Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[jpiniero]

Rate odds have swung back to no change for next week... but a single hike is the favorite for July.

 

[dullard]

Felix, you really confuse me. You have been insisting on large rate increases for the last year. Example:

Hopefully they mention a full 1% increase possibility today.

But, when we get rate increases, you complain about the end effects of rate increases. Example:

The only ones who need to cut rates are banks on their credit cards. It should be illegal to charge more than 19% interest on one.

Credit card rates were about 15% before the interest rate hikes. What would you expect other than credit card rates going above 19%? When the fed rate goes up roughly 5%, the credit card rates go up roughly 5%, from ~15% to ~20%.

Or did you somehow want rate increases that don't impact interest rates?

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Thoughts?

S&P 500 exits bear-market territory. Will Big Tech's rally finally spread to the broader stock market?​

MarketWatch|22 minutes ago
MARKET EXTRA A broad stock-market rally Thursday had the S&P 500 officially exiting its longest bear-market run since 1948. Investors want to know if the move is for real or merely a ...

 

[FelixDeCat]

Felix, you really confuse me. You have been insisting on large rate increases for the last year. Example:


But, when we get rate increases, you complain about the end effects of rate increases. Example:


Credit card rates were about 15% before the interest rate hikes. What would you expect other than credit card rates going above 19%? When the fed rate goes up roughly 5%, the credit card rates go up roughly 5%, from ~15% to ~20%.

Or did you somehow want rate increases that don't impact interest rates?

You make a good argument however there is a heap big difference between a 5% cost of funds and a 20% credit card. I have 1 card which has a 30% rate on cash advances and 25% on purchases right now.

And for them to be charging 20% when rates were zero for all those years was really the best thing to ever happen to them.

I've always paid my cards in full but use them daily to get the cash back or get the zero percent money for the fixed period it's offered. I'm also not a fan of opening and closing accounts, although I know some are into that.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Thoughts?

S&P 500 exits bear-market territory. Will Big Tech's rally finally spread to the broader stock market?​

MarketWatch|22 minutes ago
MARKET EXTRA A broad stock-market rally Thursday had the S&P 500 officially exiting its longest bear-market run since 1948. Investors want to know if the move is for real or merely a ...

I'm waiting for record highs again before getting back in.

I'm still in MMs.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I just got about $550 I wouldn't have had if I didn't open two new cards. And no, I won't be paying interest. In fact, I don't even know what the rates are on my cards.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

S&P finally back over 43. But is it only a dream?

 

[Artorias]

If you're paying interest on a credit card you're doing it wrong. Get a line of credit for way less if you need to borrow money.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Thankfully sold my Carvana calls for a healthy profit. 5 yesterday for 8 (100% one day return) and one this morning for 9.40.

I now have shares at 24.40 (small speculative position).

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Up 4.93 and .11% is still up, right?

 

[Relaxasaurus]

Sold this too soon. Got back in today. Long Aug $20 calls at $4.

A consolidation pull back is likely so beware.
I just have 6 call options.

Is their main competitor Carmax? After using a car delivery service I never want to visit a dealership again.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Is their main competitor Carmax? After using a car delivery service I never want to visit a dealership again.

Technically every car dealership in America is their competitor. They also have 9 billion in debt, 1 billion of which they tried to refinance recently but could not. While they claim they will turn a profit this quarter, its probably not going to make much of a dent, unless they cut costs enough to continue to maintain profitability. That is why I sold the call options which had a sizable gain and only have a few shares (which Im already upside down on). If it hits $17 I will sell and consider buying calls again around the next earnings report if its around $15.

This one could turn out to be another Bed Bath situation - too much debt to survive. Or the CEO might pull off a turnaround which is what they are trying desperately to do. During the pandemic boom they sacrificed profits and took on lots of debt to grow as big as they did. It propelled the stock from $32 in 2019 to $335 by 2021. Instead of taking on debt they should have just issued shares.

Refinancing problem:

https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2023/06/02/carvana-cancels-debt-for-equity-exchange-offer.html

So yes, there is still lots of risk of bankruptcy with Carvana. The best solution will be to turn their debt into company equity by diluting existing shareholders.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Does this change anything meaningful?

Nasdaq to buy financial software company Adenza in $10.5 billion cash-and-stock deal​

ABC|3 hours ago
Nasdaq is buying software company Adenza from software investment company Thoma Bravo in a cash-and-stock deal valued at $10.5 billion

 

[jpiniero]

S&P finally back over 43. But is it only a dream?

Something like less than a quarter of the S&P stocks are over the average. This is basically turning into Tech Bubble 4.0 starring AI. We'll see if the Fed ruins the party on Wed.

 

[AdamK47]

Back to 4% inflation.

Energy and food prices stabilizing.

The many dip buys I made through the last year and 1/2 should pay off.

 

[jpiniero]

Back to 4% inflation.

Energy and food prices stabilizing.

Energy, maybe... but food still seems like it's continuing to go up. And shelter (where I am) is on fire right now. Doesn't seem like the conditions are there for a pivot... only no longer increasing.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Will BBY be Overstocked?

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/06/13/bed-bath-and-beyond-receives-overstock-bid/6401686675540/

U.S. News // 1 hour ago
Overstock.com makes $21 million 'stalking horse' bid for Bed Bath & Beyond

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Next for the S&P, 44, or 43?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Next for the S&P, 44, or 43?

I remember when it was 666 and then hit 777 and I thought that was too much!

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Is this a market story? Don't really know.

U.S. News // 3 hours ago
Judge grants FTC's request for temporary block of Microsoft's Activision deal
June 14 (UPI) -- A U.S. federal judge late Tuesday granted the Federal Trade Commission's request to block Microsoft's multibillion-dollar acquisition of video game developer Activision Blizzard amid an ongoing review of the deal.​

 

[FelixDeCat]

Is this a market story? Don't really know.

U.S. News // 3 hours ago

Judge grants FTC's request for temporary block of Microsoft's Activision deal

June 14 (UPI) -- A U.S. federal judge late Tuesday granted the Federal Trade Commission's request to block Microsoft's multibillion-dollar acquisition of video game developer Activision Blizzard amid an ongoing review of the deal.​

Nah. This was expected.

 

[FelixDeCat]

My guess is a .25 increase.

 

[jpiniero]

No Hike is your winner but still nothing suggesting a pivot.

 

[FelixDeCat]

No Hike is your winner but still nothing suggesting a pivot.

I think that happens in 2025.

 

[AdamK47]

Zip zip zoomy zoom