Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Even at 1.76%, the S&P has a long ways to go to get back to my magic 4,700.

 

[jpiniero]

Single Hike is back to being the favorite. We'll have to see what the Fed does next week.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold FRC at 29.25 pre market

Shorts are speculating Fed goes .50 anyway because inflation must be tamed and ECB raised by same amount.

 

[PlanetJosh]

The cash assistance from big banks to help First Republic bank in California does not seem to be helping very much. But the trading day isn't over yet. So if mid size and community banks continue to falter a lot or fail are the posters hare going to put their cash in big banks? Edit: I've used only big banks for decades, JPM Chase, Wells Fargo, B of A, and USAA.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The cash assistance from big banks to help First Republic bank in California does not seem to be helping very much. But the trading day isn't over yet. So if mid size and community banks continue to falter a lot or fail are the posters hare going to put their cash in big banks? I've used only big banks for decades, JMP Chase, Wells Fargo, B of A, and USAA.

Wedbush says FRC is worth $5. Sounds like they are short if you ask me. But who knows, so I sold because I had a profit.

Personally I see no problem with the other regional banks but of course I'm not privy to their books. It's obvious they have likely taken a hit on their bonds but most (are supposed to) mitigate this risk by holding short term bonds like 3 month term that is constantly rolled to newer rates as they change.

With all the hysteria and media hype some might have seen some large deposits leave causing forced bond selling but the Fed is currently backstopping those bonds under an emergency program temporarily so...

I have one of my HSAs in a regional bank. It's obviously under the $250k limit.

But I too prefer biggest banks because of ATM networks.

 

[PlanetJosh]

But I too prefer biggest banks because of ATM networks.

You go out enough to use ATMs? Just joking in regards to you.

I'm generally a stay at home, but I've had to go inside banks sometimes to do things not really allowed online. Edit: Trying to get an art business going at home and to use those images on casual clothing in a clothing business someday

Meanwhile at home still trying to time NVDA and some tech stocks in online trading. It's now in the $250s per share, it's currently up a few points today while the Nasdaq is down over 100. Can you believe that s*** it just keeps going. I missed the boat big time failing to buy it at $145 just weeks ago. Edit: I get it, NVDA is taking advantage of the AI craze, but I didn't see it or glossed over it.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Not sure what to tell you. Seasonably this is the time to accumulate. If you look at the 5 year chart on Nvidia it has regained a lot of lost ground on AI hype which hasn't materialized yet. I'm guessing it keeps going higher even at these nosebleed prices but then who can say for sure? The Fed decision is next week. It's going to good or bad for stocks, nobody can say for sure right now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Central banks try to calm markets after UBS deal to buy Credit Suisse

(Reuters) -Some of the world's largest central banks came together on Sunday to stop a banking crisis from spreading as Swiss authorities persuaded UBS Group AG on Sunday to buy rival Credit Suisse Group AG in a historic deal. UBS will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old...

finance.yahoo.com

"UBS will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses in a deal backed by a massive Swiss guarantee and expected to close by the end of 2023. "

Credit Suisse shareholders will receive 1 UBS share for every 22.48 Credit Suisse shares held, equivalent to 0.76 Swiss francs per share for a total consideration of 3 billion francs, UBS said.

Under the deal with UBS, some Credit Suisse bondholders are major losers. The Swiss regulator decided that Credit Suisse bonds with a notional value of $17 billion will be valued at zero, angering some of the holders of the debt who thought they would be better protected than shareholders in a rescue deal announced on Sunday.

Shareholders get rough 87 cents each and bond holders get ZERO on shotgun marriage of UBS and CS, closing this year. We will see how long this lasts before bond holders bitch hard enough to get some money.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Was anyone struck with the thought that $3B isn't really very much to help resolve the Credit Suisse problem? I'm not an expert in corporate takeovers, but the $3B seems like an indication that Credit Suisse isn't a big enough player to cause any serious financial fallout in the US if Credit Suisse were to fail.

 

[IronWing]

LME rocked by new nickel scandal after finding bags of stones

The LME has discovered bags of stones instead of the nickel that underpinned a small handful of its contracts at a warehouse in Rotterdam.

www.mining.com

 

[PlanetJosh]

^Maybe a sign I should get into commodities trading, would be my first time trying it.

 

[AdamK47]

Wish I had set my buy limits a bit higher yesterday. Didn't make any. Futures up by a good amount.

Have a good feeling about tomorrow.

 

[jpiniero]

Wish I had set my buy limits a bit higher yesterday. Didn't make any. Futures up by a good amount.

Have a good feeling about tomorrow.

Rate odds greatly favor the Single Hike but this might be the first time in some time there's some doubt as to what they will do.

I will say... now is the time to bring the hammer down if they are going to do it. I still don't think the pivot is happening until 5-6% unemployment.

 

[FelixDeCat]

My guess .5

The UK reported a 10% inflation rate today.

 

[jpiniero]

Single Hike is your winner. Nothing suggests a pivot any time soon.

 

[biostud]

My guess .5

The UK reported a 10% inflation rate today.

They are so deep in the dodo….

 

[FelixDeCat]

They are so deep in the dodo….

That's why I think we see an 8% Fed rate before this is done. That is 3% higher from today's rate.

Used car prices and home prices are going back up as well. Pretty much guarantees another hike.

 

[jpiniero]

Hmm.. current rate odds are only 50-50 for a hike next time. But they also seem to think the pivot would be in July. I'm not seeing it, unemployment isn't even increasing any.

 

[biostud]

Hmm.. current rate odds are only 50-50 for a hike next time. But they also seem to think the pivot would be in July. I'm not seeing it, unemployment isn't even increasing any.

Unemployment is not a goal in itself....

 

[jpiniero]

Unemployment is not a goal in itself....

Basically the odds are saying they expect the economy to crash by the end of the year. The stock market would do very well if that does happen.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Basically the odds are saying they expect the economy to crash by the end of the year. The stock market would do very well if that does happen.

Wishful thinking. 🤔

There will be no cuts.

 

[PlanetJosh]

Some big banks are telling their staff not to steal customers from troubled mid size banks. Can you imagine how angry a bank employee would feel if their career was harmed or even ended by upper management for just trying to better their families lives by getting more business?

I can see that upper management is thinking of the greater good. But I tend to look for ways to create a divisive atmosphere so that's why I made the angry bank employee comment.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-jpmorgan-citi-tell-staff-204553940.html

 

[jpiniero]

Wishful thinking. 🤔

There will be no cuts.

Only thing I can think of is that they are going to crash the economy and blame Trump/Trump's arrest on it. The timing works.

A cut is now the favorite in June btw.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Come on market, lets have a nice sell off...

 

[jpiniero]

Back to almost 50-50 for a hike next time. No change is still the slight favorite.