow towing to the whiny ninny nannies for far too long.

Money managers with billions in 401k money have to buy stocks every month. A buy up was inevitable but not necessarily the last thing to happen, its only for now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I was watching an interesting video about the 1920s in color from the beginning to the end of the decade. We all know how it ended.

And they said back then what they always say, "despite the crash, the economy is fine and stocks will go back up". While overall it is true, it took 25 years for the market to overtake the 1929 high.

I set the time index to the end of the decade:

 

[AdamK47]

Many protections are in place to prevent another great depression. There were glaring problems that weren't acted upon since people at the time had the silly notion of the market only going up. There are always gaps in protections as was evident in the recent great recession. We always learn from it and adapt in the hopes of making systems stronger.

 

[jpiniero]

The market is recovering, mostly because it overcorrected. I mean, did Russia invading the Ukraine really stop a bunch of people from buying new iPhones and XBoxes? Maybe if you live in the Ukraine or Russia, but probably not anywhere else. If that's the case, why did AAPL and MSFT stock drop 15%? The short answer is that it shouldn't have.

Just from valuation both companies stock should be way lower than it is now. The question is going to be if the money printer really gets turned off, what will happen to the stock market.

 

[Chaptorial]

Tesla is looking to do another stock split in the near future and is asking for shareholder approval. I'll be voting yes and continue to buy and hold this stock. The lower price point, if it happens, will be a great time for new investors to get in.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I cashed in some of my stocks that were not doing so well so I can just get the cash, and then ended up putting it on the credit line. I have a couple renewable energy related stocks where they basically tanked completely, going to leave the money there as there's no point taking it out, I will get pennies. One of my mining stocks doing really well though, if I cashed it out now I'd make over a grand. It's kind of tempting but I think I will leave it.

I'm not that good at picking stocks and was only into this for fun but decided to get into silver and gold instead.

Not really a get rich scheme though, but a secure way to have tangible assets that I can physically hold and can ideally keep up with inflation.

I may look into GICs or bonds or other form of investment too.

 

[AdamK47]

My buys early Tuesday have done well so far.

And continue to do well.

 

[ultimatebob]

Woah, there are custom wallstbets Silver coins? That's awesome!

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

S&P up again to 4,630, but still short of the near 4,800 high.

 

[biostud]

2/3 of my investments this year are back in green. Both sustainable index funds.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

Many protections are in place to prevent another great depression. There were glaring problems that weren't acted upon since people at the time had the silly notion of the market only going up. There are always gaps in protections as was evident in the recent great recession. We always learn from it and adapt in the hopes of making systems stronger.

But things seem to be shifting to other extreme.

If things continue on as they are, the pandemic may be the dividing point between the haves and have nots. A final window of opportunity to take out some dirt cheap loans (~2.5%) against assets that hadn't yet inflated to today's levels presented itself not long after the pandemic started. Housing in my area is now 70-80% more expensive than the summer of 2020.

Gold being under $3000/oz, let alone $2000/oz is probably the last illusion that things are still "working as intended".

 

[jpiniero]

S&P up again to 4,630, but still short of the near 4,800 high.

I think Wall Street's fears of the Fed taking inflation seriously have subsided. But I am starting to wonder if the Fed might poke a little bit.

 

[Red Squirrel]

AMC is up a bit. Just sold my 1 share for $8 profit. I'll try not to spend that all in one place.

Waiting to see what Blackberry does and will probably sell that too. I'm in the red right now so will hold.

 

[FelixDeCat]

nm

 

[Red Squirrel]

Woah, there are custom wallstbets Silver coins? That's awesome!

Yeah I had to get those when I saw them.

 

[AdamK47]

Got curious and calculated the true value of my positions when taking into account inflation. Most are at break even when I calculate year over year. VTI, for example, was at $215 a year ago. Now it hovers around $230. No gain in true value. At least my money hasn't been sitting losing value.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bad sell-off again.

 

[dullard]

Got curious and calculated the true value of my positions when taking into account inflation. Most are at break even when I calculate year over year. VTI, for example, was at $215 a year ago. Now it hovers around $230. No gain in true value. At least my money hasn't been sitting losing value.

I know it isn't much, but you should also add in the ~$3 in dividends per share to math like that.

 

[AdamK47]

I know it isn't much, but you should also add in the ~$3 in dividends per share to math like that.

True, there is that.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think more people are starting to realize that we were in fact in a bubble that ended in 2021. Historians will refer to that as the "Fed Bubble of 2021" where extreme monetary liquidity, excessive government spending and endless stimulus resulted in market speculation not seen since 1929 or even 1999-2000.

Speaking (again) of the year 2000 crash, I remember the first hard pull back of February 2000 followed by the sharp rally of March 2000 that was followed by deeper lows in June and July. The market struggled to bet back up as people were trying to call a bottom but more "dot coms" were filing for bankruptcy as liquidity dried up. Things were stagnant for 2001 and 2002. You could buy Netflix, Amazon and Google very cheaply.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The QQQs have a 52 week range of $408 and bottomed at $316, before rallying back up hard to $370.

52 Week Range

316.00 - 408.71

We will probably see a leveling off as Q1 earnings start next week from banks through April/May as tech earnings are released. Earnings estimates have been revised downward, so its likely most companies will beat lowered numbers. That is not a reason to buy but a REASON TO SELL.

I think that because of Fed tightening and sharp balance sheet reductions / rates spiking, it is very likely we see the QQQs at or lower than $300 by year end.

2023 will be probably be flat with no real direction. Good time to collect dividends.

 

[AdamK47]

Another fed meeting minute release day and yet again another down day. Meeting minutes for a meeting that happened weeks ago. People get so spastic.

It wouldn't surprise me if the big investors run through the documents with an algorithm looking for keyworks that then move positions. All done within milliseconds upon the release of documents. Every fraction of a second can provide an advantage over a competitor.