Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
Market dipped sharply at the end of the last trading day of August. Hit a buy limit on VOO at the very last second. Wasn't expecting that.



Didn't get to any of my other limits. I'm sure there is going to be plenty of buying opportunities in September.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
Bad news is good news.

Unemployment up to 3.8%. Pre-Market liking it.
It is pretty much the best news we could have gotten. The number of jobs grew (good for people) but slowly (good for inflation). But the main impact was a surge of 600k people joining the workforce. That should really help take up the slack of unfilled jobs without wage inflation (good for inflation). This 600k extra people is why the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8% since not all of them got a job right away.

Couldn't have asked for a much better report if you want a soft landing. That said, the stock market increase didn't seem to last.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
The market is pricing in a November quarter-point rate hike. Everything down in premarket.

PATH holdings its head above water.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
I'm really in awe of how fast AMC is imploding. APE conversion, 10:1 reverse stock split, then potentially issuing 40 million new shares. Down more than 30% yesterday to a record all-time low and another 8% so far today.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
Enjoy your future rate hike fellers.

Core inflation trending back upwards at .3%. This excludes the shenanigans SA is doing with oil prices.

Got six figures to put back into the market. Been waiting for this good news.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,536
3,442
136
I’m seeing that excluding shelter from CPI and inflation would have been 1% annualized … At what point are we smart enough to say that fed rate hikes aren’t the right hammer to fix that problem and that building more housing is? In fact at least for buying a home the fed is making it even worse by locking people in. Inventory here is historically low. I kind of want to move but refuse to drop my 2.8% 30 year loan at the moment and same for many other people.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511
Dec 10, 2005
24,351
7,233
136
I’m seeing that excluding shelter from CPI and inflation would have been 1% annualized … At what point are we smart enough to say that fed rate hikes aren’t the right hammer to fix that problem and that building more housing is? In fact at least for buying a home the fed is making it even worse by locking people in. Inventory here is historically low. I kind of want to move but refuse to drop my 2.8% 30 year loan at the moment and same for many other people.
But the character of the neighborhood! Who will protect the endless sea of strip malls, parking lots, and stroads from the scourge of duplexes and townhomes [in suburbs] and denser infill in cities?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
Okay, so who was lucky enough to buy ARM at $55, now $65 after hours. 🤪

I'm tempted to buy a handful 🤔
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
Almost did but chickened out considering how IPOs have gone in the past.

This one has momentum behind it. Fueled by a glut of any new tech IPOs that aren't SPACs in combination with this one being connected to AI chip technology.
 

bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
I was more excited about ARM when Nvidia was trying to pull it under it's wing.

I agree with AdamK47 - I'm not a big IPO fan. I got into Cava and am down 24% in one account and 18% in another. I'm glad it was only a small amount of shares, but my plan is for the long term.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
Almost did but chickened out considering how IPOs have gone in the past.

This one has momentum behind it. Fueled by a glut of any new tech IPOs that aren't SPACs in combination with this one being connected to AI chip technology.
I was more excited about ARM when Nvidia was trying to pull it under it's wing.

I agree with AdamK47 - I'm not a big IPO fan. I got into Cava and am down 24% in one account and 18% in another. I'm glad it was only a small amount of shares, but my plan is for the long term.

My guess is that speculators might try to drive the valuation closer to Nvida, which has a $1.12T market cap. Current ARM mc is $65 billion.

The reason why I think it may see a higher price is that Nvidia trades at 40 x revenues of $26 billion. If ARM did the same that would be 40 x $2.5B or $85 per share. So anything about $85 is likely to be very "toppy" and might be the top.

Once options are available its likely going to stabilize until earnings. After earnings....look out....if ARM doesnt deliver! Or if does deliver!
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
Triple witching day. Broader market is pulling down ARM. Might be a good opportunity to buy today.

Edit - Put in an order for 800 shares with a buy limit of $62.
 
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Reactions: FelixDeCat

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
Triple witching day. Broader market is pulling down ARM. Might be a good opportunity to buy today.

Edit - Put in an order for 800 shares with a buy limit of $62.
Took my nibble out of ARM.


Was looking for an easy short-term gain and didn't want to stay in it on the last hour of a triple witching day. Sentiment could change over the weekend.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
Congrats Adam. Every time Im sitting on good profit on a stock, the market comes up and takes it all away. Better you take it than them!
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
I'm good with the small wins. Easier to achieve regularly. Better for my mind and blood pressure.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,826
5,442
136
Enthusiasm for any future rate hikes seems to have died off. OTOH it's going to be awhile for any possible rate cuts.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
Sentiment could change over the weekend.
And sentiment did change. Down 7% right now. And that is still in the lock-up period meaning many big players can buy but not sell. I can see a dip when that occurs and if that happens, then it'll be a buy.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,309
2,913
126
And sentiment did change. Down 7% right now. And that is still in the lock-up period meaning many big players can buy but not sell. I can see a dip when that occurs and if that happens, then it'll be a buy.
Some talking head on Bloomberg was predicting it going down to a $40 level. Not sure if he was mainly focused on fundamentals. It's connected to AI so who knows where it might actually go.
 
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