Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,826
5,442
136
It does if you want a slumping economy to flourish.

I know there's a lot of people out there who think the stock market = the economy, but I wouldn't call the US slumping.... at least compared to say Europe.

Now we might get to that point. It might take a real slumping economy to say get people to stop resisting RTO.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
I know there's a lot of people out there who think the stock market = the economy, but I wouldn't call the US slumping.... at least compared to say Europe.

Now we might get to that point. It might take a real slumping economy to say get people to stop resisting RTO.
I'm just saying that would be the reason to cut rates to zero. It wouldn't be for the stock market.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,826
5,442
136
I'm just saying that would be the reason to cut rates to zero. It wouldn't be for the stock market.

See what I think is going to happen is that the Fed will cut to zero once they achieve their objectives. If they have to crash the economy to do so, then they will. But that is optional.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,536
3,442
136
See what I think is going to happen is that the Fed will cut to zero once they achieve their objectives. If they have to crash the economy to do so, then they will. But that is optional.

I think that the feds couldn’t care less about middle management buzzwords like RTO and quiet quitting.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
Pretty sure he's fine, think he cashed when stock was really high. There was always signs that the stock would never stay that high, even Elon himself once said it was overvalued.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
I didn't follow too much of the 2022 thread, but out of curiosity, is Ponyo still a Tesla millionaire, or did he lose his shirt?
He rage quit the forums a little while back. People were picking on him, probably too excessively, when TSLA plunged in value.
 
Reactions: Captante

Captante

Lifer
Oct 20, 2003
30,301
10,800
136
He rage quit the forums a little while back.

That was FAR from the only reason folks were picking on him.

That guy seemed to specialize in "leading with his chin" lol.... however despite our differences I still hope he and Mrs Ponyo are doing okay... also I miss his food-related posts.
 
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Reactions: cytg111

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,536
3,442
136
I've been in them for a while. 13,17 and 26 look nice. Trying to stay short term till they get closer to peak then go longer term. Funding them through online savings so still getting 4% while they aren't in treasuries.

I doubt the gov would actually default on debt?? It would screw them up from being able to deficit spend out the wazoo later right?

Pretty sure the new crazies would be perfectly happy to default on debt. To “force spending cuts” because for some reason a global financial crisis that makes everyone worse off is the better answer.

Anyway I threw some money into the next 26 week bill sale just to see how the process goes. Probably going to dump a bunch more $10k lots of my short term money in if that’s smooth. Also earning 4% in my online savings account but closer to 5 is that much better.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
That was FAR from the only reason folks were picking on him.

That guy seemed to specialize in "leading with his chin" lol.... however despite our differences I still hope he and Mrs Ponyo are doing okay... also I miss his food-related posts.

Ponyo and I disagreed sometimes and he loved rubbing it in my face on occasion.. but overall I appreciated his contributions to the forum.

And for the record I am just a thousandaire, but money is not everything. Life has many facets some of which cannot be bought or sold and also happen to be the most valuable, like your health and family.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,826
5,442
136
Pretty sure the new crazies would be perfectly happy to default on debt. To “force spending cuts” because for some reason a global financial crisis that makes everyone worse off is the better answer.

Don't think the rebellion is big enough. If McCarthy cut a deal with Joe, he'd need, what, 10 House GOPers to go along with it?

That being said... stay tuned. I read somewhere that the Trump Tax Cuts (& the SALT cap) need to be renewed at some point.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,533
2,909
136
Folks - you've GOT to get used to the idea that the fed has this fiat currency shell game figured out.

What does that mean? No more boom to bust to boom business cycle bullshit. Things will get slightly worse than usual then slightly better then slightly worse.

The market will continue to overreact until it figures this out.
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,815
143
106
Something posters may know of this already but if you made a lot in capital gains from stock sales in a year then your social security benefits will do down a lot. For the older folks on the forum.

I used to think like many still think that selling stocks for a profit doesn't make your social security go down. But it does and so does selling a house or just about anything else if the profit is big enough to trigger deductions from social security. So it's not just working at a job for a wage while receiving social security that causes your benefits to go down. They simply raise your Medicare deduction which takes effect at the start of a new year.

Man it can cost you up to near $500 per month for Medicare deducted from your social security check. Like if you sold some big tech stocks in 2021 when they were near their all time highs. Not that I'm in that high of an income bracket.

The IRS reports tax returns to social security/medicare. And you can read the deduction chart right on the official Social Security government site here:

 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
Something posters may know of this already but if you made a lot in capital gains from stock sales in a year then your social security benefits will do down a lot. For the older folks on the forum.

I used to think like many still think that selling stocks for a profit doesn't make your social security go down. But it does and so does selling a house or just about anything else if the profit is big enough to trigger deductions from social security. So it's not just working at a job for a wage while receiving social security that causes your benefits to go down. They simply raise your Medicare deduction which takes effect at the start of a new year.

Man it can cost you up to near $500 per month for Medicare deducted from your social security check. Like if you sold some big tech stocks in 2021 when they were near their all time highs. Not that I'm in that high of an income bracket.

The IRS reports tax returns to social security/medicare. And you can read the deduction chart right on the official Social Security government site here:


Im not at the SS stage yet but Im planning on winning the lottery next week so this is good to know.
 
Reactions: cytg111

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,533
2,909
136
A couple of years ago I sold a couple assets for 80k but I didn't notice any increase in my deductible but then I have Part D so maybe that's why. No decrease in benies either. However it's very possible that I wouldn't have noticed.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
The debt limit fight is giving me the heebeejeebees. Ive decided to go back into cash for now. The irony is that most MM funds (the only choice I have in my 401k) holds 3 mo Tbills.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
The debt limit fight is giving me the heebeejeebees. Ive decided to go back into cash for now. The irony is that most MM funds (the only choice I have in my 401k) holds 3 mo Tbills.
Not sure why you would be worried about something that has happened for decades now. It's the usually political point scoring by each side until the very last minute.

I don't let my mind feed into the political narrative of the week when it comes to investing for the long term.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
Not sure why you would be worried about something that has happened for decades now. It's the usually political point scoring by each side until the very last minute.

I don't let my mind feed into the political narrative of the week when it comes to investing for the long term.

That along with rate increases is what makes me worry. Everyone is pointing to the showdown of 2011 and the 15% market decline.

Anyway I am going to be averaging down with new money but the main balance is out.

Honestly I don't like doing this because its hard to get back in at the right time but at least small amounts are going in.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
Honestly I don't like doing this because its hard to get back in at the right time but at least small amounts are going in.
You're last statement is exactly why you should not worry about a possible decline. Even if you can brilliantly time the exit, what are the chances that you'll get back in at just the right time? You have to predict the future correctly twice to win. Once when getting out at just the right time and once when getting in at just the right time. The vast majority of people fail at one or both. It is really hard to change your mindset on a dime and go from sell, sell, sell to buy, buy, buy.

Just let it ride. Usually you'll do better they trying to time a temporary small dip.
 
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